Written by: @lanhubiji
There is an interesting study that might overturn some people's views on the nature of BTC assets:
Although everyone says BTC is digital gold, as of now (the future is uncertain), BTC has shown completely different market performance from gold.
One aspect is that BTC's market performance in the 60-day window after a black swan event is even higher than gold + S&P 500.
So far, every time there has been a major shock, BTC's gains have outperformed gold + S&P 500.
This may mean that BTC's resilience and performance are still underestimated by people.
This data comes from a Mercado Bitcoin study (led by Rony Szuster) + River Financial's 60-day window data.
Performance in this time window:
Average BTC return: about +18% to +37% (some samples from River data show ~18%, but all significantly lead)
Average S&P 500: about +3% to +3.5%
Average gold: about +4% to +6.2%
Specific data:
January 2020 U.S.-Iran conflict escalation: Bitcoin 60-day return about +20%, S&P 500 down 7%, gold up 6%. (River Financial data);
March 2020 pandemic outbreak: Bitcoin up 21%, while gold and S&P 500 lagged significantly, gold +3%, S&P +2%;
February 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict outbreak: Bitcoin up 15%, S&P 500 up about 3%, gold increased by 9% in some windows but overall lagged behind BTC. (River data)
March 2023 U.S. regional bank crisis: Bitcoin up 32%, S&P 500 up about 4%, gold up 11%. (River data)
April 2025 post-U.S. tariff announcement: Bitcoin rose 24% in the following 60 days, gold up 8%, S&P 500 up 4%. (Mercado Bitcoin study)
Recent 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict related window: Bitcoin has shown relative strength since the escalation, with some reports indicating a short-term rise of about 2.2%, while gold and S&P 500 have shown declines or lags during this period (data is still incomplete)
River Financial data analysis shows that in several similar events, Bitcoin's average 60-day return is significantly higher than the S&P 500's approximately 3% and gold's approximately 4%, with Bitcoin showing a 100% positive return across the entire sample, demonstrating very high consistency.
Why does BTC show a "king's rebound" after a black swan?
Rony Szuster's view is:
In the early stages of a crisis, investors often quickly sell assets to obtain cash liquidity, which can drag down various assets, including gold, and Bitcoin is no exception, often experiencing significant short-term pullbacks.
However, in the following 60 days, as policy easing expectations or risk appetite recover, Bitcoin's sensitivity to liquidity is the highest—its fixed supply and digital scarcity amplify its elasticity.
You cannot conclude solely based on the first few minutes of a crisis.
Bitcoin is not a traditional "slow-to-warm safe-haven asset," but a super rebound asset that seizes the greatest opportunities in the "panic → easing → rebound" chain.
It combines the characteristics of digital gold with high beta growth traits, thus leading in multiple events.
The conclusion of this study is: Bitcoin is the best-performing asset overall in the past decade, despite high volatility.
(Lastly, it should be noted: the data samples are primarily from black swan events after 2020, and while there is consistency, the sample size is still limited. The past does not predict the future.)
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
