News: The "Duet" of Geopolitics and Macroeconomic Sentiment

• Core Events:

  • Trump's Diplomatic Statement (Bullish/Volatile): According to recent reports, Trump stated that Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz and accept a two-week ceasefire. This news caused WTI crude oil to plummet about 10% instantly, while gold rose instead of falling (once jumping close to 4800), reflecting that the market is not only digesting safe-haven sentiment but also speculating on the potential easing of monetary policy that could result from the sharp decline in crude oil.

  • Central Bank Buying Dynamics (Long-Term Bullish): China’s gold reserves increased by 160,000 ounces at the end of March, marking a "17-month consecutive increase." Endorsement from major powers provides solid long-term support for gold prices.

  • Interest Rate Environment (Bearish): Despite the rise in gold prices, CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in April is nearly zero. The game between the high-interest environment and the zero-yield asset of gold remains a significant resistance at present.

• Long and Short Impact: Short-term liquidity shifts caused by crude oil volatility may impulsively push up gold prices, but if geopolitical easing expectations solidify, caution is needed regarding the potential retreat of safe-haven premiums.

2. Technical Aspect: Sideways Consolidation at High Levels on the 4-Hour Chart, Pay Attention to Resistance Pressure

• Current Price: 4783

• Moving Averages:

  • MA(120) provides strong support near 4651.

  • Short-term moving averages MA(5)/MA(10) are intertwined, showing that the 1-hour chart is in a non-trending consolidation phase.

• Indicator Analysis:

  • Pattern: A clear "high breakout and then sideways" trajectory can be seen on the 4-hour chart, with 4838 being the key resistance level.

  • Trend: The price is currently near the mouth of the Alligator (Alligator Indicator), in a consolidation period. If it cannot effectively hold above 4800, there is a need to retest the support at 4700.

• Key Levels: * Resistance Levels: 4800 (psychological level), 4838 (recent high).

  • Support Levels: 4740 (dense trading area), 4692 (MA5/former support).

3. Operational Direction: Range Consolidation, Defensive Counterattack

• Position Strategy:

  • If you are currently flat: It is recommended to wait and see, looking for a signal to short when the 4800-4810 range is confirmed as resistance, or look for a long position if a pullback stabilizes near 4720.

  • If you hold a short position: Set a strict stop-loss above 4845. If the price breaks below 4760, move the take-profit lower.

  • If you hold a long position: Should reduce positions near 4820, guarding against profit-taking sell-offs after geopolitical benefits fade.

• Position Suggestion: It is suggested that the total position not exceed 13%. The current range is wide (4700-4840), and high leverage can easily lead to liquidations from random fluctuations.

4. Risk Alerts and Plans

• Risk Point One: Geopolitical Rumors Reversal. If the two-week ceasefire agreement falls through, safe-haven sentiment may erupt again, and gold prices could directly challenge the 5000 mark.

  • Response: Holding positions is strictly prohibited; if resistance levels are breached, stop-loss must be enacted.

• Risk Point Two: Liquidity Squeeze Triggered by Oil Price Crash. In extreme cases, a significant oil market collapse may cause outflows in gold's commodity attributes.

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