Short ceasefire between the US and Iran, BTC soars and breaks 72,000 dollars.

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Last night, U.S. President Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, stating that "entire civilization will perish tonight," and hinted that military action could be taken before Tuesday. However, just as the market held its breath, today he suddenly announced – that bombing and attacks on Iran will be suspended for two weeks.

This unexpected turn ignited the entire crypto market, bringing a long-awaited significant rebound.

OKX market data shows that early this morning, BTC surged from $67,700 to above $72,000, with a 24-hour increase of 4.01%; ETH also rose from $2,060 to above $2,270, with a 24-hour increase of 6.03%; SOL climbed from $78 to $87, with a 24-hour increase of 5.92%.

Coinglass data shows that in the past 12 hours, the market experienced liquidations of $530 million, with short positions suffering liquidations of up to $402 million and long positions at $129 million; additionally, nearly 120,000 people were liquidated in 24 hours.

Aside from the brief easing of the U.S.-Iran situation, what other hidden variables are truly igniting the market? After the surge, is the crypto market's outlook a reversal starting point, or just a flash in the pan? Odaily Planet Daily will break this down one by one in this article, helping you understand this battle of emotions and funds.

The U.S.-Iran Ceasefire is Brief and Conditions are Hard to Meet; Future Rebounds May Be Hindered

Although the U.S.-Iran ceasefire officially took effect today at 8 AM Beijing time, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has invited representatives of both sides to Islamabad for talks, the market remains full of doubts regarding the sustainability of this ceasefire. The ceasefire conditions announced by Iran's Supreme National Security Council set extremely high thresholds, including that the Strait of Hormuz must be controlled by Iran for passage, the U.S. must withdraw troops from all bases in the region, lift all sanctions and unfreeze overseas assets, fully compensate for war losses, and ultimately confirm through United Nations Security Council resolutions. The Iranian side has also expressed "complete distrust" of the U.S., emphasizing that negotiations will not take place under threats or deadlines.

Trump has previously issued multiple deadline threats but has also paused or extended actions, keeping the market highly vigilant about whether "this time is a real ceasefire." In addition, the Israeli Times reported on the 8th, citing a security official, that despite the U.S. and Iran announcing a ceasefire, Israel "continues to strike against Iran," leaving significant uncertainty in the regional situation.

In the short term, the rebound in the crypto market mainly relies on short squeezes and a momentary repair of risk appetite, rather than trend confirmation. The market has already shown suspicious sentiments, with frequent comments on platform X stating "the ceasefire won't last 24 hours" and "just wordplay." If negotiations yield no results within the two-week window, or if missile strikes and Israeli military actions occur, conflicts could escalate at any time.

Therefore, the morning's rebound appears more like a stage return driven by events, rather than a confirmation of the bottom.

Bitcoin ETF Funds Warm-Up: Stopping the Decline in March, Continuing Net Inflow in April

According to SoSoValue data, since 2026 Bitcoin spot ETFs have shown a significant divergence in trajectory.

From January to February, Bitcoin spot ETF funds continued to flow out, with a net outflow of about $1.6 billion in January and approximately $206 million in February, clearly pressuring the crypto market at the beginning of the year. Entering March, Bitcoin spot ETF funds rebounded strongly, with a net inflow of $1.32 billion in a single month, ending the previous four months of outflows and becoming the first positive monthly inflow in 2026, as well as the first monthly positive inflow since October 2025.

Entering April, Bitcoin spot ETF funds have maintained a net inflow trend. On April 6, the single-day net inflow reached $471 million, the highest single-day inflow since February 25, and also the sixth largest single-day inflow of 2026. Specifically, BlackRock’s IBIT led the way with a net inflow of about $182 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC with approximately $147 million and ARK 21Shares ARKB with about $119 million, while most of the remaining ETFs recorded positive inflows or were flat.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on platform X that U.S. "Baby Boomer" investors have quietly poured significant funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs amid a pressured market environment and frequent macro negatives; this inflow has, to some extent, filled the funding gap since the beginning of the year.

Outlook for the Crypto Market

Bloomberg Analyst: Unless Bitcoin Can Recover $75,000, the Risk of Declining to Lower Levels Still Exists

Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone stated that unless Bitcoin can recover $75,000, the risk of declining to lower levels still exists; if the current price cannot hold above $70,000, it will face a new round of correction pressure after short-term holders lose confidence.

Glassnode: Bitcoin's Resistance Above is $72,000, High Downward Risk if Momentum Weakens

Glassnode stated that currently, Bitcoin's resistance is around $72,000, while support below is relatively thin. If upward momentum weakens, there is still a risk of downward price movement. Additionally, the rebound momentum has improved, with stable spot demand and a significant decrease in selling pressure from losses. However, participation in exchanges, ETFs, and on-chain across various dimensions remains slightly soft, indicating that market confidence has not fully returned.

Analyst Wedson: Bitcoin May Drop to $54,000 in the Next 5 Months

Crypto market analyst Wedson stated that Bitcoin's 720-day Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index has fallen into the extreme bearish zone, indicating that long-term market fear may be nearing its end. Historically, such low indicators often accompany a so-called "final shakeout," after which Bitcoin enters a more robust rebound phase. For example, when this indicator was low in 2022, Bitcoin fell over 20%; in a similar situation in 2018, Bitcoin dropped approximately 50%.

Wedson warned that Bitcoin could experience a sharp drop of around $15,000 in the next five months, meaning BTC could drop to about $54,000. Therefore, the $50,000–$55,000 range may be a critical support area for Bitcoin. Despite this, recent large purchases of Bitcoin by Strategy have absorbed some selling pressure, potentially limiting downward space and making extreme bearish scenarios less likely to occur.

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin May Drop Below $60,000 Before Rising to $250,000

Arthur Hayes stated on the Coin Stories podcast that he will not put the last dollar into Bitcoin at this time, as the Federal Reserve has not yet been forced to expand liquidity, and he believes that tariff policies will cause inflation and may prompt the U.S. to turn toward capital controls, which would serve as a significant liquidity catalyst for Bitcoin.

Arthur Hayes maintains Bitcoin's long-term target price in this cycle between $250,000 and $750,000 but warns that if the U.S.-Iran conflict continues, Bitcoin may fall below $60,000 in the short term.

Greeks.live: The Market is Becoming Desensitized to Trump, No Consensus in the Market, Everyone is Waiting.

Greeks.live stated that the market is becoming desensitized to Trump. The implied volatility of Bitcoin has significantly decreased compared to last week. Although Trump will definitely make statements that will affect the market, no matter what he says, even if he deploys ground troops tomorrow, it won't deviate from market expectations. Currently, Skew and transaction distribution changes are quite scattered, showing a lack of consensus in the market, as everyone is waiting.

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