The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is clamoring, all for benefits! Hello everyone, I am your friend Old Cui, focused on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to fellow cryptocurrency enthusiasts, welcome all friends to follow and like, and refuse any market smoke screens!

With a wave of Trump's erratic actions, the cryptocurrency market is once again abstract; despite my countless explanations and analyses from various angles in the past, it cannot stop the obsession with market trends. Amid countless worries, Bitcoin has climbed back to the $69,000 mark, and there is even a possibility of hitting $70,000 in the short term. Today, we will use basic financial theory to discuss the future trends with everyone. I have talked about exchange rates, the power comparison between China and the US, and the impact of energy. Currently, the biggest factor affecting the trend of the cryptocurrency market is undoubtedly military-level conflicts. Broadening our perspective, one can see that the abstraction of the market is not just a cryptocurrency issue, but encompasses the entire financial market. Energy prices have surged, gold trends are unclear, the US stock market has continuously faced setbacks, and exchange rate fluctuations are significant. In financial basics, none of the current markets are suitable for investment, as they all lack the most crucial element—that is stability. Of course, there are exceptions, which are government bonds.

Globally, only government bonds have a stable yield of over 3%, which has been the most stable and continually expanding market since military conflicts began. Why is that? The backing of government bonds comes from the nation itself, and under this premise, the phenomenon of significant returns indicates that capital flows in various countries are becoming increasingly confused. All investment attributes are hesitant to intervene again, and the massive buyers behind these government bonds are domestic companies and private enterprises, as well as investments. For instance, repurchases by various countries show that American purchases account for over 60-70%. What does the abnormal performance of government bonds indicate? This month, Trump proposed an increase in military spending amounting to as high as $1.5 trillion, and the ultimate bearers of these costs are borrowed from the Federal Reserve, which the citizens of various countries will carry. How will these people repay the increased yield on government bonds? Or is there no intention of repayment at all? All countries' debt-to-GDP ratios are relatively high, and military risks will become more uncontrollable.

There is no need for everyone to understand too much, just know that the higher the yield on government bonds, the greater the turmoil in the financial market, which is a bearish signal for the financial market. Today's market rebound has led many friends to attribute it to Trump's fake news. Old Cui believes it is due to signs of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US, seemingly indicating signs of peace. However, all this feedback only indicates that the US Congress has played a role; surely someone has realized that continuing the conflict will not yield proportional benefits. This negotiation is extremely important; it depends on whether Iran can make concessions. If not successful, the US will continue to exert pressure, and there is even a risk of seizing opportunities, as Trump remains somewhat cold about his position. Let's return to the exchange rate; recent performances of the exchange rate have given a slight sweetness to the U-value in hand, reigniting interest in the dollar. Many friends still have vague concepts about the fundamental pricing of exchange rates and do not understand why the US dollar holds such significant value?

The currency of a country is directly tied to its productivity, meaning that it reflects how much you contribute to the world. For reference, the US is an exporter in food, an exporter in energy, and even in technology, occupying a large share of the market. Naturally, when the output is significant and the countries need enough to purchase from it, the reserves of the dollar will increase because countries need to buy goods from it. Many friends may wonder why our export quantity is so large while the CNY's value is not high. The more significant factor is the immense purchase volume in the energy sector; you need many goods, including energy, gold, technology, and even food. If you forcibly bind the CNY, then your imports will face issues. Discussing the exchange rate is essential because the environment in the cryptocurrency sector is deeply tied to the US, with pricing calculated relative to the dollar.

This is quite contradictory; in other words, the stronger the US becomes, the stronger the cryptocurrency market will be. This is also why Old Cui has previously stated that the current problems in the cryptocurrency market do not stem from the market itself, but from the overwhelming problems faced by the US. One can see that among the concepts proposed earlier, very little has been realized. For example, in February, it was revealed that the X platform would launch Bitcoin financial services in March, which has now been postponed to April. A series of bills are also indefinitely postponed, and these issues constitute significant bearish news for the cryptocurrency market. This results in a lack of substantial positive news in the short and medium terms, while almost all bearish information has been absorbed by the crypto market. Managing to maintain current prices is already a challenge. A shift in an era must ignore short-term impacts; most friends' lack of confidence in the cryptocurrency market stems from a misunderstanding of the underlying logic. At the same time, the perspectives I provide are more to help you understand the cryptocurrency market and do not serve as significant investment advice; please view them rationally.

Many friends hold great expectations for this year's market. My viewpoint has always been conservative; I have always felt that this year will see new highs. Some friends believe Bitcoin can reach $150,000, ETH can reach $5,000, and SOL can approach $300. One year as a unit, I consider too shortsighted. What I see is the future of intelligence; for example, the development of AI will inevitably lead to widespread unemployment of workers. Such a reduction in labor costs is a significant positive news for the US, as their emphasis on manufacturing returning primarily concerns labor aspects. The land itself is not a significant issue; in the worst case, it can be moved to more remote areas, and these problems can be solved through the integration of AI and automation. For the domestic market, the demographic dividend has ended with the conclusion of the real estate era, and the future competition will focus on which country’s AI is smarter and has more affordable costs. The foundation of artificial intelligence is also reliant on blockchain technology, and the era of the Internet of Everything is when the cryptocurrency market will truly emerge.

Old Cui concludes: Your views on the cryptocurrency market should not be limited to the short-term returns of one or two years. All the wealthy individuals who have arisen from the Bitcoin era have persisted in their investments for at least five years. Even in the current market situation, the price remains at historically high points; nearly all high-tech products today bear traces of blockchain technology as a fundamental aspect. Aerospace, AI, computing power, and even electricity have integrated blockchain technology. Whether it’s distributed storage or cloud services, all indicate that the future of the virtual economy cannot be separated from the support of cryptocurrencies. However, you need to choose the correct coin; deep binding with stablecoins will enable a cryptocurrency to continue developing. Recently, we can see quantum computing breakthroughs; many cryptocurrencies are adopting quantum-resistant encryption, and these coins will undoubtedly occupy a certain market share in the future. All cryptocurrencies resistant to quantum computing have stablecoins supporting them, and you can consider them for long-term reserves. Without discussing this year, as long as you plan for long-term reserves, try to invest in a regular purchase manner. Tomorrow's article will provide insights on contract entry positions and strategies; interested users can follow Old Cui, or those who want to enter the market can directly ask Old Cui.

Original work created by the public account: Old Cui talks about coins. If you need help, please contact directly.

Old Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; an expert can foresee five, seven, or even ten moves ahead, while a less skilled player can only see two or three moves. The expert considers the bigger picture, strategizes about trends, and prioritizes winning the game instead of focusing on individual pieces or locations. In contrast, the less skilled player fights for every inch, frequently switches between long and short positions, only contending with short-term trades, and often finds themselves in difficult situations.

This material is for educational reference only and does not constitute trading advice; trading based on this carries risks!

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