Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.31 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.1%, or $1.34 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $31.67 billion, increasing by 0.47% over the last 7 days, with USDT representing 58.06%.
CoinMarketCap shows that among the top 200 projects, most fell while a few rose, including: BTC fell 1.88% over the last 7 days, ETH rose 0.58%, SOL fell 7.05%, M rose 24.04%, and ALGO rose 42.97%.
This week, the net inflow for the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $22.4 million; the net outflow for the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $42.1 million.
Market Forecast (April 6 - April 12):
RSI index is 51.25 (neutral, above last week), fear and greed index is 10 (extreme fear), altcoin season index is 43 (neutral).
BTC: $62,000-72,000 (if $60,000 is lost or drops to $52,500; breaking $70,000 requires stronger catalysts)
ETH: $1,950-2,200 (key support at $2,000)
SOL: $70-90 (suppressed by the Drift attack incident, rebound momentum is weak)
Main Risks:
Geopolitical escalation (high priority). If the U.S. takes further military action against Iran, or shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, oil prices may continue to rise, further suppressing risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
$60,000 key support lost. Technical analysis shows that if Bitcoin clearly falls below the psychological barrier of $60,000, it may trigger programmatic selling and leveraged liquidations, accelerating a drop to the $52,500-55,000 range. Currently, AI algorithm trading reportedly accounts for over 65%, which may amplify volatility after a technical breakdown.
Trust crisis in the Solana ecosystem spreads. The Drift Protocol attack incident (loss of about $286 million, suspected to be related to North Korean hackers) may lead to more security vulnerabilities being disclosed, causing funds to accelerate their exit from the Solana ecosystem.
Understand Now
Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the market, Bitcoin experiences a "roller coaster"行情
This week the cryptocurrency market was entirely influenced by geopolitics. In the first half of the week, due to expectations of U.S.-Iran talks, Bitcoin briefly broke $69,000 to reach its highest point in nearly a week; however, on April 2, following Trump’s declaration of a "very severe" crackdown on Iran, the market turned sharply downward, with Bitcoin dropping below $67,000. Major coins like Ethereum and SOL fell across the board. This severe macro uncertainty led to bloodshed in the derivatives market, with over 300,000 liquidations for the week (with 150,000 liquidations on April 2 alone).
U.S. Department of Justice charges 10 individuals with “market maker” fraud
This week, U.S. prosecutors filed criminal charges against 10 individuals, accusing them of participating in "wash trading" and "pump and dump" schemes related to cryptocurrencies. Notably, the tokens involved were created by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), marking a significant case by regulators against market manipulation, indicating that future regulations will be stricter for low market cap tokens.
BlackRock deposits over $120 million in cryptocurrency assets with Coinbase
On-chain data shows that an address associated with BlackRock's ETF deposited 1,360 BTC (approximately $90.28 million) and 15,103 ETH (approximately $30.82 million) into Coinbase Prime on April 3. This move is typically seen as part of ETF purchases or market-making preparations, indicating that traditional financial giants continue to position themselves in cryptocurrency through spot channels.
JPMorgan downgrades HashKey's target price, warns of regulatory pressure
JPMorgan downgraded the rating of Hong Kong-listed cryptocurrency exchange HashKey from "overweight" to "neutral," significantly reducing its target price by 44%. The reason is the weak sentiment in the global cryptocurrency market and declining profit margins, reflecting that even compliant exchanges face severe profitability challenges in the current bearish atmosphere.
Elon Musk's promotion ignites meme coin, traders profit by 211 times
On March 30, Elon Musk released an AI animation about the “Bitcoin Wife,” causing the related meme coin (ANIME) market cap to skyrocket to $3.4 million. A savvy trader seized the opportunity to sell a position worth only 1.1 SOL (approximately $230) a year ago for a profit of $19,500, achieving an astonishing return of 211 times. This once again underscores Musk’s significant influence in the crypto meme space.
Mercado Libre announces closure of its own cryptocurrency
Latin American e-commerce giant Mercado Libre announced it will close its proprietary cryptocurrency "Mercado Coin" on April 17. The project was launched in 2022 mainly for user incentives. This move indicates that large tech companies are reassessing the real utility of loyalty tokens and are shifting towards using stablecoins as payment tools.
Saxo Bank and BitGo have differing views: Is institutional money really flowing in?
There is a divergence in market attitudes towards institutions. Saxo Bank's report indicates a lack of strong institutional inflows into the cryptocurrency market, with options positions still leaning defensive. However, BitGo announced the launch of an institutional stablecoin minting service "BitGo Mint," supporting USD1 and SoFiUSD, aimed at providing compliant entry for market makers and banks, indicating that infrastructure development is still underway.
FTX initiates fourth round of distribution, approximately $2.2 billion will be returned to creditors
FTX's bankruptcy restructuring has entered a new phase, with its trust agency launching the fourth round of distribution on March 31, totaling approximately $2.2 billion. Eligible creditors will receive funds through platforms such as BitGo and Kraken. Whether this release of funds will bring new buying power to the market has become a focal point for investors.
EthCC conference held in Cannes, ecosystem development continues
The largest Ethereum community conference, EthCC, took place in Cannes, France, from March 30 to April 2. Meanwhile, Aave V4 officially launched on the Ethereum mainnet, and Sushi announced it will launch a perpetual contract (Perps) market on April 2. Despite the gloomy market conditions, core developers and infrastructure development continue to advance.
Whales increase positions against the trend: 40x leverage to short Bitcoin
As the market generally fell due to war risk, some whales chose to "kick someone when they're down." Hyperinsight monitoring shows that on April 2, an address opened a $13.3 million Bitcoin short position with 40x leverage. This extreme betting method indicates that professional traders believe geopolitical risks have not been fully released, and the short-term downward pressure remains substantial.
Macroeconomics
On April 1, U.S. March ADP employment change was 62,000, expected 40,000, previous value 63,000.
On April 2, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 were 202,000, the lowest since the week of January 10, 2026. Lower than the expected 212,000, the previous value was revised from 210,000 to 211,000.
On April 1, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 2.1%, while maintaining rates at the same level is 97.9%.
ETF
Statistics show that from March 30 to April 3, the net inflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $22.4 million; as of April 3, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.978 billion, currently holding $10.35 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $52.493 billion. The total market cap of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is: $89.003 billion.
Net outflow of U.S. Ethereum spot ETF: $42.1 million.
Foresee the Future
Industry Conferences
BNB Chain U.S. University Roadshow (University of California, Berkeley) will be held on April 7, 2026, in Berkeley, U.S.
GOAT Network will hold an offline event themed "How to Make Your First Money with AI Agents" on April 11, 2026, from 14:00 to 15:00 in Beijing.
Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held from April 20 to 23, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
Blockchain Week Istanbul 2026 will be held from June 2 to 3 in Turkey.
Project Progress
Fogo airdrop claim deadline is April 15, 2026.
MEET48’s IDOL token staking program on BNB Chain continues until April 18, 2026. This event started on March 19, allowing users to lock IDOL tokens for 90 days on BNB Chain and receive principal plus a 40% annual percentage rate (APR) after the lock-in period ends.
Important Events
Gemini announced it will close all customer accounts in the UK, European Economic Area, and Australia starting from April 6, 2026.
The European Central Bank is recruiting experts to participate in the development of the digital euro "rulebook," with applications open until April 10. This recruitment encompasses two working groups covering implementation standards for ATM and terminal suppliers, as well as certification and approval frameworks for payment solutions.
On April 9 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 (in thousands).
On April 9 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the annual rate of core PCE price index for February.
On April 10 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the annual rate of unadjusted CPI for March.
Token Unlocking
Opinion (OPN) will unlock 32.01 million tokens on April 5, valued at approximately $6.05 million, accounting for 13.91% of the circulation.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 333,000 tokens on April 6, valued at approximately $11.8 million, accounting for 0.14% of the circulation.
Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on April 9, valued at approximately $2.91 million, accounting for 4.92% of the circulation.
Babylon (BABY) will unlock 632 million tokens on April 10, valued at approximately $8.86 million, accounting for 37.77% of the circulation.
Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.38 billion tokens on April 10, valued at approximately $4.12 million, accounting for 5.32% of the circulation.
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on April 12, valued at approximately $9.79 million, accounting for 0.68% of the circulation.
About Us
Hotcoin Research serves as the core research institution of the Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tool. Through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Research Reports," we analyze market trends for you; with the help of our exclusive column "Selected by Hotcoin" (AI + expert filtering), we identify potential assets and reduce trial and error costs. Every week, our researchers also face you via live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and grasp the value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments themselves carry risks. We strongly recommend that investors engage in investments only after fully understanding these risks and under strict risk management frameworks to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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