The information flow is too rapid, making in-depth analysis articles easy to be submerged by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column extracts these content with judgment value from the massive information, helping you filter out noise, leaving insights, and bringing inspiration.
Macroeconomic Situation
Has a global economic recession quietly begun?
The author redefines recession from "economic result" to a "strategic state," which not only compresses growth and employment but also weakens a country's negotiating power, capital attractiveness, and external credibility, thus losing initiative in global games. For this reason, governments around the world are replacing monetary tools with fiscal, diplomatic, and even geopolitical means, essentially buying time to avoid being forced into negotiations during a recession.
Within this framework, the core of the market is no longer the interest rate path itself, but "who can break free from constraints, and who is still trapped within."
This difference is first reflected in the foreign exchange and interest rate markets, and further transmitted to asset prices and capital flows. When valuations continue to rise amid slowing growth, it may not be due to underlying improvements but rather due to expectations of policies that "will not allow a recession to happen."
Apple sold too early, but now it does not buy.
It will not bottom out U.S. stocks at this time.
The most dangerous situation is when the person who holds the nuclear button is about to die, or is facing great shame. In such circumstances, no one can predict what decision a person will make. In the next hundred years, perhaps two hundred years, nuclear weapons will be used.
$700 billion poured into AI, Americans have first tasted the bitterness of inflation
The more investment in AI, the higher the inflation, the farther the interest rate cuts, and the higher the financing costs — but investment is still accelerating.
The arms race among big companies cannot pause. A data center consumes as much electricity as an entire state.
$700 billion is flowing into AI infrastructure. Whether this money is the cause of inflation or a prelude to a productivity revolution depends on a question that no one can answer yet: will the models running in these data centers make the economy more efficient?
It is not that gold has reached a new high, but paper currencies have reached a historical low.
The average age of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. has been pushed back from 28 to 40 years old.
We are facing a generational turning point where currency and nation are separated. Stablecoins are likely to take half of bank deposits within ten years. Bitcoin has already reached escape velocity.
Investment and Entrepreneurship
Interview with 10 workers in Dubai: Some were asked to sign a "life and death statement"
On the practical level, Dubai is now in a battlefield.
Some Web3 workers are fleeing, some are holding on, and others are signing life and death statements (company disclaimers) to return to Dubai, hoping to seek high rewards in their careers under high risks.
The reason is not theoretical errors, but failures at the execution level: low participation rates, governance rights being captured, emissions flowing to pools without profit, and token prices plunging even as usage increases.
However, Curve's veCRV and Aerodrome's ve(3,3) are still developing healthily. But this model only works where the measured emissions can create real economic demand for liquidity.
Meanwhile, other protocols are choosing income-supported buybacks, deflationary supply mechanisms, or liquidity governance tokens as alternatives to the ve token model.
Tiger Research: Analysis of retail investors' current situation in nine major Asian markets
Tiger Research covers nine of the largest user markets in Asia, analyzing barriers to retail entry and exchange response strategies. Key findings: There are structural differences in access barriers in markets such as South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam, and the localization strategy of exchanges is a key variable for success. This is valuable for project parties looking to expand to Southeast Asia.
Also recommended: 《Odaily Interview with SharpLink: Ethereum's "productive capitalist"》.
Web3 & AI
What exactly is AI Agent doing? A complete analysis of the Claude Code's 500,000 lines of code leak
The competitive barrier for AI products may not lie in the model layer, but in the engineering layer.
For AI products, the cost of model inference may not be the most expensive layer, but rather the failure of cache management.
After chasing AI tools for a year without zero output: A reflection from a serial entrepreneur
Don’t confuse "trying new tools" with "working on construction." When everyone can use the same model, the only moat is taste and depth, and taste can only be earned through real consequences and sustained focus.
Tiger Research: What AI services do crypto companies offer?
The motivations for adoption vary across different sub-sectors: exchanges aim to prevent user attrition; security companies aim to fill audit blind spots; payment infrastructures target the emerging agency economy.
The "FOMO" and competitive pressure in the field of artificial intelligence are accelerating its applications, far beyond actual demand. Real demand and competitive anxiety are both at play.
Distinguishing between adopting that creates value and merely labeling adoption is a key issue.
Prediction Market
With a return rate of only 43%, why are 87% of Polymarket players losing money?
"Cold preference" is one of the most expensive mistakes in prediction markets; traders often systematically overestimate low-probability events and pay excessively for seemingly cheap contracts.
The traders who truly outperform in prediction markets for the long term are not necessarily the ones who "judge most accurately" but rather those who can adjust their judgments the fastest and most reasonably when new evidence emerges.
The Bayesian method essentially provides this "adjustment speed" metric.
Don't bet based on intuition: AI is "picking money" on Polymarket
The article introduces a method for identifying arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket and systematically executing them: using Perplexity to complete research, identifying discrepancies between data and market pricing; using Claude to build trading logic, control risks, and execute automatically; ultimately trading and monetizing on Polymarket.
For ordinary participants, a more realistic path is to first find certainty through research and then use systems to amplify returns.
Also recommended: 《Polymarket Smart Money Overview: 26 Long-term Trackable Addresses (broken down by sector)》.
CeFi & DeFi
Stripe goes up, PayPal goes down: The new payment king is crowned
Stripe's judgment is straightforward: when AI Agents begin making purchasing decisions for humans, whoever controls the payment channels will seize the core lifeblood of the AI economy. Stripe's foresight places it ahead of the entire payment industry.
Meanwhile, PayPal is stumbling. PayPal's business model survives on "transaction flow fees," while stablecoins' business models rely on "holding assets to earn treasury interest." There is an inherent conflict between the two logics — each time PayPal promotes a PYUSD stablecoin payment, it is, to some extent, eating into its traditional fee income. This problem is difficult to solve within PayPal's existing business framework.
BTC on the brink, how did HYPE surge 20% against the trend?
The RWA trading market empowered by HIP-3 provides new value support.
The overall market is in a downward trend, yet HYPE has displayed extreme stability. A significant reason for this is undoubtedly Hyperliquid's strong fundamentals, focus on generating revenue, and the continuous use of profits for HYPE buybacks.
HIP-3 (the perpetual contract market deployed by builders) has shown a clear pattern: when the infrastructure is permissionless and has been validated by the market, liquidity tends to gather around stronger teams, regardless of whether they have obtained additional support from the ecosystem.
The same logic will likely apply to HIP-4. HIP-4 focuses on "outcome trading," which will introduce prediction markets and certain types of options to Hyperliquid — these products can provide non-linear returns without liquidation risk.
No past protocol was excellent enough to genuinely bring sustainable options trading into the crypto world. Hyperliquid has achieved this and does things differently than all other platforms. This platform has no investors, is unaffected by external pressures, and Jeff can decide freely what the company wants to do. In this regard, Hyperliquid is very much like Telegram — no need to spend much on marketing; the key lies in the faith itself. If the product is good enough, people will come to use it sooner or later.
Hyperliquid has the opportunity to capture the entire cryptocurrency options market.
Winners will build genuinely real-world products, embedding cryptocurrencies as underlying implementation details; losers will cling to the old narrative of "doing crypto for crypto's sake" and expect the whole world to adapt to them.
Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guides
Meme
A post-00s earning A7 monthly, trapped between three screens
Odaily interviewed Meme P young players who can still achieve significant results in 2026, along with former Meme diamond hands, to understand their ways of earning money and their work lives.
Bitcoin
Each mined coin loses $19,000, Bitcoin mining companies collectively defect to AI
CoinShares' latest mining report shows that the weighted average cost for public mining companies to mine a single Bitcoin has risen to around $80,000, with the current BTC price between $68,000 and $70,000 — resulting in a loss of $19,000 for each mined coin.
The Bitcoin mining industry is undergoing its most fundamental transformation since its inception, with the clearest signal being not the hashrate or difficulty adjustment, but the balance sheet, and the way out is a full pivot to AI infrastructure.
When Bitcoin mining machines fly into space
For currently operating Bitcoin mining companies, space mining may not pose an immediate competitive threat, but many startup companies continue to try, highlighting the substantial cost reduction potential it represents, which remains highly attractive and imaginative for the industry. This indirectly reflects that the entire industry is facing structural cost pressures.
The logic of space mining is an ultimate extrapolation of the aforementioned trend: if the cheap electricity on the ground is eventually narrowed due to demand competition, then go to the places with the most abundant energy, namely the universe.
Security
The Google Quantum Research team, led by top quantum circuit expert Craig Gidney and others, has released two major announcements in succession.
The first was on March 25, when Google officially proposed that its post-quantum cryptography (PQC) migration timeline would target 2029; the second was on March 31, when Google Quantum AI issued a research report aimed at the cryptocurrency industry, plainly stating that according to the latest research outcomes, future quantum computers will require far less resources to crack the elliptical curve passwords protecting cryptocurrencies than previously thought.
The industry's previous timing judgment needs to be corrected. Google's migration target is set for 2029, and Google Quantum AI also mentioned in the article that it is collaborating with institutions such as Coinbase, the Stanford Blockchain Research Center, and the Ethereum Foundation to responsibly advance the timeline according to the 2029 plan.
For every crypto project, this represents a new security watershed. Whoever can acknowledge the problem, push for upgrades, and complete the "lock change" earlier will have a better chance of maintaining their security boundaries in the next era.
Also recommended: 《Odaily Interview with Yu Xian: Anthropic's nuclear-level new model leak, how will it affect crypto security offense and defense?》.
This Week's Hot Topics Supplement
Policies and Macroeconomic Market
U.S. Congressional Office is expected to announce the draft stablecoin revenue provisions next week, and the industry is preparing a counterproposal;
CFTC clarifies five key enforcement areas: "cracking down" on insider trading and market manipulation in prediction markets;
Opinions and Voices
Trump: the negotiations have made significant progress; Trump threatens to strike Iranian energy facilities, oil prices continue to rise, and U.S. stock index futures fall; The Iranian President: We are ready to end the war, but hope for guarantees; Iran will impose tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz;
Trump: Bitcoin holds an important position; the U.S. must maintain its lead;
10x: Under the U.S.-Iran conflict, the "safe haven myth" of Bitcoin has failed, and ETF funds are reshaping pricing logic;
Trader Eugene: has stopped losses and exited, planning to reduce trading frequency;
Institutions, Major Companies, and Leading Projects
SpaceX is expected to go public in June, with IPO target valuation over $2 trillion, aiming to raise up to $75 billion;
OpenAI completed $122 billion financing, reaching a valuation of $852 billion;
Bitfarms plans to liquidate all Bitcoins on its balance sheet and fully pivot to AI infrastructure;
Aster adjusts its token economic structure, significantly reducing monthly unlocking volume;
edgeX's airdrop Waterloo;
MagicEden: Wallet will be delisted tomorrow and enter export-only mode;
Dmail Network will gradually cease operations starting May 15; users need to export emails before then;
Security
Drift Protocol was attacked, with losses of at least $200 million (detailed explanation).
Attached is the 《Weekly Editor’s Picks》 series portal. See you next time~
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