As of April 3, 2026, Eastern Standard Time, options for BTC and ETH with a nominal value of approximately 2.12 billion USD are set to expire. This is the first large-scale derivative expiration event following the quarterly settlement day, contrasting sharply with the current state of declining spot and contract trading volumes. Currently, the Put Call Ratios for BTC and ETH are 0.54 and 0.73 respectively, with the maximum pain points hovering around 68,000 USD and 2,075 USD. The pricing structure shows a slight advantage for bulls, but the tug-of-war between longs and shorts is highly concentrated in the aforementioned key price areas. Against the backdrop of a significant decline in implied volatility, historically realized volatility also decreasing, and the on-chain profit/loss supply structure gradually approaching a bear market phase, this concentrated expiration is more like a stress test of the “low volatility - inventory game” environment, rather than a trigger for breaking into a new trend.

212 million options expiration pressuring key price levels

This event is the first weekly concentrated expiration following the quarterly settlement, involving approximately 28,000 BTC options and 156,000 ETH options, with a total nominal value of about 2.12 billion USD. In terms of scale, this is sufficient to impact short-term price structures, yet in stark contrast to the overall market's cooling transactions and shrinking liquidity, it creates a misalignment where “the expiration size remains large, but daily activity levels are relatively weak”.

In terms of position direction, the BTC options Put Call Ratio is 0.54, and ETH's is 0.73, indicating that bullish positions still slightly outnumber bears, but this advantage is not extreme, and short positions also retain some hedging and speculative space. This suggests that this round of expirations is more inclined towards reinforcing the tug-of-war at specific price points rather than being driven by extreme liquidations induced by unilateral positions. The corresponding maximum pain points are concentrated at BTC 68,000 USD and ETH 2,075 USD, and the existing gamma positions are likely to amplify short-term volatility around these two prices before and after expiration. Once the price deviates, seller hedging or buyer liquidation could accelerate the price “pulling back” to the pain points.

It is important to emphasize that all of this is occurring in an environment where overall transaction volumes and volatility have clearly decreased: a reduction in active trading willingness for spot and contracts makes it easier for prices to be passively influenced by a few concentrated positions. The expiration size has not significantly decreased, while activity level and depth are declining, which raises the probability of prices being “pulled” and “sucked” at key execution prices, making Friday's market appear more like an internal restructuring between existing positions rather than a directional choice led by new funding.

Bear market signals as IV falls below key levels

Analysts from Greeks.live point out that the implied volatility for BTC's major term has fallen below about 51%, and ETH's main term IV has also decreased, with options pricing clearly reflecting expectations of reduced future volatility. Recent data shows that historically realized volatility has continuously declined, with both IV and RV receding, and the resonance decline between pricing and actual volatility is typically seen as a characteristic of the late stages of a bear market or inventory game phase, implying a cooling state of “the market is moving, participants are retreating.”

In such a low IV environment, the expiration of these 2.12 billion USD options limits the probability of triggering a trending unilateral market. Large positions are likely to roll or close near maximum pain prices, and the market is more likely to exhibit behavior where short-term volatility amplifies around concentrated execution prices, wipes out local leverage and gamma risks, and then quickly returns to a low volatility range. The risk-reward ratio for trend capital under a low IV and low RV combination is unattractive, making this expiration seem more like a structural repricing rather than a directional breakout.

Meanwhile, the continued pressure on IV will diminish the attractiveness of long volatility strategies, causing expected returns on buying straddles or strangles, as well as long gamma strategies, to compress under the current premium levels. Conversely, more funds will likely be encouraged to shift towards selling strategies, earning time value through selling options, further reinforcing the “low volatility - inventory game” market structure. In this kind of structure, disagreements between bulls and bears are repeatedly released within a narrow range, and true significant trends usually await the IV bottom to be breached and for sentiments to exhibit significant disparities before restarting.

Profit and loss chips approaching bear market configuration

From an on-chain perspective, currently about 11.2 million BTC are in profit, corresponding to about 8.2 million in loss, and the ratio of profit to loss supply is approaching the structure seen in the 2022 bear market phase. This indicates that although prices are still well above the bear market bottom, the profit and loss distribution of chips is no longer in the typical bull market state of “the vast majority of chips deeply profitable, with loss positions only being a small portion”, but is beginning to converge towards relative equilibrium.

The high proportion of profitable chips means that there is still selling pressure from realizable profits above. If the price experiences a rapid rebound near expiration, some long-term holders and short-term speculators will be motivated to lock in profits at high prices, weakening the momentum to further push the price higher. At the same time, the increase in the scale of loss chips reflects that some funds are trapped at relatively high levels; when the price rebound approaches the cost zone, these holders are more likely to choose “liquidate and escape” rather than add chips, thereby increasing selling pressure in critical areas instead of forming new buying power.

At this concentrated expiration point, such a near-balance between profit and loss supply structure significantly suppresses bullish sentiment and also weakens the sustainability of directional trends. Each time the price approaches key resistance or cost-dense areas, it will encounter a wave of profit-taking and liquidation selling pressure, making unilateral markets difficult to sustain. Coupled with the gamma concentration of BTC and ETH near pain point prices, what is more likely to be seen this week is: sharp intra-day volatility sweeping both sides of leverage, triggering stop-losses or passive hedging, followed by the price being “pulled back” to the oscillation range in a repeated process.

Options focus shifting towards BTC as ETH bets are postponed

Analyst Adam from Greeks.live mentions that the market share of BTC options has clearly exceeded 80%, and this statement remains in the realm of market opinion, with the specific proportion awaiting further verification, but it at least indicates that: in the current cycle, directional and volatility betting is highly concentrated on BTC. In this context, the marginal changes in BTC's derivatives signals during this weekly expiration are more likely to lead the overall market sentiment and pricing rhythm.

In contrast, it has been pointed out that ETH has a higher concentration of options positions for June expiration, approximately 30% (also subject to verification), with this week's expiration merely being a prelude to a larger scale expiration peak. This means that currently, a lot of risks and expectations surrounding Ethereum have yet to truly enter the settlement window, making this week's expiration more of a fine adjustment of the existing structure rather than a pricing moment for the entire ETH narrative and price path.

In this structure, if BTC options indeed hold a high market share, then at this stage, when observing signals such as derivatives price spreads, IV structure, and gamma distribution, it becomes more essential to interpret market direction from BTC rather than seeking dominant trend clues from ETH. Overall, it can be summarized as: “BTC options dominate while ETH bets are postponed to June”. Corresponding to this concentrated expiration, the marginal impact on BTC will be more directly reflected in the short-term volatility of spot and contract prices, while ETH is more likely to behave as a passive follower of BTC’s movements, with true dominant games and repricing of risks likely concentrating around the June contract expiration.

DeFi blowups and the weakening settlement power of ETH

Before this options expiration round, the market has already experienced a number of DeFi project security incidents and blowups, leading to an overall rise in risk aversion, which has pressured both spot and derivatives trading volumes. New funds are more cautious, and leverage is more conservative, causing the main characteristic of this weekly concentrated options expiration to become an internal game between existing positions, rather than a directional bet upgrade driven by new funds influx. Under this “internal game of inventories” structure, local price squeeze and liquidation tend to be amplified, while trend extendibility is significantly weakened.

Deeper changes stem from Ethereum's shifting role in settlement and liquidity. Data shows that Ethereum's on-chain stablecoin market share has decreased from about 90% in 2023 to about 65% in 2026 (according to Dune and Visa data), with settlement and liquidity continuously overflowing to other public chains and layer two networks. This indicates that, although ETH still maintains a high concentration in derivatives, its “settlement and stablecoin dominance” in the entire crypto market is being diluted.

The weakening of settlement power and stablecoin dominance directly points to one result: the systemic weight of ETH-related derivatives is declining. Even if ETH experiences significant volatility at some expiration window, its spillover effects on overall market pricing and risk preferences have weakened compared to previous cycles. Under the dual pressures of declining risk appetite and settlement migration, ETH is more likely to absorb the pressures of this options expiration through relative price performance—evident in switches reflected in the BTC to ETH exchange rate, rather than an outright bearish trend in ETH measured in USD to release all pressures. This further explains why, during this expiration, market focus has shifted more towards BTC, while ETH is viewed as a target for accompanying adjustments and relative value gambling.

Low volatility does not equate to safety—phase conclusions

Considering the low implied volatility, chip structure, and the multi-dimensional information on DeFi risks and settlement migration, it can be observed that this 2.12 billion USD options concentrated expiration, under the cumulative effects of low IV, nearing bear market configurations of profit and loss chips, and rising DeFi risks, is more likely to magnify local noise and intra-day volatility, rather than marking the start of a new trend. Structural squeezes and gamma risks will increase the frequency of sharp short-term price fluctuations, but without sufficient new funds and expectancy disparities, it is hard to support sustainable large-scale unilateral markets.

In the short term, the key observations will focus on two axes: first, whether BTC price is continuously suppressed or absorbed near 68,000 USD; second, whether ETH's positioning choice near 2,075 USD is to roll over or simply close out. If prices linger long or frequently revert to these maximum pain areas, it will further confirm the market structure dominated by sellers, gamma neutrality, and low volatility; conversely, if prices significantly deviate from these levels post-expiration accompanied by increased volume, it may indicate the germination of directional market behaviour for the next stage.

In the medium term, as larger scale June contracts draw closer, along with the ongoing changes in Ethereum's on-chain settlement weights, the derivatives market has the opportunity to transition from the current phase of “low volatility bear market characteristics” to a subsequent stage of emotional and expectation re-differentiation. On one hand, the approaching large expiration in June may reshape the position structures of BTC and ETH; on the other, the adjustment of ETH’s position in the multi-chain and layer two landscape will redefine its relative weight in both derivatives and spot markets.

For traders, the combination of low volatility and concentrated expirations does not equate to safety, but rather indicates a migration of risk forms from “directional risk” to “structural and gamma risks”. In such an environment, a more rational focus lies in how to manage gamma and leverage under liquidity contraction, concentrated positions, and volatility suppression, rather than continuing to engage in high-leverage directional bets in a market where expected volatility has been significantly discounted.

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