Why invest in America, invest in the U.S. stock market? The McKinsey report "Maintaining America's Competitiveness at 250 Years" may be the best interpretation!

I spent a whole day reading this report. I first had AI read it once and found it so amazing that I used translation software to go through the entire PDF again. This "physical examination report of America" is worth savoring!

America is about to celebrate its 250th birthday, and many people might ask: Is this country on the decline, soon to "hand over" power? Facing China's relentless competition, can it regain its advantage? Today, we will not bring in national sentiments, but rather look directly at the underlying logic analyzed by McKinsey from an objective and rational perspective.

1️⃣ "The foundation is so solid that it feels a bit hopeless"

Firstly, the total economic output of the United States is truly shocking, as it produces 26% of the world's GDP with only 4% of the global population. Since surpassing the UK's GDP in 1860 and per capita GDP in 1900, its leading position has been maintained for over 100 years.

Secondly, let's talk about manufacturing. We often hear the media say American manufacturing is in decline; the data does indeed look bad, with manufacturing's share of GDP and employment falling from 20% fifty years ago to now under 10%. However, if we conclude that American manufacturing has become "hollowed out" beyond recovery, we are gravely mistaken.

Firstly, there is the invisible strength of being the world's factory. Although the output value is only one-fourth that of China, the U.S. remains the world's second-largest manufacturing power. What has been lost is low-end assembly, yet in core areas like semiconductors, robotics, and electrification, the foundational framework remains solid.

Secondly, the terrifying efficiency of wealth creation: out of the top 100 companies by market value globally, the U.S. has 59, Europe has 18, China has 12, and Japan has 2. From the likes of General Motors and IBM back in the day to now Nvidia and Tesla, we find that although the dominant players are changing, the overwhelming majority are still American. This capacity for "metabolism" is truly frightening.

Lastly, the significant investment vigor: in the current AI boom, American companies are vibrant, attracting 58% of global venture capital and 18% of foreign investment. Both government and private sector investments in frontier technologies far surpass Europe, such as in the AI industry, where private investment in the U.S. reached $1.09 trillion in 2024, nearly 12 times that of China. The investment-to-output ratio in the core AI models is astonishing, with 51% coming from the U.S. and 34% from China.

The overall labor productivity of the country is also very impressive. Since 2019, the U.S. growth rate has doubled compared to the previous decade. Although it is lower than China's growth rate, it still leads significantly compared to other developed countries. Therefore, even when calculated on a PPP basis, America has the highest per capita GDP among countries with populations over 10 million. This helps to understand why the American stock market is the investment market for global investors; smart people from around the world flock to embrace the highest quality assets—this capacity to attract capital is unmatched by any other country.

2️⃣ Why has the U.S. been strong for 250 years?

McKinsey summarized two points that I believe are very accurate: first, being blessed with abundant resources + a spirit of exploration and perseverance.

The U.S. is a chosen land; if you compare the resources of G7 countries and China, America’s arable land, oil, gas, coal, water resources, and inland shipping rank in the top three in nearly every aspect. Especially in energy and food, these are truly guaranteed returns.

Secondly, there is an atmosphere of defiance against fate. Many people feel that "entrepreneurial spirit" is esoteric, but it really comes down to one phrase: only those who strive can win, and when you win, the whole society will respect you. One similarity between the U.S. and China is that people do not believe in fate; there is no deep-rooted class burden, and stories of starting from scratch still have fertile ground. This atmosphere is something that Europe, India, and Japan truly cannot match.

3️⃣ The evolution of four eras: AI is the next era's competition

The report breaks down American history into four stages:

Agricultural Era: Relied on vast land and machinery.

Industrial Era: Relied on standardized scientific management and industrial laboratories.

Technological Era: Relied on a boom in research and development during the Cold War.

Digital Era: Relied on venture capital and internet ecosystems.

Now, we stand at the threshold of the AI era. McKinsey believes that to win this round, America must tackle four "hard injuries":

Engineer shortage: The number of science graduates in the U.S. is only one-tenth that of China. The Semiconductor Association says that nearly 60% of future positions may not be filled. With high-end models but no engineers to implement them, any effort is just a house of cards.

Electricity shortage: AI is an energy-hungry beast. By 2040, electricity demand will need to rise by 60%. However, everyone understands the current inefficiency of U.S. infrastructure—approvals for building a power station can drag on for years, which cannot keep up with AI’s computational power expansion.

Where the money goes: U.S. infrastructure right now is like a student rated "C," leaking and failing everywhere. It will take $3.1 trillion to fix it over the next ten years. If capital is only playing money-making games in finance and U.S. Treasury bonds without flowing into real production, that will pose significant problems.

Supply chain vulnerabilities: China’s manufacturing accounts for 45% of the global total; many critical goods (such as rare earths, lithium batteries, and raw medicines) cannot be self-supplied by the U.S. This "geopolitical security" is its biggest anxiety at present.

In summary, after reading the entire report, I found that McKinsey did not provide a simple "yes" or "no." Its focus lies in "self-reform." America's chances for the future do not rely on how to block opponents, but rather on whether it can regain a policy framework that "encourages production rather than speculation."

My feeling is that America has not yet reached a point of decline; its financial depth, talent density, and institutional predictability still provide a vast moat. However, it does indeed feel unprecedented pressure, especially given the recent U.S.-Iran war, where many countries have also witnessed the fatigue of U.S. military power and the pressure of maintaining dollar hegemony. However, as long as the U.S. stands firm in this fifth AI revolution, thriving for another 50 years should be a given! 🧐

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