UBS strategist Joni Teves is bringing gold back into the spotlight. According to views cited by several media outlets, she believes that even if gold prices experience a significant correction after strongly reaching historical highs, gold is still expected to set new records in the coming years, emphasizing that there is still a chance to "reach new highs” this year, and the current adjustment should be viewed as a buying opportunity. What is even more eye-catching is that UBS has given a rare aggressive three-year average price path: $5000/ounce in 2026, $4800/ounce in 2027, $4250/ounce in 2028. In the real market, gold prices are being pulled back sharply under the pressure of strong employment data and the Federal Reserve's expectations for "higher rates for longer,” yet UBS confidently declares "buy the dip” in this context. The tension between macro concerns, price volatility, and the aggressive bullish narrative has become the real highlight of this gold story.

Corrections Are Seen as Gifts: UBS Calls to Buy Gold

Teves's core statement is clear: This year, gold still has the opportunity to reach new highs. In her view, the recent drop in gold prices from high levels is not a trend reversal but rather a normal fluctuation that is "making way" for long-term bullish funds, thus she directly defines this adjustment as a "buying opportunity.” This sharply contrasts with some market interpretations of "high-level pullbacks = top signals” and firmly establishes UBS's stance on the bullish side.

In the past period, gold has repeatedly oscillated near historical highs, and even a slight change in macro data can trigger sharp fluctuations: on one hand, concerns about high rates and a strong dollar suppress bullish sentiment, while on the other hand, inflation fears and geopolitical risks support dip-buying. Emotionally, more institutions choose to "watch and wait," leading to significant divergence regarding whether to continue adding positions at high levels. In this atmosphere, UBS publicly emphasizes "pullback = gift,” effectively throwing a contrarian bullish suspense into the market.

Consequently, the question becomes pointed: when many institutions choose a defensive posture and emphasize "controlling risk exposure," why is UBS willing to continue suggesting increased allocations to gold at high levels? Is it due to high confidence in long-term inflation and geopolitical risks, a different interpretation of monetary policy paths, or simply a longer time span to digest short-term volatility? To understand this logic, one must delve into the rhythmic assumptions behind their $5000 prediction.

$5000 Ceiling? UBS's Three-Year Curve

From public reports, it can be seen that UBS has not provided an isolated "sky-high target,” but a complete three-year average price curve: $5000/ounce in 2026, $4800/ounce in 2027, $4250/ounce in 2028. This curve exhibits a clear trajectory of "rising high then falling back," pointing not to a single explosive point but to a gold cycle that unfolds at high levels and then gradually cools.

It is important to emphasize that Teves is talking about "average prices.” The concept of average price itself implies that the actual trading range may be significantly higher or lower than this level: to achieve an average price of $5000/ounce for the full year in 2026, prices must hit higher ranges at certain times while experiencing sharp pullbacks at other times, which is almost inevitable. However, due to the lack of complete research reports and detailed path disclosures, the outside world cannot deduce which specific quarter or time point will see peaks or deep pullbacks, nor can they fill in the blanks in the absence of sufficient information.

The decline from $5000 to $4800 to $4250 implies a typical cycle narrative: Initially, under the overlap of inflation anxiety, geopolitical tension, and safe-haven demand, gold is pushed into a "peak cycle” range; subsequently, as risk expectations are partially digested and monetary policy normalizes, gold prices oscillate at high levels and slowly give back premiums. In other words, UBS is not merely announcing a shocking "end number," but betting on a "high-level plateau + gradual retreat" gold era.

However, these numbers primarily come from media paraphrasing, rather than from UBS's complete original research report disclosed to the public. Information asymmetry and contextual absence mean that what we see are selected, simplified predictive conclusions, not the complex model parameters, scenario assumptions, and risk boundaries behind them. In these conditions, viewing $5000 as a "directional anchor point" is more in line with risk awareness than treating it as an "exact target price."

Inflation Shadows and Geopolitical Powder Kegs Drive Gold Prices Up

To understand why UBS dares to be bullish on gold at high levels, inflation expectations are an unavoidable core clue. After going through this round of high inflation, the stickiness of actual prices far exceeds many people's expectations: even if the nominal inflation rate falls, items such as rent, service prices, and labor costs—“which are hard to reduce”—are still hovering at high levels. This reality of "not decreasing" has led to a re-examination of gold's anti-inflation role in long-term asset allocation— for institutional investors, gold is no longer just a short-term hedging tool, but rather a form of "structural insurance" under the ongoing shadow of inflation.

Alongside inflation are continuously escalating geopolitical and supply chain risks. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions in the Middle East, "near-shoring," and supply chain restructuring have put the global trade and production system in a state of long-term uncertainty. Each local conflict and sanctions escalation adds fuel to the risk premium, therefore the narrative of safe-haven assets possesses a “slow-burn” property: there may not be news of war escalation every day, but the underlying sense of unease persists, providing long-term emotional support for gold.

In the realm of monetary policy and real interest rates, the story is even more complex. U.S. labor market data shows that the number of initial unemployment claims is below expectations, indicating that employment remains resilient, which suppresses the market's imagination for aggressive rate cuts and raises the possibility of “higher rates for a longer time.” Under traditional frameworks, this constitutes a negative for "non-interest-bearing" gold as higher real interest rates enhance the attractiveness of holding cash or bonds, raising the opportunity cost of gold. However, if viewed from a longer cycle perspective, UBS's logic appears to be betting on: the current volatility in high rates and real interest rates is merely a transitional phase leading to the next wave of easing and risk re-evaluation, during which gold will continuously accumulate premiums through multiple policy swings.

It is worth reiterating that the outside world currently does not know how UBS quantitatively addresses these macro variables in their models, nor do they understand the specific settings for scenario assumptions, tail risks, and the intensity of geopolitical shocks. What we can see is a macro narrative framework that heavily relies on inflation resilience, geopolitical unrest, and financial suppression logic, rather than a complete methodology that can be externally reproduced.

Strong Employment and Federal Reserve Decisions Influence Gold Prices

The latest figures show that the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. is lower than market expectations, which adds another stroke to the “the economy is still resilient” narrative. This outcome signifies that the U.S. labor market remains tight, making it difficult in the short term to witness a sharp slowdown that would force the Federal Reserve to urgently and dramatically cut rates. For the interest rate path, this strengthens the baseline expectation of “high rates maintaining longer,” thus suppressing market bets on rapid easing.

In such an interest rate environment, gold naturally comes under short-term pressure. Higher and more persistent nominal and real interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, forcing some leveraged bulls to reduce their positions or close them, creating wave after wave of correction windows for prices. UBS's so-called “buy the dip” is nested within this mechanism: in their eyes, the pressure on gold prices during the high-rate phase is not a long-term logic, but rather a “noise phase” that provides long-term bulls with better entry costs.

However, if the timeline continues to extend forward, the macro situation could reverse. Once economic growth slows, unemployment rises, or inflation resurges, the Federal Reserve will ultimately need to re-evaluate the balance between growth and prices; at that time, monetary policy could shift from "tight" to "neutral/easing,” real interest rates may fall while risk premiums rise, and gold often "unlocks elasticity" from its previous suppressed state. In other words, short-term high rates could serve as a "building up phase" for future easing, while gold gains trending upward space in this back-and-forth dynamic.

This aptly corresponds with UBS's logic of “exchanging time for space”: accepting short-term fluctuations caused by strong employment and high rates in exchange for a higher average price level under long-term inflation resilience and rising risk premiums. Short-term volatility is seen as “a necessary cost,” not reasons for bearishness; this misalignment in time dimension is a key dividing line between UBS and more transaction-oriented institutions.

From Bullion to Contracts: The New Battlefield for Gold on Telegram

In addition to macro fundamentals, changes at the infrastructure level are quietly reshaping the gold trading ecosystem. Research briefs show that Telegram has launched perpetual contract trading features that support trading in gold and other assets, meaning that the traditionally recognized safe-haven asset is directly integrated into a highly mobile, socially driven trading entry point, giving gold a new layer of digital liquidity.

For the younger generation of traders, entering the contract market directly through mobile social applications has a significantly lower psychological and operational threshold compared to traditional brokers or precious metal platforms. This “chat is trading” entry design is likely to attract a batch of new funds that are more speculative and eager to chase volatility. Gold, in their eyes, is not necessarily a value anchor that has existed for decades but may instead represent a contract asset on par with crypto and forex as a "dual directional bet."

When traditional safe-haven asset narratives combine with new derivative infrastructure, price volatility and emotional amplification occur almost simultaneously: macro-level inflation data and war news are rapidly amplified in social media and chat rooms, coupled with high-leverage tools, giving rise to more volatile short-term fluctuations. In such a mechanism, gold bears the story of a "safe asset" while also being traded as a "volatile asset,” and this dual identity makes prices more sensitive to information and emotion.

In stark contrast, UBS represents an institutional-grade long-term allocation perspective: they are more concerned with the inflation path, geopolitical landscape, and policy cycle on the scale of 3-5 years, rather than a 5-minute candlestick on a Telegram chat window. The former cares about average prices and discount rates, while the latter chases moments of liquidation and profits. The same gold is assigned entirely different uses in the eyes of different participants, complicating the tug-of-war over future gold prices between "macro trends" and "trading noise."

Is It a Long-Term Bullish Projection or the Starting Point of a New Gold Wave?

In summary, UBS’s bullish call on gold at high levels fundamentally bets on a broader world picture: the stickiness of inflation is difficult to completely eliminate, geopolitical and supply chain risks are long-standing, and monetary policy swings between tightness and looseness. In such a world, gold is viewed as a core holding to combat inflation erosion and institutional uncertainty, rather than a target for a short-term trading scenario.

However, the $5000 average price prediction carries a dual attribute: on one hand, it provides investors with a clear macro directional sense—that gold could potentially enter an unprecedented high platform in the coming years; on the other hand, the path and specific timing to reach this platform are highly uncertain. The lack of complete research reports and parameter disclosures makes it challenging for outsiders to ascertain: how much tolerance the prediction has concerning interest rates, inflation, economic growth, and geopolitical shocks, and how the target range would "automatically adjust" once reality deviates.

It is certain that both the macro environment and trading infrastructure are reshaping gold's pricing mechanism: from the fundamentals of sustained rising inflation and geopolitical risks to new platforms like Telegram bestowing stronger speculative attributes to gold, the price is likely to exhibit more severe and emotional volatility under the overlay of the "safe-haven premium" and "trading premium.” In this context, following blindly due to a "5000-dollar” number is akin to compressing a complex world into a single wager.

Looking ahead, if inflation and risk premiums continue to rise in the coming years, and the Federal Reserve repeatedly weighs between high rates and economic slowdown, some of the optimistic scenarios described by UBS are not without real basis; gold has the opportunity to accumulate gains over a longer cycle and even periodically realize narratives of "new high averages.” Conversely, if inflation is more robustly suppressed, geopolitical risks unexpectedly ease, and global economic soft landings succeed, a retraction of high premiums would be equally inevitable, and the debate surrounding 5000 dollars will only intensify. For investors, what truly needs to be done is not to cast a vote of approval or disapproval on UBS’s numbers, but to decide over what duration and with what cost of volatility they are willing to hedge against an uncertain future based on an understanding of its macro assumptions.

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