The most critical point, the main reason for the decline should be here:

1. In the next two to three weeks, the United States and its allies will carry out extremely fierce strikes against Iran, aiming to bring Iran back to the Stone Age.

2. If no agreement is reached between the United States and Iran during this period, the United States and its allies will launch vigorous and possibly simultaneous strikes on every power plant they have.

3. Currently, the United States and its allies have not targeted Iran's oil, but if no agreement is reached, the United States and its allies will do so.

4. The United States and its allies have implemented strong satellite surveillance and control over Iran. If they see any movements near nuclear facilities that have been targeted, they will strike again with missiles.

5. The United States has a large amount of oil and almost does not import oil through the Strait of Hormuz; the United States does not need the Strait of Hormuz. Countries that need to receive oil through the Strait of Hormuz must ensure the smooth passage through it, and the United States can provide some assistance.

In general, it is very likely that the war will continue in a more severe manner for two to three weeks, and there is a very high possibility of strikes against Iran's energy facilities. If I understand correctly, the United States should plan to abandon the Strait of Hormuz.

However, Iran is not a soft persimmon. In the case of intensified strikes by the United States, retaliation from Iran is likely not going to be simple, so the market has shown a decline due to risk-averse behavior. After Trump's speech, the price of U.S. oil surged directly to 110 dollars.

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