Original Title: "Trump's Speech Ignites the Market: A 'Heavy Strike on Iran' in the Next Two to Three Weeks, Oil Prices Soar, Gold Plummets"
Original Source: Jin Ten Data
On Thursday morning at 9 AM Beijing time, US President Trump delivered a national speech, providing an "important update" on the Iran issue.
Trump stated that the US military has achieved a swift and decisive victory. He emphasized that the core strategic objectives are close to being met, "We must complete the mission, and we must do it quickly. We are very close (to achieving it)."
He mentioned that most of Iran's leaders are dead. The Iranian navy no longer exists, and the air force has been reduced to ruins, while the command and control capabilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are being destroyed.
He stated that Iran had hoped to produce as many missiles as possible, and military actions have greatly hindered Iran's ability to obtain nuclear weapons. The Iran nuclear deal is a flawed agreement that should never have been made. "Iran possessing nuclear weapons is an intolerable threat."
He said that without exiting the Iran nuclear deal, Israel would not exist. Furthermore, Iran had previously been stockpiling conventional ballistic missiles, which could soon "reach the US mainland, Europe, and almost anywhere else on the planet." "We will never allow Iran to have nuclear weapons. As long as Iran continues to support terrorism, that will never happen. Iran possesses some weapons that no one believes they have, and we have destroyed those weapons."
Trump revised the death toll from the Iranian protests to 45,000, compared to the previous figure of 32,000 he had reported.
Trump remarked that partly due to Venezuela's oil and gas, the US is now no longer reliant on the Middle East. "We do not need oil from the Middle East. We are helping them."
Regarding concerns about oil prices, Trump stated that the recent rise in gasoline prices is a "short-term" phenomenon caused by Iran's attacks on tankers. Oil production will soon increase significantly. The US has never been more economically prepared. "We did not need the Strait of Hormuz in the past, and we do not need it now. Once the conflict ends, the strait will naturally open."
Trump reiterated the timeframe, saying: "In the next two to three weeks, we will deal them a heavy blow. We are addressing all of America’s military concerns as quickly and efficiently as possible. Regime change is not our plan, but it has happened." He threatened to send Iran back to the Stone Age. "If no agreement is reached, we will strike Iran's power plants."
Trump finally emphasized that the goal is clear: to destroy Iran's capability to threaten the United States and dismantle its defense industrial base. The US has various options to strike Iranian oil, including seizing key energy facilities. Trump thanked allies in the Middle East, stating that the US will not allow them to be harmed.
It is noteworthy that Trump did not announce a withdrawal from NATO. Previously, some had speculated that Trump might use this opportunity to criticize NATO allies for not participating in the fight against Iran.
During Trump's speech on the Iran war, US stock index futures fell. The S&P 500 index futures dropped by as much as 0.5%. Asian Pacific stock markets turned downwards, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index's decline widening to 0.5%. The Nikkei 225 index retreated from early gains, now down 0.4%.
US Treasury bonds and Japanese government bonds fell. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury increased by 3 basis points to 4.35%. The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds rose by 2.5 basis points to 3.640%.
Due to Trump's threat to strike Iranian energy facilities if no agreement is reached, oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude oil breaking through $103 per barrel, increasing more than 4% within the day. Brent crude oil surged $4 within the day, reported at $102.86 per barrel, a rise of 4.06%.
As Trump hinted that military action might escalate soon, international spot gold and silver prices plummeted, with spot gold falling below $4,700 per ounce, a drop of more than 2% during the day. Spot silver dropped more than 3% during the day, currently reported at $72.54 per ounce. New York silver futures fell below $73 per ounce, down 4.13% during the day.
This speech highlighted the immense pressure Trump faces to clearly communicate the objectives of the war to the public and to find an "exit strategy" for a conflict that has entered its fifth week and is becoming increasingly difficult to control. Notably, the speech resembles more of an early war mobilization than a summary one month into the war. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for one-fifth of global seaborne oil, has been essentially blocked since the outbreak of the conflict, becoming a major economic pain point. Despite Trump's continued assertion that energy impacts will ease after the war, the government has yet to clarify how it will persuade Iran to resume navigation in the strait.
Derek Wallbank, senior editor at "American Economy and Government," pointed out, "If you've been listening to the president's speeches for about the past week, then you didn't hear much new tonight."
He explained the reasons for the US military action against Iran, promising that the war will end soon while stating that the US will continue to strike Iran. The timeline remains unchanged: two to three weeks. He again urged countries reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for energy to take action to reopen the strait.
Reporter Abhishek Vishnoi noted that Trump stated that countries dependent on the Strait of Hormuz must deal with the issue, which increases the likelihood that the oil risk premium will persist, even amid a ceasefire, prolonged global inflation, and a cautious outlook for non-US assets, especially in emerging markets and oil-importing countries.
Trump did not provide any new details or signs of a lasting solution regarding the Strait of Hormuz, which would disrupt the oil market. Instead, he reiterated past statements, urging countries reliant on the oil flow through the waterway to show "late courage" to resolve the issue.
Clara Ferreira Marques of Bloomberg stated: "In the hope of overcoming past experiences, some oil traders have been seeking clarity from Trump's speech. He did not provide any direction, repeating past remarks and mixing bluster and threats with the prospect of an impending end. This has driven up Brent and WTI crude prices. Despite the president's comments today, there is little evidence to suggest that the Strait of Hormuz will naturally open. In fact, Iran is advancing plans to establish a toll system—formally creating a structure that could strengthen the country's control over the narrow waterway."
For crude oil traders, producers, and users, the main takeaway from Trump's remarks is that the global oil supply tightening triggered by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz may continue until April. According to earlier statistics from Bloomberg, every day the strait is closed results in a loss of about 11 million barrels.
Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, stated, "Investors are clearly unfazed by this; more downward space may occur in global markets today. Overall, I think that despite his claim that the war will end soon, this key update regarding striking Iran in the coming weeks is a huge negative impact on the market."
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