Today has passed without surprises or risks, and it can be considered that nothing unusual happened this weekend, which is quite good. The price of $BTC only maintained slight fluctuations over the weekend. Although there was a sense of escalation in the war, it did not affect Bitcoin over the weekend, indicating that genuine investors outside of institutions are not paying attention to the current market behavior. The focus may still be on the attitudes of Asian partners after the CME opens on Monday and the thoughts of American investors after the US stock market opens in the evening.

The impact of the war on oil prices is becoming hard to suppress. Today, I saw many global analysts believe that Brent oil could spike to $200. I initially thought that $150 would be difficult enough. If it reaches $200, one really has to consider interest rate hikes and recession, and inflation is expected to rebound significantly. We are now just about three weeks away from the potential depletion of strategic reserves released by the IEA.

Now, not only are there no signs of a ceasefire, but the trend of the war is becoming more severe. The Houthis have officially entered the scene, and how much longer the blockade of the Red Sea will last is uncertain. The Middle East has been heavily impacted, and the US has also increased troop deployments. If I were Trump, I would also be very troubled; even after the war ends, there will still be tariffs, the Federal Reserve, and the midterm elections waiting for him.

Looking at Bitcoin data, the turnover rate continued to decrease over the weekend, and trading volume is also declining. This indicates that even with the escalation of the war, investors are not particularly interested in trading, nor is there a panic sentiment. The overall structure of holdings is quite normal. The key point is still to observe the movements of US stock market investors after the market opens on Monday.

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