Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.35 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.2%, which is $1.37 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $31.57 billion, having increased by 0.06% in the past 7 days, with USDT making up 58.29%.
CoinMarketCap indicates that among the top 200 projects, most have decreased while a few have increased; specifically: BTC fell by 3.28% over the past week, ETH increased by 3.8%, SOL fell by 3.95%, M increased by 22.36%, and DEXE increased by 18.05%.
This week, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $287.8 million; U.S. Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $206 million.
Market Forecast (March 30 - April 5):
RSI index is 44.07 (neutral, lower than last week), fear and greed index is 14 (extreme fear), altcoin season index is 49 (neutral).
BTC: $66,000-72,500 (range trading, breakthrough requires macro catalyst)
ETH: $1,950-2,300 (relative weak pattern continues)
SOL: $82-92 (imbalance in long and short ratio causing instability)
Main Risks
Geopolitical black swan: U.S.-Iran negotiations collapse → oil prices soar → inflation expectations worsen → risk assets under pressure
Long squeeze risk: SOL and other assets with severe long-short ratio imbalance, if prices fall, may trigger a chain liquidation
ETF fund reversal: If Bitcoin ETF turns into net outflow, it will weaken the currently most important support
Understanding Now
Review of the Week's Major Events
Geopolitical risks ignite the crypto market, Bitcoin falls below $69,000
This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp correction, with Bitcoin falling below the $69,000 mark on March 26, down over 3% from the overnight high, while Ethereum and major altcoins like SOL also fell by 4% to 5%.
Core trigger: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated. According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. may consider deploying 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East; meanwhile, Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook publicly stated, "The inflation risks are greater due to the war with Iran." This has directly altered the market's expectations for the path of interest rates— the expected probability of interest rate cuts before an outbreak of war in the Middle East is decreasing.
Knock-on effects: The U.S. stock market's Nasdaq index has fallen over 10% from its historical high into a correction zone, while oil prices have surpassed $92 per barrel.
Over $300 million in long positions liquidated, market sentiment falls to "extreme fear"
Amid the market crash, total liquidations across the network reached $329.5 million in the past 24 hours, with long liquidations accounting for $287.1 million and shorts only $42.4 million, indicating a clear seller-dominated pattern.
CoinMarketCap's fear and greed index reported 29 (extreme fear) on March 27, showing a slight recovery from the previous day but still at a low level. Alternative.me data indicated that the index once touched the extreme level of 10.
$14 billion Bitcoin options quarterly settlement, maximum pain becomes "price magnet"
This Friday (March 27), Bitcoin is set to experience one of the largest option settlements in history—approximately $14 billion in nominal value of options contracts expiring, representing a significant proportion of all open contracts.
Market analysis indicates that institutional investors previously sold a large number of call options to gain profits in a sluggish market, which forced market makers to maintain hedge balance by "buying low and selling high," resulting in the price being repeatedly pulled toward the “maximum pain” level near $75,000—where the most options contracts expire worthless.
Once this batch of contracts is settled, hedge-driven mechanical buying will disappear, and Bitcoin may face more severe volatility driven by geopolitical factors.
AI sector faces heavy losses, daily decline nearly 8%, Worldcoin leads the fall
Amid the overall market correction, the AI concept sector has become severely affected. According to SoSoValue data, the AI sector dropped 7.96% in 24 hours. Among them:
Siren (SIREN) plummeted 29.88%
Kite (KITE) fell 16.6%
Worldcoin (WLD) fell 8.81%, dropping below $0.30
Adding to market concerns, the Worldcoin team transferred 89.65 million WLD to a new address (valued at approximately $26.17 million) on March 27 and began to transfer funds to centralized exchanges. Such transfers are typically interpreted by the market as potential sell signals.
ENA (Ethena) also fell, dropping below the psychological threshold of $0.10, with a bearish technical outlook.
NVIDIA faces class action lawsuit for concealing $1 billion in crypto GPU revenue
A U.S. federal judge on March 25 approved class action certification against NVIDIA, with investors alleging that the company concealed over $1 billion in GPU sales revenue from crypto miners from August 2017 to November 2018, disguising it as "gaming business" revenue.
Legal documents show that when the truth gradually emerged in 2018, NVIDIA's stock price plummeted by 28.5% within two days. This case has gone through years of litigation, and the U.S. Supreme Court denied NVIDIA's appeal in December 2024, clearing obstacles for the class action.
UK advances temporary ban on crypto political donations
The UK government officially advanced a temporary ban on crypto political donations on March 25, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer announcing in the House of Commons, "We will take decisive action to protect democracy, including suspending all political donations made via cryptocurrency."
This ban stems from an independent investigation report by the Rycroft Review regarding foreign financial interference in the UK political system. According to legislative arrangements, the ban will retroactively take effect from March 25, requiring existing parties and candidates to return received crypto donations within 30 days.
Ironically, Reform UK became the first British political party to accept crypto donations in May 2025, with leader Nigel Farage announcing acceptance of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at a Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas.
Regulatory updates: U.S. Senator states crypto market structure bill has bipartisan support
Positive signals are being released from the regulatory level. U.S. Senator Tim Scott stated that the crypto market structure bill has gained bipartisan support, and the industry consensus is the last obstacle to legislative approval.
Meanwhile, U.S. regulators issued warnings to payment companies like Visa regarding the issue of "de-banking"; Coinbase's policy head called for U.S. lawmakers to reform crypto tax rules; and another U.S. congressman questioned the Kansas City Fed, requesting details on the approval of Kraken's master account.
LayerZero connects to the Canton network, bridging traditional financial asset cross-chain channels
The cross-chain protocol LayerZero integrated with the institutional-grade blockchain Canton Network this week, marking a significant step toward merging DeFi and traditional finance.
Canton Network, developed by Digital Asset, focuses on on-chain interactions for regulated financial institutions. This integration means the LayerZero ecosystem can support cross-chain transfers of traditional financial assets, providing a technological foundation for compliant stablecoins, bond tokenization, and other scenarios.
Altcoin differentiation: KAT surges 38% against the trend, highlighting the Korean exchange effect
Against the backdrop of a market-wide decline, the Katana (KAT) token surged over 38% on March 26, reaching a price of $0.0148, with trading volume spiking to $297 million.
The catalyst came from the South Korean market: the token was listed simultaneously on major Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb, providing trading pairs with Korean Won, Bitcoin, and Tether. This event reaffirms the strong momentum of the "Korean exchange listing effect," which can drive independent markets even in bearish conditions.
Macroeconomics
On March 26, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending March 21 was 210,000, as expected, compared to the previous value of 205,000.
On March 27, the U.S. released the final value of the March University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, with a forecast value of 54 and an actual value of 53.3, below expectations.
On March 26, according to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in April is currently reported at 6.2%, with a 93.8% probability of keeping rates unchanged.
ETF
According to statistics, from March 23 to March 27, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow was: $287.8 million; as of March 27, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.964 billion, with current holdings of $10.208 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $51.844 billion. The total market value of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is: $87.909 billion.
U.S. Ethereum spot ETF net outflow was: $20.6 million.
Foreseeing the Future
Industry Conferences
EthCC 9 will be held from March 30 to April 2, 2026, in Cannes, France. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of the largest and oldest annual Ethereum conferences in Europe, focusing on technology and community development.
The Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held from April 20 to 23, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
Project Progress
The OpenSea Foundation has decided to postpone the SEA token release event originally scheduled for March 30.
The deadline for claiming the edgeX token EDGE airdrop is April 1 at 7:59.
Aave protocol's core technology contributor BGD Labs stated that after the current service collaboration ends on April 1, they will cease participation in Aave DAO, marking the end of nearly four years of development and infrastructure work on that lending platform.
Binance will support the replacement and brand upgrade of the Dai (DAI) token to USDS (USDS), stopping trading and removing all existing DAI spot trading pairs at 11:00 on April 7, and opening spot trading for BTC/USDS, ETH/USDS, and USDS/USDT at 16:00 on April 9.
Important Events
On April 1 at 20:15, the U.S. will announce March ADP employment numbers (in 10,000s).
On April 2 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 (in 10,000s).
On April 3 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the unemployment rate for March.
On April 3 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the non-farm payrolls for March, seasonally adjusted (in 10,000s).
Token Unlocking
Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 53.47 million tokens on March 28, worth about $8.09 million, representing 1.55% of the circulating supply.
Zora (ZORA) will unlock 165 million tokens on March 30, worth about $2.65 million, representing 3.7% of the circulating supply.
Optimism (OP) will unlock 31.34 million tokens on March 31, worth about $3.46 million, representing 1.55% of the circulating supply.
Sui (SUI) will unlock 42.94 million tokens on April 1, worth about $40.37 million, representing 1.1% of the circulating supply.
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.82 million tokens on April 1, worth about $7.12 million, representing 7.54% of the circulating supply.
Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on April 2, worth about $4.14 million, representing 0.52% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is committed to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. Through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports," we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual filtering), we identify potential assets to reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers also engage with you live through broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing itself carries risks. We strongly advise investors to ensure they fully understand these risks and to invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure fund safety.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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