What impact will the Houthis joining the war and supporting Iran have? What impact will it have on $BTC?

The Houthis have publicly stated that they have completed military preparations and may strike or implement an effective blockade on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at any time to show support for Iran.

Between 2023 and 2025, the Houthis attacked over a hundred ships using drones, missiles, and speedboats, causing shipping volume in the Red Sea to plummet by 90%, forcing most shipping companies to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope (adding two weeks to the journey, along with increased fuel and insurance costs).

More importantly, the impact on oil is not just a simple emotional shock, but will directly compress the actual transportation capacity of Middle Eastern crude oil. Because in the already highly tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia and some Gulf countries could still send crude oil to Red Sea ports through east-west pipelines and then export through the Red Sea to bypass Hormuz.

However, if the Houthis simultaneously threaten the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, it means that this alternative export route also begins to fail. This way, the market's concern is no longer just about tankers detouring, but whether Middle Eastern crude oil can smoothly reach Europe and Asia, and the geopolitical premium in oil prices will continue to rise, possibly evolving into a real supply shock.

Once oil prices continue to rise, it will directly impact inflation in the United States. Gasoline and diesel prices will inevitably increase, leading to higher costs in transportation, aviation, chemicals, agriculture, and food, and inflation expectations will also rise accordingly.

If high oil prices persist for an extended period, it will become increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, and it will cause the market to worry about recurring inflation. Current predictions show a significant increase in the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in 2026. This poses greater pressure on U.S. stocks and Bitcoin.

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