Today, the overall cryptocurrency market shows a pattern of rebound facing obstacles and undergoing consolidation. Bitcoin barely holds the $70,000 mark, while Ethereum struggles below the key resistance level, with both bulls and bears in a stalemate.
Capital situation and macro background
ETF capital divergence: Yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETF ended three days of net outflow, recording a net inflow of $167 million, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the main increment; whereas the Ethereum ETF has seen net outflows for four consecutive days, indicating that institutional funds show a more cautious attitude towards ETH.
Macroeconomic pressure remains: The rebound in US Treasury yields and the strengthening dollar are putting pressure on risk assets. Some analysts point out that high oil prices (Brent crude oil remains around $94) continue to elevate inflation expectations, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to shift to a looser policy, which is a core factor restricting the rebound of the crypto market.
Geopolitical uncertainty: The prospects for US-Iran negotiations are unclear, military deployments are ongoing, and risk premiums cannot be fully released, leading funds to prefer traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.
Bitcoin (BTC): Repeated contention at the $70,000 mark, MACD weakly recovering
Price performance
As of today, the price of Bitcoin has slightly retreated approximately 1% compared to yesterday. Although it has rebounded about 4% so far this week, the upward momentum has significantly weakened.
MACD indicator analysis
From the daily chart, the MACD indicator dual lines remain below the zero axis. Although the negative value range has narrowed, indicating that bearish pressure is weakening, the fast line has not crossed above the slow line to form a golden cross, implying that the current trend can only be characterized as a corrective rebound after a decline, rather than a trend reversal. At the 4-hour level, the MACD red bar momentum has weakened, reflecting the continued lack of strength in the bulls.
KDJ indicator analysis
On the daily KDJ side, the K, D, and J lines have slowly diverged upwards after forming the embryonic stage of a golden cross at low levels, with the J value having escaped the oversold area, indicating a relief of short-term selling pressure and some repair in market sentiment. However, it is worth noting that the J value of the KDJ on the 4-hour chart has quickly surged above the 80 overbought zone, suggesting a short-term need for technical pullback.
Key positions
· Upper resistance: $71,500-$72,150 area (50-day EMA overlapping with channel resistance)
· Lower support: $69,000-$69,500 area (integer mark and channel midpoint)
Price performance
Ethereum is currently consolidating in the $2,145-$2,185 range, underperforming Bitcoin. Although it has followed the rebound this week, it was significantly hindered near the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at around $2,195, failing to break through effectively.
MACD indicator analysis
The daily MACD indicator shows a weak positive value but is trending flat, with the fast and slow lines adhering below the zero axis, and the red momentum bars appearing intermittently, indicating a weak balance between bulls and bears. Compared to Bitcoin, ETH’s MACD structure is weaker, not yet forming a clear bottom golden cross signal.
KDJ indicator analysis
The daily KDJ three lines are currently operating near the 50 midpoint, maintaining a golden cross shape but with a slowing slope. However, like BTC, ETH also faces the issue of KDJ overheating at the 4-hour level — the J value previously quickly surged above 90 before starting to turn, and if it forms a dead cross, short-term downside pressure will increase.
Key positions
· Upper resistance: $2,195-$2,200 (50-day EMA suppressive area)
· Lower support: $2,100-$2,120 (short-term defense line), $2,000 (psychological mark)
Summary and strategy outlook
BTC and ETH are currently in a phase of consolidation after the rebound meeting obstacles:
· The MACD indicator shows that the daily level's downward momentum is weakening, but no trend reversal signal has yet formed; ETH's structure is weaker than BTC's.
· The KDJ indicator warns that there is short-term overheating at the 4-hour level, necessitating caution against a pullback or retest confirmation.
Operational strategy: It is advisable to remain cautious and avoid chasing up. BTC should pay attention to the effectiveness of the $69,000 support; if lost, it may test the $67,000-$68,000 area; ETH needs to observe if $2,100 can maintain; if broken, it may seek support at $2,000. Until a clear golden cross on the daily MACD is formed, the current rebound should still be viewed as range-bound oscillation, awaiting clearer trend signals to emerge.
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