The biggest news today is that the United States has already or is currently seeking to negotiate with Iran. The information from multiple channels suggests that a ceasefire may start for one month, during which at least third-party vessels can pass through the Strait of Hormuz smoothly. Of course, this also benefits from Trump's TACO, allowing both sides to remain calmer. The rumored focus of the negotiations is still on getting Iran to abandon nuclear weapons, although Iran has not yet admitted to resuming negotiations.

As a result of the negotiation information, the price of American oil has fallen below $90. Although there is a possibility of the war coming to an end, a Reuters and Ipsos poll has found that Trump's approval rating has dropped to 36%, the lowest since returning to the White House, and 61% of respondents oppose U.S. airstrikes on Iran. Trump must be feeling the pressure right now.

However, as long as there are no new exchanges of fire in the recent period, even if Iran has not stated that negotiations have begun, a temporary ceasefire may still be traded in the risk market, which would greatly help ease emotions.

Looking back at Bitcoin data, the turnover rate is not good, and investor sentiment is still quite normal. People may have already become accustomed to the volatility brought by the war, and the stability of the price of $BTC around $70,000 is still quite high. It has been accumulating around this level, and early investors have not shown signs of panic.

The key focus now is to watch the trend of the war. If it can be completely ended, the discussion will return to tariff issues. The longer the delay, the worse it will be for the risk market.

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