1. Macro Level (Macro)

1. Geopolitics and Middle East Conflict

Negotiations between Trump and Iran have been fluctuating, with significant differences still remaining between both sides' demands. It is expected that in the next 2 to 4 weeks, the situation in the Middle East is likely to remain in a "fighting while talking" state. From a political motivation perspective, Trump intends to promote a de-escalation of the conflict in the first half of the year to avoid facing high oil prices and a pressured stock market entering the second half of the election cycle.

2. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy and FOMC Meeting (Hawkish Bias)

Recently, the overall stance of major central banks such as the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan has turned more hawkish, with the market even beginning to factor in the possibility of the Federal Reserve "not cutting rates" or even "raising rates again" this year. The overall tone of the latest FOMC meeting was hawkish: the dot plot showed an increase in the number of committee members supporting only one rate cut this year; at the same time, the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations, and Powell downplayed signs of weakness in the labor market. Additionally, previously dovish official Waller also shifted to support maintaining current rates, further reinforcing the market's hawkish expectations.

3. Stagflation and Recession Risk Dispute

Risk Underestimation Group: There are views suggesting that the authenticity of current non-farm payroll data is questionable, and inflation has remained above the target level of 2% for several consecutive years. Once faced with significant external shocks, the U.S. economy could easily slip into stagflation or even recession, and the market's pricing of this risk is still insufficient.

Opposing View: Another faction believes that the U.S. is currently a net exporter of energy, with a much lower dependence on oil imports compared to the 1970s and 1980s. Therefore, simple high oil prices are not enough to drag the U.S. into typical stagflation. The deeper stagflation risk may actually stem from long-term fiscal expansion and the weakening of the Federal Reserve's independence. However, if key Middle Eastern straits are blocked for an extended period and the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance to suppress inflation, potentially raising rates again, the market's main trading logic may shift from "stagflation trade" to "recession trade."

4. Performance of Traditional Financial Assets and Trading Strategy

Gold Significant Decline: Recently, gold has not shown obvious safe-haven attributes, but instead has experienced a noticeable decline amid rising central bank tightening expectations and liquidity pressure.

Hedging Suggestions: In the face of short-term uncertainty, it is recommended to hold risk assets while appropriately allocating positions related to the VIX (Volatility Index), as well as fertilizer stocks and natural gas stocks that benefit from the natural gas shortage logic, as defensive hedging tools. If the future 1 to 3 months of volatility can be weathered, risk assets are expected to present better performance opportunities in the second half of the year.

2. Cryptocurrency Level (Crypto)

1. Market Trends and Sentiment

In the context of increasing macro volatility, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown stronger resilience compared to gold, remaining relatively stable around $70,000. Recently, after rebounding from $76,000, BTC fell back again and entered a phase of volatility. Currently, the trading volume in both the spot and futures markets is relatively sluggish, while the options market is relatively active, with the bias towards put options increasing and prices rising, reflecting a rise in market risk-aversion and panic sentiment.

2. Institutional Trends and ETF

The allocation direction of institutional funds has shown divergence. MicroStrategy's buying power for Bitcoin has significantly cooled, decreasing from adding 10,000 to 20,000 coins weekly to around 1,000 coins; however, at the same time, other institutions continue to purchase Ethereum on a large scale, with weekly purchases of approximately 60,000 coins. Overall, Bitcoin spot ETFs currently maintain a slight net inflow.

3. On-Chain Data and Bottom Judgment

From on-chain data, the profitability of long-term holders has fallen back to the fluctuation range corresponding to the previous bull-bear cycle bottom (green area), which indicates that the most severe phase of decline may have ended and the market is in a gradual bottoming process. Meanwhile, short-term holders have exhibited clear profit-taking behavior near $76,000, constituting phase-specific selling pressure.

4. Regulatory Benefits (Clarity Act)

In terms of regulation, the Clarity Act regarding cryptocurrency regulation has seen reduced resistance in achieving consensus in the Senate, with market expectations for its passage probability increasing to 80% to 90%. At the same time, the banking system may gradually relax restrictions, allowing users to participate in interest-bearing products related to stablecoins through indirect methods. This is seen as a clear policy boon and is expected to open channels for larger traditional funds to enter the crypto market.

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