Trump lied again, this time to save the shaky risk market and suppress the rising oil prices (inflation). This time, he set the deadline to "five days."

On the morning of March 23 Eastern Time, Trump announced on Truth Social that he had instructed the U.S. Department of Defense to "pause" military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for "five days," citing "very good and productive dialogue" between the U.S. and Iran over the past two days, moving towards a "complete and thorough resolution" of their hostile relations.

The market reacted immediately: spot gold surged over $100 in the short term, breaking through $4,400 per ounce; S&P 500 index futures soared 1.9%, and Dow futures rose 1.85%; Bitcoin broke through $71,000, rebounding 3.81% in an hour; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply by 8.4 basis points. The oil market, however, was severely impacted, with Brent crude briefly falling below $90.

However, less than an hour after Trump's tweet was released, Iran's official news agency Tasnim threw cold water on the situation—an Iranian senior security official stated that Trump's remarks were merely "psychological warfare," and that Iran had not engaged in any negotiations so far, nor were any negotiations in progress.

This scene echoed the one from two weeks ago. At that time, Trump claimed that "the war is completely over," which also triggered a brief stock market rebound and a drop in oil prices. The same formula, the same flavor.

The market is trading not for peace, but for Trump's bottom line

Knowing that Iran quickly denied, why did Wall Street still choose to "buy in"?

The answer is not peace, but rather a profound understanding of Trump's behavioral pattern by the market. Investors interpreted this statement as a signal: the president’s aversion to market declines will ultimately prevent him from executing the most extreme threats.

This war, which broke out three weeks ago, has placed pressure on the global economy. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off critical energy supplies, soaring energy prices have brought new inflationary shocks, and the global bond market has evaporated trillions of dollars. Tom Garretson from RBC Wealth Management stated candidly: "Trump has obviously been trying to suppress oil prices, but perhaps once again the bond market has forced him to change his stance."

Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, was even more direct: "If this isn't resolved in the next 7 to 10 days, we will face a major global economic shutdown. Today’s statement indicates that Trump realizes the real economy could fall off a cliff."

The "TACO trade" reappears: precise hunting by both bulls and bears

Trump's statement triggered a violent fluctuation in the crypto market, resulting in losses for both bulls and bears.

According to Coinglass data, within an hour of the announcement, the entire network faced liquidations totaling $359 million, with short positions accounting for $264 million. Trader James Wynn’s BTC short position, opened in the last two days, was completely liquidated. Meanwhile, "Maji," who was previously in the spotlight for "spending all his savings," urgently increased his ETH long positions to $2.42 million during the market’s rapid rise.

More dramatically, within this volatility, a long position in Brent crude on Trade.xyz was also liquidated—this means the market was not only moving in one direction, but was being pulled back and forth between Trump’s "ceasefire" message and Iran’s "denial."

The Rashomon-style truth of negotiations

The truth of the "dialogue" between Trump and Iran has become a Rashomon.

In an interview with Fox News, Trump claimed that the dialogue with Iran occurred "last night" and expressed uncertainty about what the Iranian media was talking about. He later further revealed that he spoke with "Iran’s top leaders," but not with the Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Israeli media provided more details. According to Axios, U.S. envoys Whittaker and Kushner had talks with Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf, with both sides likely to hold discussions in Islamabad, Pakistan, later this week. The U.S. representatives might even include Vice President Vance.

However, Iran continued to deny this. Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf personally clarified: "No negotiations have been held with the U.S." The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Trump’s remarks are intended to lower energy prices and buy time for his military plans.

Polymarket's accurate bets and insider trading suspicions

Just before Trump’s post, there were irregular transactions on the prediction market platform Polymarket.

Ten recently opened accounts placed large bets that the U.S. and Iran would cease hostilities before March 31 or April 15, totaling approximately $160,000. If a ceasefire occurs before the end of the month, these accounts would profit over $1 million. After Trump’s post, these accounts saw unrealized gains exceeding $300,000.

Even more concerning is that one of the accounts had previously bet on U.S. strikes against Iran, profiting over $85,000. The scale, timing, and past performance of these bets raise suspicions of whether they are insiders with access to undisclosed diplomatic information.

Meanwhile, S&P 500 e-mini futures and WTI crude oil futures showed isolated abnormal volume about 15 minutes before Trump’s post, with no apparent catalysts in the market at that time. Anyone who bought stock futures while shorting crude oil futures during that moment could have realized substantial profits within minutes.

Polymarket announced on Monday an upgrade to its insider trading rules, explicitly banning trading based on stolen confidential information or illegal insider news. However, both the SEC and CME Group declined to comment.

Iran’s "surprise" and Goldman Sachs’ warning

In the face of Trump’s "psychological warfare," Iran did not show weakness.

According to Iranian military sources, Iran has prepared new "surprises" for future battles in the coming days, which could have "significant effects." This source stated that Trump knows his ammunition is in "very poor condition," unable to achieve military victory or reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and therefore must resort to verbal attacks. He reminded Trump: "Should temporarily put down the phone and social media, and focus on the skies, stock market, and oil prices."

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs released its latest forecast, raising the probability of the U.S. economy entering recession in the next 12 months to 30%, an increase of 5 percentage points from previous expectations. The bank expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September and December, and anticipates that the annual GDP growth rate for the U.S. in the second half of this year will fall between 1.25% and 1.75%.

The new normal of the market: gasping in repetition

Trump's unpredictability is becoming a kind of "stabilizer" for the market—it keeps bulls from daring to chase prices and prevents bears from aggressively shorting.

Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz may have the most accurate assessment: "The truth depends on people’s perceptions, and Trump’s unpredictability only exacerbates uncertainty, which helps to prevent previously confident bears from pushing the market further down. All this unpredictability buys time for the market and prevents excessive confidence, whether good or bad."

At least for Trump and Wall Street, in a situation where the public overwhelmingly looks bearish, harvesting a wave of market-triggered short squeezes while slightly suppressing oil prices seems worthwhile.

However, the warning from Mizuho Bank strategist Jordan Rochester is equally worth noting: "The hardest thing is not predicting the direction of the war, but predicting how the White House will communicate and how the market will react to it. We are faced with a confused market that does not know whether this is a credible signal that the end is near or yet another performance of 'almost done.'"

Israeli officials revealed that Washington has set April 9 as the target date to end the war, meaning there are about 21 days left. Trump himself also admitted: "If the plan works, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon."

Five days later, the market will once again face Trump’s "deadline"—and this time, will it truly be the end, or yet another starting point of repetition?

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