On March 21, a well-known American media figure, Tucker Carlson, released the latest episode of his interview show.

The guest was not a senator, or a retired general, nor a scholar with a prestigious title from a Washington think tank, but a Chinese man named Jiang Xueqin. His daily identity is teaching history and philosophy at a private high school called "Moon Exploration School" in Beijing's Chaoyang District.

The show lasted over an hour, with topics ranging from the direction of the Iran war, the potential for Japan's nuclear armament, Israel's strategic calculations, the actual combat abilities of American ground troops, and the role Trump plays in all of this.

To truly understand this episode, one must start with Tucker Carlson.

The Lost Tucker Carlson

If someone asks who best represents the core spirit of America in this era among political journalists, Tucker Carlson is an unavoidable name.

Tucker Carlson

He is a top political commentator in America, and the Tucker Carlson Tonight show he hosted has long held the number one spot in political program ratings, being the most important media stronghold for the conservative camp.

More importantly, he is also one of the most significant media allies of the MAGA movement. Trump sees him as "one of his own," and during the 2024 election period, the two appeared together multiple times; Carlson was almost the loudest trumpet for the MAGA movement in the media.

But everything changed after the February US-Israel joint military strike on Iran.

Carlson openly condemned this war, calling the joint strike operation "disgusting and extremely evil," clearly stating, "This is Israel's war, not America's war." Trump soon kicked him out of MAGA: "Tucker has lost his way; he is not MAGA. MAGA is about making America great again; MAGA is America first, and Tucker does not represent any of that."

Afterward, Carlson publicly claimed that the CIA was preparing to sue him under the charge of "unregistered foreign agent," merely because he had had text contact with the Iranians before the war broke out.

This war thus evolved into a split between the MAGA camp and the establishment: the establishment attempted to salvage its decline through war, while some represented by Carlson believed this was digging their own grave. Trump's expulsion of Carlson from MAGA was a reflection of this internal rupture.

Currently, Carlson's situation is highly ironic: he had predicted countless times on his show that the "deep state" would use legal means to target dissenters. But now, he himself has become a dissenter.

At this critical juncture, he invited Jiang Xueqin—a Beijing high school teacher who predicted two years ago that America would lose this war—into his spotlight.

Three Predictions That Made Him Famous

In May 2024, when Biden was still leading the White House, and Trump hadn’t yet experienced two assassination attempts that summer, the electoral situation was still unclear. And during an apparently ordinary class, Jiang Xueqin made three predictions to his students:

1. Trump will win the election in November

2. The US will get involved in a war with Iran

3. The US will lose this war, leading to a permanent change in the global order

Looking back now, the first two predictions have come true:

On November 5, 2024, Trump defeated opponent Harris in the US election

On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a joint military strike on Iran

Predictive History video screenshot

The third prediction is still ongoing.

The content of these classes has been uploaded to his YouTube channel "Predictive History." There are no subtitles, no editing—only a clean and decent-looking Teacher Jiang and a blackboard. According to his own account, the inspiration for the channel came from the concept of "psychohistory" introduced by science fiction writer Isaac Asimov: believing that history has structural laws, and through mathematical models and group psychology analysis, the future direction can be deduced.

After the outbreak of the US-Iran war, this old video from 2024 went viral across the internet, with Americans expressing their astonishment in the comments section. This also made Jiang Xueqin famous, with the video's daily viewership surpassing 4 million, and the channel's subscribers surpassing 2 million.

Will the US Lose This Middle Eastern War?

In 415 BC, immersed in the illusion of imperial peak, Athens rashly regarded Sicily as a soft target. They launched the most luxurious expeditionary fleet in history but due to severed supply lines and a collapse in local support, lost an entire generation of their finest young men and nearly all their savings on that distant land.

This is Jiang Xueqin's historical analogy for the potential fate of "America getting involved with Iran."

His core argument is that the US military is essentially a "muscle display" system from the Cold War era—expensive and focused on technological deterrence, rather than the resilience needed for prolonged consumption warfare. This mismatch manifests absurdly in reality, such as using intercept missiles worth millions of dollars to counter a drone that costs $50,000.

After the war began, Jiang Xueqin still believes Iran has the advantage over the US. During an interview on the American independent news commentary program "Breaking Points" on March 3, he pointed out that Iran holds a sinister trump card: by attacking desalination facilities in the Gulf region, the entire petrodollar system could collapse within a few weeks.

90% of Kuwait's drinking water comes from desalination, as does 70% in Saudi Arabia. Once these facilities suffer systematic destruction, it would deepen regional instability and further trigger humanitarian disasters and a migration crisis in the Gulf region.

Jiang Xueqin on Breaking Points

Just five days after the program aired, on March 8, Iran attacked a desalination plant in Bahrain.

A desalination plant in the Middle East

In Tucker Carlson's program, Jiang Xueqin's predictions were further-reaching and more disturbing:

The modern global economy is founded on one premise: energy is cheap and readily available. And this premise is currently collapsing.

Tucker Carlson in conversation with Jiang Xueqin

Jiang Xueqin believes that the Iran war will be highly similar to the Ukrainian war: dragging on and turning into a war of attrition. The US cannot withdraw because once it does, the only regional power that can fill the security vacuum is Iran. And about one-fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily; if Gulf countries turn to Iran, the petrodollar system will collapse.

His expression is very direct: "Today's American economy is essentially a Ponzi scheme, relying on foreign countries to continuously purchase dollars to keep it operating" while the US currently bears nearly $39 trillion in debt, having relied on oil-producing nations to settle oil transactions in dollars and then recycle that money back into the American economy for decades. Once this cycle is interrupted, the consequences will be devastating.

On this judgment, he outlines three grand trends that he believes will come regardless of who wins or loses: de-industrialization due to expensive energy, countries being forced to re-arm, and the return of mercantilism after the collapse of global supply chains.

He also predicts that to maintain the frontline, Trump is very likely to order national conscription, which could trigger street riots, followed by the deployment of the National Guard. "So unfortunately, the US is likely to experience years of factional violent conflict," he stated on the program.

Under this logic, this year's Oscar-winning film "1917" may no longer be a mere screen hypothesis but rather a final rehearsal on the eve of systematic collapse.

The Foundation of His Predictions

Jiang Xueqin's growth trajectory is itself a history of crossing boundaries. He immigrated to Canada with his family at the age of 6 and grew up in Toronto. With a scholarship, he entered Yale majoring in English literature. After graduation, he returned to China. For nearly twenty years, he worked as a journalist, documentary director, and UN project officer, while also deeply involved in China's educational reform practices.

In 2022, he returned to Beijing and joined Moon Exploration School. Its 95-born founder, Wang Xiqiao, is also an active innovator in education.

The educational logic of Moon Exploration aligns with the direction Jiang Xueqin has cultivated for twenty years: abandoning the evaluation of students based on subject scores, emphasizing solving problems in the real world.

Jiang Xueqin on Moon Exploration School's official website

Here, Jiang Xueqin teaches a year-long course on Western philosophy, guiding students to read "The Epic of Gilgamesh," Plato's "The Republic," and Descartes' "Meditations." But what he truly wants to teach students is to examine themselves and the world from a higher, critical, and objective perspective.

This is precisely the foundational ability that underpins his three predictions—not the accumulation of knowledge in a specific field, but a mode of thinking capable of penetrating appearances and identifying structural laws.

Those Who Grasp the Laws Are Scarce in Any Era

Jiang Xueqin once said in class that a correct historical framework should achieve three things simultaneously: connect the past, explain the present, and predict the future. Only by achieving these three points can one approach the truth.

The flames of desalination plants and the cracks in the petrodollar system are inevitable manifestations of structural forces reaching a certain node. The appeal of Asimov's "psychohistory" lies in its belief that beneath the surface of chaos, history has its own grammar. His three predictions serve as a self-verification of this framework in reality.

However, the framework itself does not provide answers. This might also be the reason Jiang Xueqin chose to remain in the classroom: not because the classroom is safe enough, but because there are still people willing to ask questions seriously.

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