What I worry most about every time is that Trump will cause trouble on the weekend. By Sunday, I thought there wouldn't be any issues, but here comes the news again. Just a few days ago, Trump, who confidently stated that he would ensure the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, indeed kept his promise and announced today that if Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the United States will completely destroy Iran's power plants.

Tonight, Iran's response came. Iran not only stated that it would completely close the Strait of Hormuz but is also preparing to retaliate, targeting energy and other infrastructure in the Middle East. Iran is well aware that if it cannot strike the United States, it will strike at America's allies. Iranian officials also indicated that Iran would shift from a defensive mode to an offensive mode and has stocked enough supplies to last at least a year.

Next, we will have to see whether Trump will back down, but regardless of the choice, Trump's war against Iran has already sparked strong controversy both domestically and internationally, and the situation has reached a very awkward position. Continuing to fight could mean that the conflict might escalate from military strikes to an energy war and a supply chain war, impacting the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, shipping, and global inflation. Not continuing to fight would mean acknowledging that the previous hardline stance of the U.S. was mostly pressure, which would harm its deterrent power.

For Trump, the issue is no longer about wanting to fight or not; rather, whether to fight or not, he will have to start bearing the costs. The same goes for the market. As long as this conflict remains on the brink of escalation, what is being traded is not short-term sentiment, but the risks of high oil prices, renewed inflation, and tightened liquidity.

Looking at the data for Bitcoin, Trump's antics today have already affected $BTC. The stable $70,000 level has struggled to hold and has directly dropped to around $68,000. We will have to see the reactions of Asian investors after the CME opens in the morning and American investors after the U.S. stock market opens in the evening. It is expected that there will be another gap after dawn.

Today it reached the dual price of $64,000, but I estimate that it should be unattainable.

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