Today, we will focus on three key issues, incorporating three exclusive tools for members: Major Orders Behavior, 45/90 Minute Custom Periods, Chip Distribution, to clearly break down the logic behind last night's sharp decline!

First, who was actually selling out last night?

Second, what signals were there that might have warned us in advance that the market was about to change?

Third, at this current position, what signals should we focus on observing?

Let's first address the first core question: Who is selling?

Some friends in the comments said that large traders on Binance were selling, and that judgment is correct!

During the high-level consolidation phase, Binance's large traders were actually in a state of stalemate between bulls and bears, with buying and selling amounts basically balanced.

The real force behind the selling started when the market turned downward, which is also why once the decline was initiated, the speed would accelerate.

Looking at Coinbase, the large institutional traders here started selling even earlier!

While the market was still consolidating at a high level, they had already started selling quietly, and as the market began to turn downwards, they continued to sell.

I have repeatedly emphasized before: Coinbase primarily corresponds to institutional funds in the US market. Institutions never wait for the market to collapse before bailing out; they always exit early, which is also a core leading signal for this round of decline.

The third principal seller is the large trader on Kraken, who decisively sold out as soon as the market began to decline, even quicker than the large trader on Binance.

To summarize the selling rhythm of the three major players:

• Coinbase: Selling in advance during consolidation + continuing to sell at the beginning of the decline

• Binance: Stalemate during consolidation + accelerating sales after the decline

• Kraken: Quickly selling after the decline starts

All three major players withdrew simultaneously, and the large traders had already escaped the peak in advance, which collectively triggered last night's rapid decline. This analysis uses real data from the past 24 hours.

In addition to spot market selling, another key signal cannot be ignored: large traders on Binance opened large short positions at high levels.

Opening short at high and closing at low, they accurately executed a wave of swings.

Here I want to emphasize a judgment technique: during a declining market, it’s important to observe whether large spot traders are crashing the market with market orders. Once there are dense market sell orders, the market will accelerate its decline. This action can be accurately tracked through the PRO large transaction indicator. The green circles in the image represent buy orders, and the red circles represent sell orders, which is clear at a glance.

We've thoroughly explained the first question, now let's move on to the second: What were the early warning signals before the decline?

Before last night's sharp drop, the BTC trend had already developed a very clear converging triangle structure, and there was also a key piece of data: open interest was slowly increasing.

The price continued to converge, while the market position was increasing, which is a classic signal of a potential trend change indicating that the market is about to choose a direction, likely downwards.

Here’s a practical tip that few people know: Cycle selection.

Most people just look at the 15-minute, 30-minute, 1-hour, or 4-hour cycles, but I often prefer the 45-minute and 90-minute special cycles, as they tend to catch shifts in momentum earlier.

First, let’s look at the 45-minute cycle:

During the late consolidation stage yesterday, there was a clear signal of insufficient upward momentum.

Old followers should remember this usage: under the premise that the MACD slow line has not broken the zero axis, two accumulation volumes appear, but the height of the volume and price have failed to break the previous high, which is a typical sign of weakness in momentum. The subsequent fast and slow lines will inevitably cross below the zero axis.

Although the price seems to be consolidating, the strength of each rebound is continuously weakening, indicating that the upward momentum is lacking, followed by a direct break below the moving average support. This usage should be firmly remembered.

Now let's look at the 90-minute cycle:

In the past, the price had retested the EMA31 moving average three times, without effectively breaking below it, leading many to mistakenly believe that the support was very strong.

However, the key detail is that each rebound high has been continually decreasing; while the bulls can maintain support, they are no longer able to make new highs, indicating that bullish momentum has been continuously exhausted.

I often use the moving average combination: EMA8/13/21/31/55/89, which paired with these two cycles will provide more accurate signals. When BTC broke below the key moving average last night, we also released a news alert, indicating that after the break, it would directly enter the chip support zone.

Lastly, the third question: What signals should we observe at the current position?

From the chip distribution perspective, BTC has returned to the concentrated chip area, with two core points to note:

First, the price has fallen below the most densely traded chip position, support and resistance have transformed;

Second, the current price is positioned in the lower half of the chip range, with the lower boundary just corresponding to a key technical point: Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%.

Currently, the market does not have volume supporting the rebound, which is not suitable for blindly entering the market; the short-term focus should be on the support range: 69500~69300.

In addition, we need to observe the capital momentum: the MACD fast and slow lines are still below the zero axis, and the OBV has not crossed the MAOBV, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is not fully repaired.

The concentrated chip area typically provides strong support/resistance effects, and the price will likely seek a balance between bulls and bears within this support area.

To summarize the entire judgment logic: Monitor major player movements + Observe structural trend changes + Analyze chip support.

This concludes our practical sharing, hoping to help everyone understand the underlying logic of this round of sharp decline!

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