Recently studying the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, I flipped through many books and materials, looking at the development history of Persia and the rise of the Gulf region, and fell into deep contemplation. We may be standing at a global rupture point, as the world order approaches "the final triple door."

If we view the past 500 years of global history as a long seasonal cycle, then we are perhaps standing at the threshold of an impending winter.

This is not a form of pessimistic intuition, but rather three precise historical prophecies that are simultaneously sounding alarms. Dalio, Neil Howe, and Turchin, each from perspectives of wealth, generations, and social structures, have early on predicted and described the impending crisis that is threatening to topple the establishment.

First door: Dalio's ledger, the collapse of monetary credit

Imagine a prominent family that has existed for a century. Initially, they worked diligently, had excellent credit, and the whole world was willing to hold the promissory notes they issued (dollars). But gradually, this family began to overspend and started printing promissory notes wildly to purchase the food and labor of others.

This is what Dalio refers to as the "big cycle." When debt accumulates to a point where it cannot be repaid and the internal wealth gap becomes extremely wide, an empire will enter three dangerous phases:

· Internal rifts: The poor resent the rich, and the left and right wings no longer negotiate together but instead wish for each other’s demise.

· External challenges: Other powers in the forest (such as major Eurasian countries) sense your weakness and begin to challenge your territory.

· Investor concerns: When the pricing power of oil dollars is damaged due to conflicts in the Middle East (such as a U.S.-Iran confrontation), that "promissory note" becomes worthless. This is not only an issue of rising oil prices but a tremor in the foundation of the entire Western asset pricing system.

Second door: Neil Howe’s “turning,” collective emotional eruption

If Dalio looks at the ledger, then Neil Howe examines the context of human history from a macro perspective. In his work "The Fourth Turning," he issued an absurd warning⚠️:

“At some point after 2025, America will cross a huge historical threshold, whose significance is comparable to the American Revolution, the Civil War, the Great Depression, and World War II… The risk of disaster is extremely high. The country may erupt in rebellion or domestic violence, geographically fracturing, or succumb to authoritarian rule. At that time, people will be busy celebrating the birth of the internet and the benefits of globalization, and no one will believe that winter will come.”

Looking at Neil Howe's warning now feels like a wake-up call; we are currently toiling away, celebrating the joys and anxieties of #AI, unable to extricate ourselves. But if we pause our work, clear our minds, and look up to the historical pulse of humanity, it seems Neil Howe’s warning is becoming a reality.

In his book, he posits the theory of the “Fourth Turning,” suggesting that history goes through a major reshuffling every 80 to 100 years, just as there are four seasons in a year.

First season: Post-war reconstruction and glory.

Second season: Awakening and rebellion.

Third season: Disintegration and skepticism.

Fourth season (now): Crisis and rebirth.

We are at the "winter solstice" of this cycle. At this time, the old institutional framework has decayed; people no longer trust the government, law, or media. This collective emotion is like a dry powder keg, waiting for just a spark, such as an uncontrollable war in the Middle East or a U.S. debt default, which could trigger a reckoning and a wave of societal upheaval.

At this stage, we may not try to find logic because "survival instincts" will take over the market. Volatility is no longer waves but tsunamis. Finding true winning currencies is key; this should be the fundamental reason for the explosion of physical assets like precious metals now.

Third door: Turchin's "elite surplus" theory, resulting in internal power struggles

Why do great powers often collapse from within? Mathematician Turchin has provided a brutal formula. He believes there are two deadly incentives for societal collapse:

People's impoverishment: Despite technological advancements, the living costs of ordinary people (education, healthcare, housing) soar, while real purchasing power stagnates, filling them with anger.

Elite surplus: This is the most dangerous. Society has produced too many “quasi-elites” with high degrees wanting to enter the ruling class, but the top positions are limited. Those elites who fail to rise (rebels) will actively incite the anger of the lower classes to dismantle the existing order.

When this group of "rebel elites" uses inflation and war failures as weapons, the disintegration of federal order moves from theory to reality.

🧐Endgame projection: When the U.S.-Iran conflict hits the "fast forward" button

If we insert these three logics into the current U.S.-Iran situation, the chain of crisis transmission becomes clear:

Energy supply interruption (the spark): If the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, oil prices will surge above $150, causing economies in Japan, South Korea, and Europe to collapse. This is no longer a simple inflation problem but a "death sentence" for the trust in the dollar (petrodollar).

U.S. debt sell-off (financial earthquake): Global holders find that America is unable to maintain order, leading to a run on U.S. debt. The Federal Reserve finds itself in a dilemma, printing money will cause hyperinflation, while not printing will cause the government to shut down.

Civil war incentives (social fractures): Economic recession combined with soaring prices, as Turchin says, the "rebel elites" will quickly ignite public resentment on social media. At this moment, external war failures will directly translate into internal social fractures.

In summary, we may need to pay attention to Dalio's "big cycle" suggestion and actively embrace physical assets. Historically, from the "Western centrism" started by Columbus discovering America in 1492 to the unipolar world since 1991, all have headed towards an ending in this overlapping multiple cycle.

For us as individuals, this means the familiar "efficiency first" era (globalization, low inflation, Mag 7 surges) has ended, and the era of "survival first" has begun. Hard assets, decentralized assets, and sovereign security will replace valuation models and become the new anchors.

This crisis is not an ending but a necessary path to the next 80-year cycle. In the ashes of the old order's collapse, a new order is being born. 🧐

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