The situation on Monday was consistent with expectations. After the IEA announced it would release strategic reserves of oil, prices began to decline. Additionally, on Monday evening, the United States announced it would allow Iranian tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which also helped ease oil prices. Currently, the price of American oil has dropped below $95, but whether it can continue to decline will depend on the tug-of-war between the United States and Iran.

In the latest announcements from Iran and the United States, Iran reportedly indicated that it would target American industrial assets in the Middle East. If this actually happens, it is estimated that the United States will also target Iran's oil facilities on Kharg Island. Unless the war ends quickly, this could lead to more volatility in oil prices.

Currently, the U.S. stock market estimates that the war will last more than four weeks and indicates that Iran may have only about 8% of its missiles left, while U.S. ammunition will be more abundant. If fighting can indeed end in about four weeks, the strategic reserves of oil released by the IEA and SPR should be able to last through this period, potentially limiting the increase in oil prices. It may be time to look for opportunities to short oil.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate has increased significantly, but the trading has mainly been by short-term investors who bought the dip in the past two days. It seems that many short-term investors are not optimistic about the price of $BTC, and several individuals have publicly stated that the price bottom may not have ended yet; we might currently be experiencing a phase of rebound.

For me, first, the war hasn't ended, and anything is possible. Secondly, there are still many potential risks. However, I still believe that it is not yet time for a reversal, as the focus is still on monetary policy.

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