The Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that it will strike American industrial facilities in "the region" within the next few hours and has called for personnel nearby to evacuate.

In Iran's public statements, American and Israeli-related economic and banking interests have been listed as targets. Currently, there is no complete list of names in public information, but Iran has previously stated that it mainly includes the areas of Jebel Ali, Khalifa Port, and Fujairah in the UAE.

If Iran truly expands its focus from military targets to industrial targets, it implies not just military retaliation, but that the conflict could enter economic warfare, energy warfare, and supply chain warfare.

Because industrial targets are different from military targets, industrial facilities are often connected to ports, refineries, storage, shipping, insurance, electricity, financial settlements, and once attacked, the impact could be even worse. Additionally, industrial sectors often serve as gathering areas for civilians, which means:

1. Target escalation

Iran wants to spread pressure from U.S. military bases and Israeli territory to American commercial and allied economic industries in the Gulf. Such strikes would cause more "pain" for the U.S. and its allies, but would also elicit a stronger retaliation from the U.S. and its allies.

2. Oil prices and inflation expectations become harder to reduce

If industrial targets, especially energy, ports, and loading terminals, are disrupted, the market worries not about a single explosion but about pressures on exports, shipping, rerouting, refining, and inventory. Currently, loading in Fujairah is affected, passage through Hormuz is severely obstructed, and U.S. oil has returned to around $100. The U.S. has even mobilized SPR and coordinated with IEA to release reserve oil to cushion the impact.

Even if energy becomes the target of attacks, the market could face greater panic, even with SPR and IEA releasing strategic reserves, as strategic reserves can only sustain supply for weeks. Furthermore, if conflict escalates while reserves are being released, the likelihood of traders stockpiling oil is higher.

3. The uncontrollability of the conflict is increasing

Many industrial targets are close to civilian areas, foreign investment zones, and transportation nodes, increasing the probability of collateral damage and misstrikes, and making it easier to trigger a wider retaliation. Iran previously called for personnel evacuation around certain ports in the UAE, and afterward, intercept debris led to a fire in Fujairah, which indicates that industrial targets are entering the attack framework, with spillover risks significantly magnified.

In summary, if Iran begins to strike U.S. industrial targets in the Gulf, it signifies that this conflict is escalating from military confrontation to economic infrastructure warfare. The target is no longer just to destroy military capabilities, but to raise costs related to energy, shipping, and supply chains, which is not good news for the risk market in the U.S.

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