Release Date: 2026.03.16 · BlockBeats

Trump will announce the "Hormuz Alliance" this week while considering whether to send ground troops to seize Halk Island; Brent crude oil does not trust him, surging over $3/barrel on Sunday, breaking through $105. Today, on another front, Alibaba has packaged all its AI assets into a business group, directly managed by the CEO, with China's second chip factory preparing for 7 nanometers on the same day.

1｜Hormuz Alliance + Halk Island Option, Trump has fallen into the trap he set for himself for the first time

Four sources told Axios that Trump is contacting multiple countries to form a "Hormuz Alliance" and will announce it this week, with the aim of forcibly opening up the Strait. Meanwhile, the White House is evaluating another option, which is to send U.S. ground troops to directly occupy Halk Island, through which 90% of Iran's oil exports are transited. The market does not buy it; Brent crude oil jumped over $3/barrel on Sunday, already surpassing $105. The WSJ also confirmed that the announcement of the alliance itself failed to suppress oil prices.

The essential difference between the two options is that the alliance is a diplomatic display and can still be reversed, while sending ground troops to the island is a substantial engagement with no "one-button withdrawal". This is the first time in the third week of the Iran war that Trump is truly pushed to an extreme; his usual style is instinctive and improvisational, with both playing and taking cards equally casual. But Axios's behind-the-scenes analysis says the war is the first situation he cannot unilaterally control the outcome; Iran's drones do not care if he tweets in the afternoon, and the Strait does not automatically reopen just because he held a press conference. On the same day, he also accused Iran of using AI to spread false information, marking the formal entry of AI into the information warfare framework of the Iran war.

The morning report discussed the cabinet being torn apart, with Sacks wanting to withdraw and Hegseth shouting "leave no survivors". The evening signal indicates that the cabinet has not yet reached a consensus, but Trump is simultaneously pushing for more aggressive military options externally. It is not a unified strategy, but two opposing directions moving simultaneously.

(Source: Axios / WSJ / Reuters)

2｜Alibaba ATH + China's second 7-nanometer factory, the "waist" of the sanctions system has been widened

Alibaba today established the Alibaba Token Hub (ATH) business group, directly overseen by CEO Wu Yongming, packaging together Tongyi Laboratory, MaaS business line, Qianwen, Wukong, and AI Innovation Division, bringing everything from foundational model development to consumer application into one chain. U.S. stocks rose nearly 3% pre-market. This is the first clear organizational move in the Chinese internet giants to systematize the entire AI chain, not just "setting up an AI department," but "reforming into an AI company".

On the same day, Reuters exclusively reported that China's second-largest chip manufacturer is preparing for 7-nanometer mass production on newly acquired land in Taiwan. Previously, the market consensus was that only SMIC could produce advanced processes, but now it has changed to at least two companies. Reuters Breakingviews published simultaneously that the AI voice of Chinese tech veterans like Baidu and 360 is being eroded by new stars like DeepSeek and Kimi.

The logic of U.S. sanctions is to choke off the leaders, restricting TSMC supply and blocking GPU exports. However, China's response is taking another route, integrating AI into the largest commercial entities at the application layer and allowing a second manufacturer to enter 7-nanometers at the manufacturing level. Each additional node reduces the precision impact of sanctions. This is not bypassing sanctions, but turning a single point into a surface.

(Source: 36Kr / Reuters / Bloomberg)

3｜On the eve of GTC, Thompson says it’s not a bubble; Foxconn, using profits, says "but demand hasn’t arrived yet"

Ben Thompson published the most accurately timed article today, titled "Agents Over Bubbles," which itself is a conclusion. AI is neither a bubble about to burst nor just a hype; the business model of the Agent era is the real issue. Nvidia's GTC opens tomorrow, and The Information reports it will showcase the Groq chips.

However, on the same day, Bloomberg's headline was that Foxconn's profits fell short of expectations, raising concerns about AI demand. Hon Hai is one of Nvidia's largest hardware manufacturing partners, and the profit miss has led the market to wonder if AI hardware shipments have already hit a ceiling. Meanwhile, Meta announced an investment of up to $27 billion in AI infrastructure, continuing to ramp up its investment after the morning report's announcement of "20% layoffs", with layoffs and increased spending occurring simultaneously.

The convergence of three signals suggests that Thompson is saying we've asked the wrong question, Foxconn is indicating that there is still a gap in demand, and Meta is asserting its commitment to continue building. GTC is the moment the exam paper is handed out, and Nvidia needs to clarify how the computing power of the Agent era is being monetized.

(Source: Stratechery / Bloomberg / Wired / The Information)

4｜The direction of two gray markets diverges; prediction markets are being sanitized; AI face-swapping scams are expanding production

Wired reports that the legal battle over prediction markets is not over, and Wall Street financial institutions have entered the betting fray on their own. The legal gray area has not prevented capital, which follows almost the same script as the early days of cryptocurrency.

At the same time, another Wired report reveals that dozens of Telegram channels are publicly recruiting "AI facial models," mainly seeking women. The job involves cooperating with AI video calling tools to complete up to 100 scam video calls a day, using real faces to package AI-generated scripts to defraud money. This is no longer just "AI tools being used for scams," but a complete gray labor market with recruitment, divisions of labor, and a pay structure.

The structure of both stories is the same; as AI expands on a large scale, where regulation has not arrived, the market rushes ahead itself. Prediction markets are moving toward legalization; the entry of institutional capital is usually a precursor to regulatory follow-up; AI face-swapping scams are moving toward industrialization, which paradoxically makes them harder to combat. They do not follow the same path, but they all start from the same starting point— the speed of AI capability dissemination is faster than that of governance.

(Source: Wired / Wired)

Also worth knowing ↓

On the day Alibaba ATH was announced, major U.S. tech stocks saw a broad pre-market rise, with Chinese concept stocks collectively strengthening. Meta and Intel rose over 3%, Alibaba rose nearly 3%, B station rose nearly 3%, and NIO and Li Auto rose over 2%. This was the strongest performance of Chinese concept stocks in the past week. (Source: 36Kr)

UniCredit launched an $28 billion offer to acquire the remaining shares of Deutsche Bank. After UniCredit took a minority stake in Commerzbank last year, it has now raised the offer to a controlling level, with the attitude of German regulators being a key variable; European banking consolidation is entering a real M&A phase. (Source: WSJ)

Leap Motor has achieved its first annual profit, learning the way to make money like "half-priced Li Auto." In China's EV market, after two years of price wars, the first to find a profitable model is not the leaders but Leap, which is priced at half of Li Auto; the next step for survivors is not to continue lowering prices but to build a moat. (Source: Quantum Bit)

Google and Accel sifted through 4,000 Indian AI startup pitches, with 70% being wrappers, ultimately selecting only 5. None of the selected were shell companies. In the busiest AI startup market, those that caught the attention of both Google and Accel are instead those that do not follow the trend. (Source: TechCrunch)

LinkedIn editor Daniel Roth used Claude Code to launch two iOS applications without writing a single line of code. Coming from a journalistic background with no programming expertise, he pushed the app onto the App Store using a "builder + reviewer" dual agent mechanism; this is something that actually happened, not a demo. The threshold for programming has moved closer to zero today. (Source: Lenny's Newsletter)

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