After the prediction market emerges, this is something that should enter everyone's system thinking:

Polymarket is strong, but it does not give you answers; it shows you how the current group of people most willing to bet real money is pricing the uncertainties of the world.

Below 10%, can first be regarded as a small probability event;

Above 90%, can first be regarded as a strong market consensus;

In between, we need to continue observing trading volume, transaction depth, rule definitions, and how long until settlement.

Once you understand this concept, many issues will become clearer to you:

The speculative market is not pricing "value"; many times it is actually pricing attention, expectations, and human judgment biases.

Therefore, what is most worth observing in the prediction market is that it lays out the collective tendencies of a group of real money players in an extremely brutal and immediate way, right in front of you.

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