Today when looking at the data, I found that the negative correlation between the S&P 500 and American oil is still quite strong. This is what I mentioned a few days ago: by looking at oil prices, one can broadly judge the trend of American stocks. Recently, the price of American oil has risen, which has brought a downside to American stocks. However, the trend of Bitcoin is slightly different; it is quite noticeable that when the S&P 500 continues to decline, $BTC seems to be struggling to drop further.

Of course, this does not mean that Bitcoin has immediately reversed, but it should be noted that in November and December of last year, as well as in January of this year, Bitcoin exhibited significant overselling relative to American stocks, especially the overselling in January was very prominent. The overselling may likely lead to two points:

1. The panic sentiment investors have largely exited; unless there is a new, larger panic, the probability of a large-scale exit is low.

2. Although the purchasing power is not strong right now, investors are wagering on a rebound after the overselling, such as the end of a war where oversold assets may rebound the most.

Of course, the current focus is still on the geopolitical conflict between Iran and the United States. A worsening of the conflict may increase the likelihood of a downturn in all risk assets, but if there is an expectation of an end to the conflict, the rebound could be larger.

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