Original author: @MarylandHODL21

Original translation: AididiaoUJP, Foresight News

Over the past year, the market has been focused on a core question concerning the strategy company (Strategic):

Will mNAV expand again?

mNAV refers to the ratio between the company's market capitalization and the value of its Bitcoin holdings on the balance sheet. When the company's market capitalization is at a premium relative to its Bitcoin holdings, mNAV expands; when the premium narrows, mNAV decreases.

Last year, mNAV experienced significant expansion, reaching about four times the value of its Bitcoin holdings at one point. Subsequently, the premium gradually retreated to close to one time, which means that the current market valuation of the company is essentially aligned with the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

This compression phenomenon has sparked ongoing debate. Some investors believe that the previous premium was merely a short-term phenomenon driven by speculative sentiment; others argue that as long as Bitcoin rises again, the premium will reappear.

However, this debate may overlook more fundamental changes.

The current state of the market may not be a brief compression phase before the next expansion.

It might signify a profound shift in the overall operation of the company's capital structure.

Current Debate: ATM Issuance vs Bitcoin Accumulation

The current market discussions are primarily focused on the interpretation of the company's equity ATM (at-the-market) issuance plan.

Critics argue that this move is diluting the rights of existing shareholders.

Supporters argue that as long as Bitcoin is still undervalued, issuing equity to purchase Bitcoin is a rational choice.

Both sides have their points.

But neither has grasped the deeper strategic logic.

The company is not simply issuing equity to buy Bitcoin.

It is building a layered capital structure that can sustain expansion.

And this structure operates under vastly different logics at different mNAV ranges.

Two Key mNAV Ranges' Operational Logic

The strategic significance of equity issuance depends on whether the company is near one time mNAV or in a significantly premium state.

Range One: mNAV Compression Period (Close to One Time)

When mNAV is close to one, the effectiveness of equity financing is relatively limited — the market's valuation of the company is essentially equal to the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

In this environment, equity dilution must be justified through direct Bitcoin accumulation.

The capital operation logic at this time is roughly as follows:

• Equity ATM financing → Purchase Bitcoin
• Preferred stock issuance → Purchase Bitcoin

This is precisely the stage the company is in right now.

From this perspective, the company's current equity issuance is neither arbitrary nor speculative but is based on the judgment that Bitcoin’s long-term value is undervalued.

At this stage, even with limited premiums, issuing additional equity can still enhance the quality of the balance sheet by increasing Bitcoin holdings.

In other words, the company is still in the Bitcoin accumulation phase.

Range Two: mNAV Expansion Period (Three to Four Times or Higher)

Once the equity premium significantly expands, the operational logic undergoes a qualitative change.

When mNAV is clearly above one, equity will transform into a highly efficient financial tool.

At this point, the optimal use of equity may no longer be direct purchases of Bitcoin.

Instead, equity issuance will become an efficient means to pay down debts incurred at other levels of the capital structure (especially preferred securities).

During this stage, the capital operation logic may evolve into:

• Preferred securities issuance → Purchase Bitcoin
• Equity ATM financing → Pay preferred stock dividends

This distinction is crucial.

When mNAV is at a high level, issuing a relatively small amount of equity can secure enough capital to cover significant cash payment obligations.

This makes equity an ideal tool for stabilizing the liabilities side of the balance sheet.

Strategic Value of Preferred Stock Layer

One important evolution in the company’s financial strategy is the introduction of preferred securities targeted at yield-seeking investors.

This type of security attracts a completely different group of investors from common stock.

Equity investors typically seek growth and Bitcoin exposure.

Preferred investors pursue stable yields.

The preferred stock layer enables the company to tap into the enormous global demand for yield-producing assets.

When these preferred securities are successfully issued, the raised funds can be used to continue increasing Bitcoin holdings.

However, preferred securities come with an important constraint:

They create an ongoing obligation to pay dividends.

As the scale of preferred stock expands, the obligation to pay dividends increases correspondingly.

This means that the company must achieve a delicate balance among the following three factors:

• Growth of Bitcoin holdings
• Coverage of preferred stock dividends
• Control of equity dilution

This is precisely the strategic value of equity ATM.

Proactive De-leveraging Function of ATM

Another perspective on understanding the company's current equity issuance is that it is not a response to current balance sheet pressures.

Rather, it is a strategic layout for future balance sheet expansion.

If the scale of preferred stock continues to expand, the company's dividend payment obligations will also increase accordingly.

Issuing equity at the current stage can achieve multiple objectives:

• Increase Bitcoin holdings
• Enhance liquidity reserves
• Reduce leverage pressure from future payment obligations

In this sense, the ATM mechanism can be seen as a proactive de-leveraging tool.

The company does not have to wait until the pressure of dividend payments appears to respond passively but can proactively solidify its equity base step by step.

This helps improve coverage ratios and strengthens the overall capital structure’s resilience to risks.

Why mNAV May Re-expand

The core question remains: what factors will drive mNAV to expand again?

From historical experience, the answer is relatively simple.

mNAV expansion comes from the rise in Bitcoin prices.

Investors view strategy companies as leveraged investment tools for Bitcoin, hence when Bitcoin rises rapidly, the company's stock price increases significantly.

However, the continual evolution of the company's capital structure is introducing a second potential driver of valuation.

As the preferred stock layer expands, the company continues to demonstrate its ability to finance across investor groups, and the market may start to view it not just as a Bitcoin holder but as a Bitcoin financial platform.

In other words, investors may begin to price this financial engine itself.

From Bitcoin Treasury to Bitcoin Capital Market Platform

If this trend continues, the company could eventually evolve into a Bitcoin-like financial institution.

Different investor groups can have their interests served at different layers of the capital stack:

• Yield-seeking investors allocate preferred securities.
• Growth-oriented investors allocate equity.
• The company utilizes these capital sources to continuously increase Bitcoin holdings and expand financial operations.

This structure is gradually forming a capital market operation mechanism centered around Bitcoin.

In this scenario, the company’s valuation reflects not only the value of the Bitcoin it holds but also its core capability to continuously attract capital and transform it into Bitcoin financial products.

This logic may support mNAV in maintaining a sustained premium.

Evolving Capital Flywheel

If this model operates successfully, it will create three mutually reinforcing drivers:

• Preferred market demand → Provides funds for Bitcoin purchases
• Equity market demand → Prices platform growth
• Bitcoin appreciation → Strengthens balance sheet quality

The three support each other, creating a positive cycle.

The result is a financial structure that can continuously expand alongside Bitcoin's development.

Reinterpreting the Perspective on mNAV

The debate on whether mNAV can expand again typically assumes that the answer hinges on Bitcoin prices.

But this assumption may soon become outdated.

In the previous cycle, mNAV expansion stemmed from Bitcoin's rise.

In the new cycle, mNAV expansion may arise from the value creation of the capital structure itself.

If the strategy company successfully builds a scalable Bitcoin capital market platform, its equity premium will be derived not only from Bitcoin holdings but also from the entire financial system constructed around Bitcoin.

If this vision comes true, the discussion regarding mNAV will change completely.

At that point, the core question will no longer be whether the premium will reappear.

Instead, it will be about what scale this platform can ultimately expand to.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。