It is still a day dominated by war. Today, I saw an article saying that a poll by Morning Consult shows that 48% of Americans believe Trump is responsible for the rise in oil prices, while only 16% blame oil companies, 13% blame the global market, and 11% blame former President Biden. More than a month after the geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran, gasoline prices in the U.S. have risen over 20%, averaging $3.6 per gallon.

The reason for blaming Trump mainly stems from the belief of the American public that Trump personally ordered military strikes against Iran, which directly triggered this conflict and led to the disruption of global oil supply. Moreover, in the latest Kalshi prediction regarding the midterm elections, the probability of the Democratic Party winning the House has risen to 85%, which itself is a reflection of distrust towards the president.

During his campaign, Trump also claimed that he would cut energy prices (including gasoline and electricity) in half within 12 months and reduce gasoline prices to below $2 per gallon. I remember reporting back then that it would be beneficial for $BTC mining, but now 12 months have passed, and not only has the price of gasoline not been halved, it is also higher than the $3.5 that Trump has constantly criticized Biden for.

The midterm elections should be tough for Trump and the Republican Party.

Returning to Bitcoin's data, all metrics appear very normal. Investors have gradually adapted to the current fluctuating situation, and there has been no emotional shift regarding $BTC around $70,000. The turnover rate and trading volume are both decreasing, giving the feeling that it is gradually entering garbage time, and investors have little interest in the current price.

This situation is also good for Bitcoin right now, as it is a time of low liquidity and low sentiment. If it can endure this period, any positive market news, such as a stop to the war or the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates, would drive prices up. Of course, it is highly likely that this will happen in the second half of the year.

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