Original author: @c4lvin, Four Pillars

Original translation: AididiaoJP, Foresght News

Core Conclusion

If $100 is invested in each of the 59 tokens newly listed with the Korean Won trading pair on Upbit in 2025, by March 11, 2026, the value of this portfolio remains only 31% of the original investment (i.e., each dollar falls to $0.31). Bithumb (144 tokens) performs similarly, also at 31%; Binance (92 tokens) is slightly lower at 29%. All three major exchanges have resulted in approximately 70% asset shrinkage.

Among the 59 tokens listed on Upbit, only two ultimately achieved profits: KITE (up 232.8%) and BARD (up 9.3%). Bithumb performed slightly better, with 8 out of 144 tokens maintaining positive returns. The median return rate for Upbit is -80.9%, while Bithumb is -82.1%.

For the 50 tokens listed on both major Korean exchanges, the average return rate (-69.4%) is almost identical to the 94 tokens exclusively listed on Bithumb (-68.9%). This data indicates that being listed on multiple mainstream exchanges does not guarantee subsequent price performance.

Research Background

This analysis is inspired by a data chart released today by Messari research analyst @Degenerate_DeFi.

Data source: @Degenerate_DeFi

The chart shows that if $100 is invested in each of the 92 tokens newly listed on Binance in 2025, by today, each dollar investment remains only $0.29. This means that out of a total investment of $9,200, the cumulative loss reaches 71.7%, with a remaining value of about $2,600.

As the largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume globally, Binance's listing standards are generally considered stricter than those of smaller platforms, and its liquidity advantages are unmatched. If Binance's data performance is such, what about the situation on Korean exchanges? The Korean market is dominated by retail investors, and the trading model significantly differs from the global market. Will these differences affect the performance of newly listed tokens? Or will the data ultimately reveal similar patterns?

This article will employ the same methodology as the analysis of Binance to systematically analyze all tokens that obtained Korean Won trading pairs on Upbit and Bithumb throughout 2025.

Research Methodology

Scope Definition and Selection Criteria

This study covers all tokens that had new Korean Won trading pairs added on Upbit and Bithumb from January 1 to December 31, 2025. Among them, Upbit has a total of 59 tokens, while Bithumb has a total of 144 tokens. For Elixir (ELX), Strike (STRIKE), and AI16Z, which were listed in 2025 but are now delisted, this study treats them as completely lost.

The investment simulation rules follow the unified framework used by Messari to analyze the performance of Binance's listed tokens. We assume that $100 is invested in each token at the closing price on the first day of the listing and held until now without any selling operations. By daily tracking the cumulative value and return rate of this portfolio, we construct a time series dataset.

Selecting the closing price on the first day as the buying point was a careful consideration. On Korean exchanges, the opening price on the first day is often significantly pushed up due to intense volatility and speculative buying. Using the closing price effectively filters out this short-term noise.

Data Collection

Price data is obtained directly through the public REST APIs of each exchange. For Upbit, we use the daily K-line interface to collect complete daily OHLCV data for each token from the date of listing to March 11, 2026, and cross-verify the current prices through the market data interface (/v1/ticker). For Bithumb, we use the 24-hour K-line interface to obtain corresponding data for the same period. To simplify the model, this study does not consider the fluctuations in the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Korean Won.

Overall Performance

The following chart visually presents the simulation results. Subsequent sections will provide detailed interpretation and analysis of this data.

Comparison of Three Major Exchanges

The comparative performance of newly listed tokens on the three major exchanges in 2025 is as follows:

All three major exchanges recorded approximately 70% losses. Upbit (-69.5%) and Bithumb (-69.1%) performed nearly identically, while Binance (-71.7%) is also close. Regardless of the exchange chosen, investors who bought new tokens on the first day lost approximately 70% of their initial funds on average.

Return Rate Distribution Characteristics

The overall average is not sufficient to reveal the differences in individual token performances. The following sections detail the return rates of each token by intervals:

Both exchanges have over 40% of tokens concentrated in the -75% to -90% loss range. On Upbit, this range accounts for 46%, with another 9 tokens (15%) experiencing extreme losses over 90%. Only two tokens ultimately achieved positive returns: KITE (up 232.8%) and Lombard (up 9.3%).

Bithumb's return rate distribution is more diversified. It has more profitable tokens, totaling 8, but also has 33 tokens that encountered extreme losses exceeding 90%. This diversification partially stems from Bithumb's larger sample size of 144 tokens, but also reflects a broader project type coverage in Bithumb's listing strategy compared to Upbit.

The median return rate reveals a grimmer reality: Upbit is at -80.9%, while Bithumb is at -82.1%, both below their respective averages. This indicates that a few relatively resilient tokens have elevated the overall average level, while the typical performance of newly listed tokens is, in fact, more miserable than the surface data suggests.

Impact of Listing Time on Performance

To investigate whether the timing of the listing affects subsequent performance, we will compare the data by dividing it into two periods: the first half of the year (January to June) and the second half of the year (July to December).

The data shows that tokens listed in the second half of the year perform better on both exchanges. This phenomenon is intuitive: tokens listed at the beginning of the year experience a longer downward cycle. Considering that the overall crypto market in 2025 is in a downtrend, the longer the holding period, the higher the likelihood of accumulating greater losses.

It is noteworthy that the performance gap between the two halves is quite significant. On Bithumb, the return rate of tokens listed in the first half (-77.3%) differs from those listed in the second half (-59.4%) by about 18 percentage points, a difference that cannot be easily explained by time factors alone. Possible explanations include: tokens listed in the second half genuinely have stronger fundamental support, or market expectations may have become more rational due to the lessons from the first half.

Selective Paradox

Relationship Between Listing Quantity and Performance

In 2025, Upbit added 59 Korean Won trading pairs, while Bithumb added 144. Bithumb's listing quantity exceeds Upbit's by more than double and significantly surpasses Binance's 92 tokens. Upbit is known for having the strictest listing standards among Korean exchanges. However, despite the significant difference in the number of listings, the portfolio return rates of the two exchanges are almost completely identical: Upbit at -69.5% and Bithumb at -69.1%.

Analysis of Cross-Listed Tokens

For further in-depth exploration, we further compared the performance of tokens listed simultaneously on both major exchanges with those solely listed on Bithumb. The data shows that 50 tokens are concurrently listed on Upbit and Bithumb.

Logic dictates that projects able to be listed on both major exchanges should have a certain level of industry recognition. However, the average return rate of these 50 tokens (-69.4%) is almost identical to that of the 94 tokens listed solely on Bithumb (-68.9%).

This finding points to the following two conclusions:

First, being listed on multiple major exchanges does not provide any guarantee for subsequent price performance.

Second, the price inflation on the first day triggered by the listing event is a structural phenomenon that is unrelated to how much attention the project itself has received.

Whether a token has the "honor" of being listed on Upbit simultaneously or is quietly launched only on Bithumb, the losses borne by first-day buyers show no significant difference.

Survivor Analysis

Among the 59 tokens listed on Upbit, only KITE (up 232.8%) and BARD (up 9.3%) ultimately achieved positive returns. Only 8 tokens managed to keep their losses below 50%.

The 8 profitable tokens on Bithumb constitute a more diverse sample.

KITE recorded an increase of 209.6%, a significant outlier. However, it should be noted that this token has been listed for only four months, and interpreting its performance as a sustainable long-term result is premature. STABLE and DEXE should also be viewed cautiously due to their follow-up records of only three months.

Perhaps more revealing is the case of PAXG. As a token pegged to the spot price of gold at 1:1, its 69.0% increase is entirely driven by the steady rise in gold prices in 2025. This performance is unrelated to the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market, merely reflecting the macro trend of gold. In other words, the most reliable way to achieve profitability on Bithumb is, surprisingly, not to invest in cryptocurrency projects themselves.

Conclusion

This study concludes that the performance of newly listed tokens on Korean exchanges in 2025 shows no essential differences structurally from Binance. Although the Korean market is characterized by a high participation of retail investors, the listing strategies among exchanges are not the same, and the regulatory environments also differ, the average losses for first-day buyers across the three exchanges converge around 70%.

We believe that the core insight revealed by these data is that the root problem does not lie in the specific listing standards of a given exchange, nor in the quality issues of individual tokens, but in the inherent structural dynamics of the listing events themselves. When a token is newly listed on a mainstream exchange, concentrated retail demand will push the price up on the first day. As time progresses, the price naturally reverts, leading to losses for first-day buyers. The similar performance of tokens listed on both major exchanges and those listed only on one further confirms that these losses do not originate from the specific exchange or token but from the structural characteristics of the listing events.

It should be noted that this study measures the performance of a specific single strategy: buying at the closing price on the first day and holding until now. If short-term trading strategies, which utilize price fluctuations in the days following the listing, or strategies that wait for substantial price corrections to enter the market, were employed, vastly different conclusions might be drawn. However, such strategies require exceptionally high timing precision and diverge significantly from the actual behaviors of most retail investors.

The data from 2025 provides a clear takeaway: buying simply because a token is newly listed on a mainstream exchange is a systematically losing strategy, regardless of which exchange is chosen. This phenomenon is not unique to the Korean market but is a global structural issue. The problem does not lie with exchanges choosing inferior projects but rather with the demand-concentrating dynamics created by the listing events themselves, which consistently disadvantage first-day buyers.

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