While the entire cryptocurrency industry is still shivering in the cold winter and countless VC institutions choose to sit on the sidelines, the venture capital firm known as "Silicon Valley's wildest investor," a16z, has once again raised its shotgun.

According to Fortune magazine, a16z crypto is raising approximately $2 billion for its fifth fund, with plans to complete fundraising in the first half of 2026. Although this figure is half of the $4.5 billion "behemoth" from 2022, it is still enough to draw attention from the entire industry in the current market environment. The similarly influential VC in the Web3 industry, Dragonfly, announced on February 17 that its fourth fund size is only $650 million.

a16z's investment style in the Web3 industry is unique, and it has almost anticipated all the popular tracks. According to Fortune's report, a16z's fundraising plan this time is very rushed, with only 3 months left in the time window and it is investing only in blockchain-related projects.

We can't help but ask: what exactly have they seen?

A Venture Capital Revolution by Two Programmers

To understand a16z's choices today, we must go back to that winter in 2009.

The shadow of the financial crisis had not yet lifted, and a sense of pessimism lingered in Silicon Valley's air. Two already financially independent tech people, Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, decided to start a venture capital firm at the worst possible time. Their first fund aimed for $300 million, with the two personally committing $15 million.

How did the VC circle view it at the time? "This is a stupid idea; it should never be done." This is how Ben Horowitz recalled his peers' evaluations later.

In addition to being considered too aggressive for a $300 million scale, a16z's fundraising memorandum also contained a line that made their peers laugh: "We believe that technical talent is the primary resource, so we will build a platform team to serve founders." At that time, peers thought this would increase costs and drag down returns, also violating the traditional VC rule of "few but elite."

Today, almost all mainstream VCs are copying this "stupid idea," and this is a16z's DNA: daring to say "yes" when others say "no."

In 2009, a16z invested $65 million in the acquisition of Skype. At that time, eBay was embroiled in a patent lawsuit with Skype's founders, and everyone said the risks were too high. As a result, less than two years later, Microsoft took over for $8.5 billion.

In 2010, Benchmark partner Matt Cohler mocked a16z for buying shares in Facebook and Twitter on the secondary market as "trading pork futures." What was the outcome? Groupon's $17.8 billion IPO, Facebook's $104 billion IPO, Twitter's $31 billion IPO.

In 2015, a New Yorker journalist relayed a peer's skepticism: a16z wanted the first four funds to achieve returns of 5-10 times; the total valuation of the portfolio needed to reach hundreds of billions of dollars. Marc Andreessen made a dismissive gesture: "Nonsense. We are here to hunt elephants, chasing the big ones!"

Today, the total value of the investment portfolios of a16z's first four funds has reached $853 billion, far exceeding the original threshold. Hunting elephants later became one of the classic phrases in the VC industry, and a16z's two founders continuously use their experiences to inspire entrepreneurs: truly innovative ideas often seem very stupid at first.

This is the nose of the elephant hunter.

Early Layout in the Cryptocurrency Track

In 2013, when most people still viewed Bitcoin as a "geek's toy," a16z had already led Coinbase's Series B financing. At that time, Ethereum had not even been born.

Eight years later, Coinbase went public on NASDAQ, peaking at a market value of $85.8 billion. After cashing out $4.4 billion, a16z still holds 7% of the shares.

This is not luck, but foresight.

In 2018, the cryptocurrency market experienced its first major bear market, with Bitcoin dropping from nearly $20,000 to over $3,000. It was during this time that a16z officially launched its first cryptocurrency fund, Crypto Fund I, with a size of $300 million.

Once again, with the same $300 million, no one questioned their aggressiveness or model this time, and the choices of this fund were enough to silence those who doubted Web3. Between 2018 and 2021, a16z's crypto fund invested in projects including MakerDAO (now called Sky), Compound, Uniswap, Solana, Avalanche, NEAR, dYdX, Dapper Labs, OpenSea, and Axie Infinity.

According to DefiLlama data, the TVL of the three DeFi projects, Sky, Compound, and Uniswap, exceeds $11.4 billion, accounting for nearly 12% of the total TVL of all DeFi projects. While many names familiar to us from four to five years ago have disappeared into the dust of history, their past brilliance undeniably continues to impact today's Web3 world.

The value of the first fund's holdings at the end of 2021 had grown 11 times compared to the initial fundraising amount, making it one of a16z's best-performing funds. Even with a 40% drop in 2022, investors still profited significantly.

The success of Crypto Fund I made a16z the standout in cryptocurrency VC. In 2020, the second fund was $515 million. In 2021, the third fund was $2.2 billion. In 2022, the fourth fund was $4.5 billion. With over $7.6 billion in ammunition, a16z became the largest cryptocurrency venture capital institution globally. Projects invested in later, such as Optimism, LayerZero, Lido, and EigenLayer, have almost all become leaders in their respective fields.

Of course, a16z also follows trends and has made investment mistakes. In the market prediction battle, a16z chose to heavily back Kalshi; looking back, investments in Celo, Chia, Dfinity, and Farcaster also had some judgment errors.

In this cycle, a16z has held a rather negative attitude towards inscriptions and meme coins, having invested tens of millions to over a hundred million in "VC coins," which encountered an unprecedented debacle. But L2, LSD, and restaking, along with interoperability, can indeed be said to be the only "Web3 native" narratives completely absorbed by a16z.

You could say they possess elitist arrogance, but it's hard to say they are inexperienced.

The Double Life of a "Media Company"

In the Web3 field, a16z is almost wearing a golden robe, yet controversy has never ceased.

In 2015, former a16z partner Benedict Evans jokingly said: a16z is a media company that profits from venture capital. This statement later became a classic quote for critiques of a16z both inside and outside the industry.

In 2021, a16z launched Future.com, a centralized media platform, attempting to create a "content empire" in the tech field. However, this project was closed after 18 months of operation. The failure of Future.com did not deter a16z from its media strategy. On the contrary, they adjusted their direction—shifting from creating a centralized media platform to building a decentralized "media ecosystem."

In April 2025, a16z acquired Erik Torenberg's podcast network, Turpentine. This was a typical acquisition + talent acquisition deal, with a16z expanding its media and network business through the acquisition, while Erik Torenberg joined a16z to oversee investments and lead the media team. Seven months later, a16z officially launched a16z New Media.

In the official article "What is New Media?", a16z stated that the goal of the "new media" team is to create the best turnkey media operation in the venture capital field, helping entrepreneurs of portfolio companies win the narrative war, and more importantly, bypass traditional media.

In the AI era, the barrier to developing products has almost dropped to zero, but the ability to tell stories has unexpectedly gained higher priority. Giants like Anthropic, OpenAI, Netflix, and Microsoft have significantly expanded their comms/storytelling teams. If you've recently come across the view that you'll be eliminated without using AI on social media, that's likely from these AI companies.

After all, in an era where products can be created in a matter of hours, those who can sell products and services through storytelling are the ones who will survive.

I have often heard many people criticize a16z, believing they lack substance and often just help the companies they invest in to tell stories, waiting for buyers to enter. It now seems that this storytelling ability has become a scarce commodity in the AI era. Perhaps the fact that a16z can always see trends ahead is itself a story a16z tells, but I recently heard a very interesting story:

a16z is a nerd-friendly VC; they are very eager to find those talented individuals who, due to lack of social skills, are overlooked. These individuals are often inarticulate but have a myriad of whimsical ideas that seem almost impossible to realize to most people or contradict current mainstream thinking. Their shortcomings make it difficult for them to stand out in the crucible of humanity, but a16z has found them and brought them together.

When like-minded individuals gather, a vigorous chemical reaction occurs between them, greatly benefiting a16z's uniqueness.

The reasoning is simple: these people don't need to confront complex business wars but instead act as strategists behind the generals battling on the front lines. Visionary insight and a calm mind always allow them to take alternative paths. More importantly, no one here will outright dismiss a strange idea at the outset, because while outsiders might think they're crazy, those within the team know it might just be the one best answer.

Where Will the $2 Billion Be Invested?

Since October 2024, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant correction, with a total market value evaporating by over $2 trillion. In such an environment, many cryptocurrency VCs have chosen to retract their positions.

But a16z's choice is: to double down against the trend.

Chris Dixon has repeatedly stated that 95% of the assets a16z crypto holds are from historical investments. They believe that in venture capital, prematurely selling quality assets is the worst decision. Dixon views blockchain as the next infrastructure of the internet and believes the cryptocurrency industry is in a long "foundational period," much like the neural network papers published in 1943 for today's AI, and genuine mainstream acceptance requires decades of groundwork.

"We are thinking in century-long time dimensions." said a16z partner Katherine Boyle.

From this perspective, the current market downturn is actually the best time for layout. Valuations are more reasonable, high-quality projects are easier to connect with, and competition is relatively minimal. More importantly, a16z may have seen the next track that is about to explode.

Fortune's report mentioned several key points, such as a16z not wanting the fundraising time to be too long and investing only in blockchain-related projects.

We can roughly guess the message conveyed behind this: a16z sees some new trends and wants to lay out quickly, but several hundred million is not enough; they need at least $2 billion.

Many speculate they will invest in stablecoins, RWA tokenization, payments, Crypto+AI, and other well-known hot tracks. But I want to say that they must have seen something different, unfortunately, we do not know yet.

Although not explicitly stated, Chris Dixon hinted at some clues in a tweet on February 7:

We anticipate that financial applications will be the first to run through, so we invested in Coinbase, MakerDAO, Compound, Uniswap, and Morpho; but non-financial applications will ultimately catch up;

The emergence of financial applications first is not accidental, but a fundamental sequencing issue; only when enough people come in will new applications emerge;

The long-term absence of regulation and legislation in the crypto space has led the industry astray; once regulation is implemented, good money will drive out bad money;

It was precisely those chaotic years that resulted in the eventual brilliance, just as with the internet and AI.

Perhaps a16z has seen one or even a series of new potential tracks, or perhaps this $2 billion will not be directed towards new tracks; it may involve continuing to invest in those projects we believe are already dead or, like in a16z's early days, aggressively collecting chips in the secondary market.

a16z is there, continuing to do many things that many people find incomprehensible. But you, in front of the screen, will you still choose to believe this time?

Believing in the Power of Belief

Is a16z a preacher of Web3 or a shrewd harvester?

This question may not have a standard answer.

From a certain perspective, a16z has indeed reaped enormous returns from the rise of the crypto industry. Just one investment in Coinbase has brought them over $7 billion in returns. But from another perspective, if there were no institutions like a16z betting on early-stage projects, if they had not supported seemingly crazy entrepreneurs with real money, would the Web3 industry have developed to today's scale?

Their post-investment services have helped countless startups through their most difficult times. Their policy lobbying has fought for a more favorable regulatory environment for the industry. Their content output has educated generations of entrepreneurs and developers.

In this atypical cycle, we've seen the market's aversion to VCs. a16z also once used a massive amount of UNI reserves to try to make LayerZero the choice for Uniswap's cross-chain interoperability, but the market seemed solely focused on combating VCs by propping up Wormhole.

At the end of 2021, Musk joked on X, "Has anyone seen Web3? I can't seem to find it!" Jack Dorsey responded sarcastically, "It might be somewhere between A and Z."

Looking at it today, these two jabs hit the nail on the head. The concept of Web4.0 has already been proposed, yet Web3 has not clearly defined itself. Many partners of major Crypto VCs are choosing to leave, many founders of Crypto projects are stepping back, and many investors are beginning to focus on stocks and commodities markets.

a16z has chosen to believe in Web3.

I have actually had moments of doubt over the past couple of years, but whenever those hard moments arise, I recall the chicken soup shared by many successful businesspeople: focus on what the smartest group of people in the world is doing, and you will be right to follow them.

Now, the smartest group of people in the world is definitely working on AI, but among them, some continue to hold firm to crypto. Like you, I do not see especially obvious potential and hope; we seem incapable of seeing the future. What we can do is keep a close watch on the projects funded when that new $2 billion fund begins to deploy.

After all, over the past 15 years, this "elephant hunter" has proved one thing: while others are still debating whether elephants exist, they have already pulled the trigger.

"Realizing the changes of the times, fully committing to the entire trend, participating in and witnessing many successful cases, 'Digital Surfing' reminds everyone that as the top 10% of this era, the most important mission is to correctly identify the strongest trends of this era, wholeheartedly accept them, stop questioning, think actively, and bravely get on board."

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