Written by: Jae, PANews

In today's global financial landscape, the crumbling old Babel Tower of traditional payment systems is facing fierce challenges from new forces.

On March 10, Circle's stock price surpassed $110, doubling from its yearly low, with the stock rebound reflecting a restructuring of the capital market's valuation logic regarding the "stablecoin issuance" business model.

From the fluctuating stock prices on the New York Stock Exchange to the trillions of dollars flowing on-chain, and the small payments circulating between AI Agents, while some still criticize cryptocurrencies for lacking innovation and chase the AI trend, Circle has quietly positioned itself precisely between the hegemony of settlement networks and the sovereignty of Agent currencies.

Behind the Doubling Stock Price, Geopolitical Crises Become a Boost

In less than nine months, Circle completed its IPO, marking its coming of age in the mainstream capital market and passing the trial of its stock price's "rebirth".

During the initial speculative surge after listing, Circle, as the first publicly traded stablecoin, soared from an issuance price of $31 to $260, before plummeting to a low of around $50. After experiencing a painful adjustment period, Circle's stock price once again surged, breaking through the $110 mark.

Circle has exhibited a qualitative change from "speculative growth" to "performance-driven growth". The financial report released in February was a turning point. Circle's total revenue for the fiscal year 2025 reached $2.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64%. In the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4), its revenue reached $770 million, with a year-on-year increase of 77%, far exceeding market expectations.

A detail in the financial report is particularly noteworthy: the $70 million net loss for the fiscal year 2025 was mainly impacted by $424 million in stock compensation expenses related to the IPO.

Excluding this one-time non-cash item, Circle's profitability would significantly improve, with Q4 net profit reaching $133 million, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year increase.

Circle is demonstrating the typical operational leverage effect of financial technology giants: the larger the circulation scale, the lower the marginal cost, and the greater the profit.

Complex global geopolitical games have unexpectedly benefitted stablecoin issuers. Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, Brent crude oil prices have risen about 15% in a week, and this return of inflation expectations further reduces the likelihood of interest rate cuts, while maintaining high interest rates provides a better profit environment for Circle, which mainly derives income from government bond interest.

Mizuho Bank analyst Dan Dolev believes that the inflation pressure caused by soaring oil prices will prompt the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts. CME FedWatch data indicates that the market's prediction of a "no rate cut" probability for 2026 has risen from 79.9% a month ago to 97.3%.

For ordinary businesses, high interest rates mean higher financing costs, but for Circle, high interest rates mean higher reserve income. As long as interest rates remain high, Circle's interest margin income will stay at a considerable level.

Currently, USDC's circulation has reached $753 billion, with a year-on-year quarterly growth of 72%. Even slight fluctuations in interest margins can have a massive leverage effect on Circle's net profit.

This "higher for longer" interest rate environment has actually led to a greater increase in Circle's valuation multiples than its short-term revenue fluctuations.

It is worth mentioning that the recent surge in prices essentially includes recognition of Circle's "settlement technology premium". The on-chain trading volume of USDC surged to $11.9 trillion in Q4 last year, a year-on-year increase of 247%.

Thus, Circle is not just an "asset management institution that benefits from interest margins," but also a "settlement technology network" that handles over $10 trillion in quarterly settlements, capable of threatening traditional payment giants.

Of course, the capital market's attitude is not without reservations. Even with strong stock price performance, the more than $47 million in reduction by Circle's executives in the past 90 days acts as a cloud over the market, affecting investor sentiment to some extent.

USDC Monthly Transfer Volume Surpasses USDT, Signifying a Shift in Power

In February, the stablecoin sector witnessed a moment of surpassing. According to Allium data, the overall monthly transfer volume in the market reached $1.8 trillion, setting a new historical record.

Behind this number, the power shift of "fund velocity" is more intriguing than market capitalization growth.

Although USDT still dominates with a market capitalization of $184 billion, USDC has achieved an overtaking in fund velocity. In the total transfer volume in February, USDC processed approximately $1.26 trillion, accounting for nearly 70%. Fund velocity determines who is the real flowing blood.

From the nature of the currency, USDT is increasingly seen as a store of value, primarily deposited in margin accounts at centralized exchanges; whereas USDC is evolving into a medium of circulation, skyrocketing in scenarios such as institutional settlements, prediction markets, and trade payments.

Circle's explosive growth in February was mainly due to its ecological positioning.

Visa's deep integration acts as a catalyst. By introducing USDC settlements between acquiring institutions and issuing institutions, the traditional payment process bypasses the cumbersome corresponding bank system, achieving round-the-clock settlement. This means that even during bank holidays, multinational companies' acquiring funds can be settled on-chain in USDC, greatly enhancing capital efficiency.

The phenomenal rise of Polymarket provides a demand-side validation of the native cryptocurrency scenario. As the main settlement currency, USDC plays the role of a "universal currency" in betting on global major events, significantly increasing its turnover rate.

Additionally, Circle's penetration in emerging markets such as Latin America and Africa has started to bear fruit. Local businesses are increasingly using USDC as a tool to hedge against local currency depreciation and for cross-border trade settlements. In these regions, stablecoins are no longer speculative tools, but rather essential for survival.

Eliminating Micro-Payment Pain Points, USDC Aims to Become "Agent Financial Vernacular"

If the $1.8 trillion monthly transaction volume marks humanity's acceptance of stablecoins, then 140 million AI Agent payments herald the arrival of the "Agent Finance" era.

In the past nine months, over 400,000 procurement-capable AI Agents have demonstrated extremely high payment activity, with 98.6% of the transaction volume choosing USDC.

Why USDC?

Peter Schroeder, Circle's Global Market Director, cites data indicating that the average transaction amount for AI Agent payments is only $0.31. This small amount reveals the fundamental pain point of the Agent economy: micro-payments.

AI Agents incur costs such as API call fees, computational power rental fees, and data collection fees when performing tasks. Within traditional banking or credit card systems, processing a $0.31 transfer could lead to transaction fees exceeding the transaction itself. This expensive cost structure makes it difficult for Agents to make payments through traditional channels.

However, the economic reasoning is merely the surface; the deeper reason for Agents choosing USDC lies in the technical components provided by Circle.

Circle's programmable suite allows developers to directly embed wallet management logic into AI code. Through the Model Context Protocol (MCP) servers, developers can enable AI such as Claude, Cursor, or Windsurf to directly generate scripts that call for USDC payments. This ease of development also prompts USDC to become the default option for Agent payments.

The Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) addresses the last hundred meters issue. Agents typically operate on low-cost, high-concurrency L2s or high-performance public chains such as Base or Solana. On these networks, USDC transfer fees are less than a cent and can be completed within seconds. CCTP enables seamless liquidity migration between different chains, which is particularly important for AI Agents that frequently require cross-chain resource calls.

Circle is navigating through its "golden fork." Fundamentals have raised its valuation multiples, ecological positioning has driven growth expectations, and AI Agent payments have opened up a blue ocean business.

In a world full of uncertainty, the best business is to become a deterministic infrastructure. Circle is at the intersection of settlement network hegemony and Agent currency sovereignty, preparing to print the first legal banknote for the imminent AI civilization, with the embryonic form of its "central bank of the digital economy" already faintly emerging.

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