There is nothing new; it is still a day influenced by geopolitical conflicts in the market. During the day, it was relatively okay; there were messages from both the United States and Iran indicating a possible ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz even saw some temporary stability. However, by night, complications continued. On one hand, there were reports that Iran allegedly spread mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and on the other hand, it was said that the U.S. escorted oil tankers through the Strait, but in reality, there was no escort, and it went on like this all day.

The war has been going on for almost two weeks now, and Iran's tenacity might exceed U.S. expectations. I checked a forecasting website regarding the probability of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran; a month ago it was only 33%, and only just over half a month before that. This means that the next half month may still maintain a fluctuating trend, and at the very least, stability in the Strait of Hormuz must be achieved to consider it a temporary easing.

However, today Trump did indeed ask Israel to stop attacking Iran's energy infrastructure, which is the first time the U.S. has made a request to Israel since the outbreak of war. This should mark the beginning of easing tensions between both sides.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, trading volume has decreased, turnover rate has increased, and investor sentiment is relatively poor, especially with the war still at a standstill and the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked. Moreover, oil prices are expected to rise, so the market's fluctuations are justifiable, and achieving any results in the short term seems difficult.

However, the chip structure is still quite good; there are no signs of panic selling. Earlier investors do not seem to be reacting much to the current prices. As long as there are no further negative developments, I personally believe that the possibility of a significant drop is low.

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