Waking up, oil prices have collapsed.

The oil price, which had surged to $110 per barrel yesterday, experienced a historic crash, plummeting over 30% in a single day and briefly falling below $84 per barrel, dominating discussions online.

The editor from Rhythm wrote an article titled Why does the rise in oil cause Bitcoin to fall? analyzing the relationship between oil and Bitcoin prices. Just as we discussed previously, with the sharp drop in oil prices this morning and a temporary easing of inflation expectations, Bitcoin rebounded significantly, returning to the $70,000 mark.

This once again proves Bitcoin's characteristic as a "liquidity thermometer." Once the "signal" of rising inflation caused by oil prices cools down, the market's fear of interest rate hikes will ease, liquidity expectations will revive, and Bitcoin will quickly regain lost ground.

This rise and fall also reflect the latest positioning of the Trump administration regarding the war situation.

Trump's comments last night and this morning showed a subtle yet crucial shift in attitude. Although he previously demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" firmly, in the latest press conference, he stated that the military actions of the U.S.-Israel coalition are "progressing very smoothly and ahead of schedule," hinting that major military objectives have been "basically completed."

At the same time, Trump also provided hints for a ceasefire, stating that this conflict will be resolved "very soon." Although he did not provide a specific timeline for a ceasefire, this posture of "mission almost accomplished" greatly alleviated market fears of a "protracted war" and "total war."

Meanwhile, worries surrounding the Strait of Hormuz also eased significantly this morning. The core logic behind the previous surge in oil prices was the market's concern about the potential closure of this channel through which nearly one-fifth of the world's oil passes. Today, Trump played a few cards on the supply side: announcing plans to deploy the U.S. Navy to escort oil tankers directly, considering exemptions for certain energy sanctions to offset the Middle East shortfall, and mentioning the mobilization of about 100 million barrels of oil from Venezuela into the market.

Simultaneously, the G7 finance ministers issued a joint statement indicating that member countries have reached a consensus and are ready to release emergency strategic oil reserves at any time. With multiple strategies in place, a significant amount of short-term speculative funds began to close positions and withdraw near the $120 mark.

Is Trump really seeking a ceasefire?

The early riser editor looked at several military analyses, most of which believe: much like the "justifiable war" at the start of the conflict, Trump is currently looking for a dignified "announcement of victory" and a way to withdraw troops to end military operations quickly and honorably.

From a military perspective, the U.S. military's initial "decapitation" actions against senior Iranian officials, as well as large-scale destruction of Iranian Air Force and Navy capabilities, have already achieved a "significant victory" militarily. Therefore, in the eyes of some analysts, as long as effective control over the Strait of Hormuz is established, whether through the intervention of U.S. military forces or U.S. security companies, it would be sufficient to ensure the security of the energy corridor.

This mentality of "taking profits" originates from the Trump administration's desire not to repeat previous mistakes. Trump is acutely aware of the complexity of the Middle East situation and is concerned that if ground troops are stationed long-term, it could result in protracted guerrilla warfare and civilian resistance, ultimately turning into a costly war of attrition as was seen in the Iraq War.

Driving Trump to seek a swift withdrawal is not only military judgment but also the more practical "pain points" from an economic perspective: oil prices and inflation.

The chain reaction brought about by skyrocketing oil prices has put considerable pressure on the U.S. domestic economy. With crude oil prices briefly surpassing $119 per barrel, domestic trucking costs in the U.S. have risen significantly, and this increase in logistics costs is being passed on to end consumers, leading to a general rise in prices. Trump understands very well that if oil prices cannot be quickly stabilized, uncontrolled inflation will directly threaten his political reputation and even expose him to attacks from opponents for poor governance. Therefore, triggering expectations of "the war will end soon" to curb speculative trading in the financial market, thereby prompting a collapse in oil prices back below $90, is a key strategy for him to alleviate domestic economic contradictions.

Additionally, this analysis believes that the domestic security situation and the agenda for the midterm elections are also influencing factors. There have already been signs of potential "sleeping cell" terrorist threats within the U.S., with arrests made in places like New York for immigrants making bombs. This domestic security turmoil triggered by the war is a push for Trump to "calm the situation."

At the same time, Trump is vigorously pushing for the passage of the Save America Act, attempting to create a pathway for the midterm elections through measures such as regulating citizen voting. For Trump, he prefers to concentrate his energy on elections and domestic governance, rather than lingering for a long time on a battlefield that may erupt with terrorist attacks at any moment and is burning money every day. Therefore, he needs to find a balance and withdraw troops quickly within the next week or two.

So, the framework we mentioned in our previous article now has a new variable: the duration of the war may be shorter than the most pessimistic expectations.

If Trump really finds that "announcement of victory" opportunity soon, the geopolitical premium of oil prices will accelerate its decline, the inflation narrative will ease, and the path for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will reopen. At that time, the liquidity expansion logic mentioned by Raoul Pal will no longer just be a mid-term expectation, but may come faster than most people anticipate.

The rebound of Bitcoin today may just be a preview.

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