The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on cryptocurrency market analysis, striving to provide the most valuable market information for cryptocurrency enthusiasts. Thank you for your attention and likes, and we refuse any market smoke screens!
With a wave of data released in the evening, it led to a bearish wave in the crypto market, which was very pleasing to the bearish users. Today's article still focuses on the questions from Lao Cui's circle of friends, why is this round of the war favorable for the cryptocurrency circle? In the market that everyone sees, only Iran's first wave of attacks led to the downturn in the crypto circle, while the next day, after the scale expanded, a strong rebound was welcomed? The initial decline is not difficult to understand; it is to avoid funding troubles and drive retail investor emotions to withdraw. The key point is the rebound of the second wave, which leaves many people in a state of confusion. In fact, it has no direct connection to the war, but rather an indirect effect. The performance of gold and US stocks, along with the stock markets of Japan and South Korea, has siphoned a wave of safe-haven funds into the crypto circle. Especially considering the uniqueness of the US and Iran; both are major powers in crypto assets and also energy giants, and the chemical reaction produced by their conflict is completely incomparable to that of other countries.
At the beginning of the war, Lao Cui mentioned these two points; the recent calmness has also led to mainstream opinions in the market, most surprisingly generating thoughts about interest rate hikes. These thoughts about interest rate hikes are nothing but a necessity to control inflation, as everyone is linking inflation with rate cuts. This directional strategy has indeed been followed by past presidents; a once-in-a-hundred-year big change has arrived, and everyone should not use traditional financial concepts to face the current stage of development. The prior financial prosperity was under the framework of the US, which formed the value investment that everyone advocates, and this value attribution is more sourced from the US capital. Currently, the pricing power of many markets is no longer in the hands of the US; new concepts are being re-formed. The growth of energy and commodities will indeed lead to inflation, while unemployment numbers are the main cause. The effects of interest rate hikes will feedback into the financial market, and the current strategy of the US is inherently to expand inflation.
Most cryptocurrency enthusiasts, during their journey, often lose sight of their original intention. Lao Cui still remembers that in the early days of Trump's presidency, the strategic goals set were more focused on debt reduction. Moreover, his thought process was also advancing towards this matter; debt reduction cannot be limited to a single market. It's very simple logic; if you only rely on cryptocurrency for debt reduction, then the only successful outcome for the cryptocurrency circle would be to give up its pricing power (imagining to reach a debt reduction scale), which means it would be counterproductive to give up a continuously profitable market for debt reduction. This also gives rise to a phenomenon; the subsequent weakening of the dollar makes the value of debt itself lower, causing US dollar assets to have a higher bubble. Using the bubble to reduce debt is the optimal solution; for this goal, there would be actions in Venezuela, Greenland, and Iran. Do not think that the US gaining oil pricing power will make oil prices cheap; a single pricing power will definitely create a monopolistic market.
Even if the US obtains Iranian energy, it will push up the corresponding prices; after all, it is an energy-exporting country, and making energy inflation is also its established goal. The growth of energy can affirm the dollar and also help domestic debt reduction, ultimately achieving the goal of surrounding the runner-up. For the US, this multi-beneficial objective is undoubtedly a strategy they will implement. Secondly, the value inflation of dollar assets has been passed by Congress for 25 years. Do you really think that these several trillion-dollar companies that have emerged in this world have this high a value? Whether it's Nvidia's graphics cards or the competition for future computing power, it is limited to the current gap, and its competitors are increasing indefinitely. Whether it's Microsoft or Google's big data capabilities, or the current breakthrough in AI chips, both pose impacts on Nvidia's future. What Lao Cui emphasized earlier is that Nvidia should not think about how high its market value can achieve at this stage, but rather prove to everyone that it indeed deserves this value.
The entire inflation of the US stock market is extremely bizarre. Looking back at the entire employment problem in the US, every year-end there is a downward revision of job numbers. Last year alone adjusted down by 800,000 jobs, and after the adjustment, the data nearly brought the annual job growth close to 0. This real data had already reached a conclusion when released by the US; everyone knows it clearly, yet there is still a strong push for the interest rate cut cycle. Its purpose is to raise stock market prices and attract capital inflows, which is the base tone for the US, and can only be adjusted if a huge uncontrollable event occurs. Many friends' investment thought processes are extremely naive, and their review capabilities are also very innocent. Military conflicts are indeed random events for ordinary people, and these conflicts may have already been on the agenda since Trump took office. Therefore, all prior strategic definitions are aimed at paving the way for the future; this is the cognitive difference between investment experts and novices.
When you cannot clarify your investment thoughts, look more at the investment methods of giants. Why did BlackRock and MicroStrategy make crazy purchases of BTC under 100,000? This certainly indicates that the future value of Bitcoin is above the 100,000 price point, and Trump's child's company is expanding its purchase scale, while everyone is also improving their blockchain channels and platforms, trying to integrate into the global stablecoin legislation. These measures are all derivatives of the cryptocurrency market; how can you still use the thinking of the 2010s to view the cryptocurrency market? Not to mention the cryptocurrency market, even the emergence of Nvidia has been sufficient for everyone to innovate their investment perceptions, and Lao Cui still hopes everyone can reconstruct their cognitive thinking. The domestic situation is similar. The responses are extremely sensitive, changing the GDP tone, making the internal circulation more stable; what can everyone think of this tone? The military expenditure is being cut; then what about the housing market? Lao Cui does not express a view on this matter; just observe your own understanding.
Lao Cui summarizes: Since Bitcoin set a short-term high of 74,000, the depth of the correction has only been to the 66,547 position; compare this with the previous fluctuations, it is extremely similar to the fluctuations on February 5, with the high at 73,341 and the low around 60,000. However, the downward rate and depth of the two are completely different; the previous round of decline had no significant support, but the repair ability was very strong. This time the downward rate has slowed, and the repair ability has weakened with clear support. What does this indicate? The market has become incomparable, and the rate cut has essentially been set, which shows significant similarity to the market conditions of 2024, with just a slightly higher price. It also clearly provides each of you with a directional indication in terms of trends, which is that the lower depth will not be too low. Comparing to the new low of 60,000, the current market trend has maintained a nearly one-month oscillating upward trend, exactly as we predicted at the beginning of the year; the low is getting higher, and the high is also getting higher, which is a trend of upward repair. Can a month's trend not awaken your dream of new lows? In Lao Cui's eyes, it is a perfect implantation of capital; everyone believes they have new lows, while Lao Cui is even more determined that new highs are appearing. Currently, the messages released in the market are mostly favorable, is this considered a warming-up for the early stage of a bull market? At the end of the article, if anyone has substantial questions, feel free to ask Lao Cui!
Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's words: Investing is like playing chess; skilled players can see five moves, seven moves, or even a dozen moves ahead, while those with lower chess skills can only see two or three moves. The skilled look at the big picture and strategize, not focusing on one piece of land but with the ultimate goal of winning the game, while the less skilled will fight for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, just fighting for short-term gains, suffering frequent setbacks as a result.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice; you bear the consequences of trading based on it!
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