After a day of relaxation on the weekend, the market's trends are as expected, still influenced by the war. Just today, Iran increased its retaliation against the United States and its allies, and tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. With Iran not fully prepared for a ceasefire, the Middle East began to cut oil production, mainly due to disrupted shipping. This is also a reason for the rise in oil prices, just looking at the trend of oil prices when the market closed on Friday says it all.

It feels like a quick end to the war is very difficult now; if the market were to close right now, I think oil prices could surge above 100 dollars. The rise in oil prices may lead to inflation, and the expectation of rising inflation is bearish for the overall risk market. So it is very likely that this weekend looks relatively calm, but if there are no signs of the war ending, it will be tough when CME and the US stock market open on Monday.

The best hedge against this war should be to go long on oil and gold.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the decrease in trading volume and turnover rate over the weekend is normal, as liquidity is at its lowest during weekends. Up to now, the price fluctuations of $BTC can reflect investors' sentiment toward the war. Trump began to believe that the war could end in the short term, and investors were willing to pay for a quick resolution. However, as the war continues and expands, investors still believe it may last longer, leading BTC to remain in a state of fluctuation.

But currently, investor sentiment is still good; most investors are not sensitive to short-term prices. However, the lack of market liquidity and declining purchasing power could lead to even small sales of chips driving prices downward.

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