Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.42 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59%, which is $1.42 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $31.28 billion, having increased by 1.17% in the last 7 days, with USDT making up 58.81% of that.
CoinMarketCap indicates that among the top 200 projects, most have risen while some have fallen; specifically: BTC has increased by 5.96% over the last 7 days, ETH has risen by 2.83% over the same period, SOL has increased by 2.31%, RIVER has surged by 71.07%, and BARD has risen by 76.66%.
This week, the net inflow for the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $568 million; the net inflow for the US Ethereum spot ETF amounted to $23.1 million.
Market Forecast (March 9 - March 15) :
BTC: $65,000-75,000 ($65,000 is a key psychological and capital support level; if it fails, it may drop lower)
ETH: $1,900-2,180 (may test previous low of $1,830 under extreme conditions)
SOL: $80-100 (SOL spot ETF has achieved a continuous net inflow of institutional funds for 23 days)
The current RSI index is at 44.46 (neutral range), the fear and greed index is at 13 (extreme fear), and the altcoin season index is at 45 (neutral, consistent with last week).
Unexpected job data cools down, rate cut expectations sharply rise: The number of non-farm jobs in the US for February was far below expectations, marking the first negative growth since 2020. This report has quickly raised market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. Theoretically, rate cut expectations are bullish for risk assets, bringing glimmers of liquidity improvement to the cryptocurrency market.
Stagflation panic hits simultaneously, leading to a market dilemma: However, things are not that simple. Almost simultaneously, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East escalated, causing international oil prices to surge, with Brent crude oil seeing its largest weekly increase on record. The coexistence of job shrinkage with robust wages and skyrocketing oil prices has sparked deep concern about stagflation in the market. In this environment, the Federal Reserve's policy faces dilemmas, and risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) are also pressured due to concerns about the economic outlook. Reports indicate that after the non-farm payroll report was released, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell over 4%.
Overall, next week the market will enter a macroeconomic data digestion period. The biggest risk is that stagflation panic continues to ferment, suppressing all risk assets; the greatest opportunity lies in the potential for liquidity improvement after market sentiment stabilizes and re-pricing of rate cut expectations occurs. SOL, due to its unique institutional fund inflow, may show some relative strength.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Highlights
Bitcoin rebounds strongly, breaking through $73,000
This week, the cryptocurrency market performed a V-shaped reversal, with Bitcoin rebounding strongly from weekend lows to break the $73,000 mark on March 5, setting a recent high. On March 4, Bitcoin briefly rose above $71,000, leading to over 120,000 liquidations across the network.
Ethereum returns to $2,100, mainstream coins generally up
As a market barometer, Bitcoin's stabilization directly activated market liquidity. Ethereum (ETH) recorded nearly an 8% rebound this week, successfully returning above $2,100. Other mainstream coins such as BNB, XRP, and Solana also generally rose over 4%.
Amid geopolitical turmoil, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative faces challenges
Last weekend's escalation of the situation in the Middle East led to a sharp decline in Bitcoin to $63,000. However, this week the market quickly recovered, even outperforming gold, which had fallen during the same period, causing some traders to begin viewing it as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical unrest.
Institutional funds surged, with a net inflow of over $680 million in two days
The strength of Wall Street has become the core variable for this round of rebound. Data shows that in just two trading days from March 2 to 3, the net funds flowing into US spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $680 million. Institutions' precise buying in the $65,000 to $67,000 range is viewed as the key support for the market rebound.
Trump calls for advancing cryptocurrency legislation, CFTC Chair responds positively
On March 4, US President Trump urged Congress to expedite the advancement of the cryptocurrency market structure bill. Following that, CFTC Chair Mike Selig responded that the "CLARITY Act" should be passed as soon as possible and stated that US perpetual futures linked to cryptocurrencies are about to be launched. The positive signals from regulation boosted market sentiment.
Macroeconomic data warms up, providing support for the cryptocurrency market
The latest ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released in the US maintained above 50 for two consecutive months, indicating that economic activity is in an expansion phase. Market analysts believe that improvement in the macroeconomy typically enhances investor risk appetite, providing funding support for risk assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.
Public chain ecosystems making collective efforts: Polygon hard fork and Astar voting
This week, significant progress was made across various public chain ecosystems. Polygon (MATIC) underwent the Lisovo hard fork upgrade on March 4. Astar Network (ASTR) initiated community voting on the economics of Token 3.0 on March 3. Additionally, Flare Networks conducted a themed presentation on XRP financial applications.
Market focus shifts to altcoins, but a broad rise still faces resistance
As Bitcoin stabilizes, discussions regarding altcoin season have heated up again. Analysts point out that there are signs of a breakout in the technical chart of the market cap share of altcoins. However, on-chain data also shows that around 38% of altcoin prices are still near historical lows, indicating that market interest in funding is weak, with a broad uptick facing resistance from excess supply and insufficient liquidity.
Coinbase expands its business, opening stock trading to all US users
This week, cryptocurrency trading platform Coinbase announced that it is opening stock trading features to all US users and has established a partnership with Yahoo Finance, allowing users to switch from researching assets on Yahoo Finance to executing trades on Coinbase with just one click. This marks a further transition for Coinbase toward becoming a comprehensive financial services platform.
Macroeconomics
On March 4, the US ADP employment number for February was 63,000, the largest increase since November 2025, exceeding market expectations of 50,000. The previous value was 22,000.
On March 5, the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 28 recorded 213,000, a new high since the week of February 7, which is lower than the market expectations of 215,000;
On March 6, the US unemployment rate for February was 4.4%, expected to be 4.30%, with the previous value also at 4.30%;
On March 6, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is 3.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 96.7%. The probability of maintaining the rate until April is 86.4%, the cumulative probability of cutting rates by 25 basis points is 13.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting rates by 50 basis points is 0.4%.
ETF
According to statistics, from March 2 to March 6, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $568 million; as of March 6, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.863 billion, currently holding $10.652 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $52.904 billion. The total market value of the US Bitcoin spot ETF is $90.366 billion.
Net inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF: $2.31 million.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
EthCC 9 will be held from March 30 to April 2, 2026, in Cannes, France. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of the largest and oldest annual Ethereum events in Europe, focusing on technology and community development;
The Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will take place from April 20 to 23, 2026, in Hong Kong, China;
TOKEN2049 Dubai 2026 will occur from April 29 to 30, 2026, in Dubai, UAE.
Important Events
On March 11 at 20:30, the US will announce the February unadjusted CPI year-on-year;
On March 12 at 20:30, the US will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 (in ten thousands);
On March 13 at 20:30, the US will publish the year-on-year core PCE price index for January;
On March 8 at 15:00, North America will begin observing Daylight Saving Time, with US stock trading starting one hour earlier;
The UK Financial Services Regulatory Authority has launched an investigation into stablecoins, with a deadline for submission of written opinions set for March 11, 2026.
Token Unlocking
Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on March 9, valued at approximately $3.71 million, accounting for 5.18% of the circulating supply;
Linea (LINEA) will unlock 137 million tokens on March 10, valued at approximately $4.44 million, accounting for 5.62% of the circulating supply;
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on March 12, valued at approximately $11.28 million, accounting for 0.69% of the circulating supply;
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on March 15, valued at approximately $5.08 million, accounting for 4.4% of the circulating supply;
Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.14 million tokens on March 15, valued at approximately $3.75 million, accounting for 1% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research is the core research institution of the Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to turning professional analysis into practical tools for you. We aim to analyze market trends through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports"; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + Expert Dual Screening) to identify potential assets while lowering trial and error costs. Each week, our researchers engage with you directly through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate through cycles and seize Web3 value opportunities.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly advise investors to thoroughly understand these risks and invest under a strict risk management framework to ensure funds safety.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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