Brothers, this is serious!

The Bitcoin has violently surged to 74,000, and Ethereum has skyrocketed by 5%. The market is in a frenzy, is the trend about to get better?

Next, the big player has to douse you with a cold bucket of water,

According to historical lessons: before 90% crashes, there will first be a wave of identical surges! In 2014, 2018, and 2022, all three bear markets followed the same script: first, a bull rush to lure in buyers, then a slaughter at the top, leaving a mess behind. This is all a calculation by big capital, it’s not a conspiracy, it’s all a strategy.

So here comes the question, brothers, why does a surge always come before a crash? The answer lies in these four aspects: 1. The main institutions lure people in at high prices to sell off their positions. Big money holds a lot of chips, and if they really want to cash out, they absolutely cannot crash the price directly; doing so would trigger panic selling, causing prices to collapse and they wouldn’t be able to sell at a good price. The only way is to pull off a big bullish move, creating the illusion of an "imminent breakout, the main upward trend is coming," allowing retail investors and sidelined funds to rush in, while the main player quietly sheds their chips at high levels; when the stock is sold out, and no one is there to take over, the crash will come immediately.

2. An overbought rebound is simply a flash in the pan. After the market falls for a while, many people are underweight or in cash; any small positive news can trigger short covering and bottom fishing, resulting in a vicious V-shaped rebound that appears as if it's about to reverse. But the overall trend, fundamentals, and liquidity remain unchanged. When it hits resistance, the trapped positions and profit-taking will converge to push it down, innovating new lows, this wave of growth is just a "springboard" for the decline.

3. Short squeezes with counter-kills, the cruelest tricks of the operators. If there are too many shorts in the market, the price rises slightly, triggering short stop-loss orders and forced closing positions. This passive buying sends the price skyrocketing. In the past 24 hours, the liquidation amount was 470 million dollars, of which 90% were short positions. However, brothers, although it seems that bullish momentum is overwhelming now, this buying wave is not genuinely favorable; many shorts are just forced to close, and once the shorts are covered, real selling pressure will immediately take over, leading to a crash. The stock market circuit breakers in 2020 and crypto flash crashes in 2022 all follow this script.

4. Illusions created by derivative mechanisms. This is common in US stocks and the crypto circle, where a large number of put options force market makers to buy coins passively for hedging. The more the price rises, the more aggressive the hedging becomes, forming positive feedback and explosive increases. However, once the options expire, the hedging demand disappears and the price falls directly. It looks like a lure for buyers, but in reality, it’s a "false prosperity" caused by the mechanism. The only exception was in December 2018, when the market remained flat for nine months without falling, and the main players had no choice but to crash the market to clear the long leverage; otherwise, they would have to work for retail investors. Such cases are rare.

In summary, it can be stated: If big capital wants to exit safely, it must create the illusion of a surge to trick the last wave of people into taking over, and when the inventory is sold out with no one supporting the price, a crash is an inevitable result. This is a natural outcome of profit-seeking behavior that exploits information differences and the herd effect, and is certainly not a coincidence.

After reviewing the above logic, looking at today's market conditions becomes clear. Bitcoin shot up to 74,000, Ethereum broke past 2,200, and everything is in the green. The fear and greed index is skyrocketing, making it look like a big market is coming; however, in my view, risks are imminent.

The core driver of this rally is the regulatory expectations combined with the return of funds. Looking deeper, it's not just a simple lure; in beautiful capital, Trump strongly supports the crypto legislation, the SEC has issued regulatory guidelines, the White House crypto summit is set for March 7, and strategic reserves in crypto are set to be implemented, completely eliminating regulatory uncertainty, allowing institutional players to enter the market. Hong Kong will issue the first batch of stablecoin licenses in March and open up a compliant framework for perpetual contracts. The EU's MiCA regulations will be implemented at the end of the month, accelerating global compliance. This is genuine positive news.

On the funding side, South Korean foreign capital is fleeing, and some safe-haven funds are entering crypto. The selling pressure from Bitcoin ETFs is easing, and institutional funds are coming back into the market. Ethereum is also starting to make moves, with daily active addresses hitting a ten-year high and new wallets increasing by 280,000 daily. The expectations for staking and ETF are also at their peak, providing the space for operators to exploit.

But brothers, do not get carried away; this wave of increase is a corrective rebound, not a reversal. The short-term RSI is already overbought, and prices are too far from the moving averages, with plenty of profit-taking possibilities, and the Federal Reserve hasn’t cut interest rates; liquidity has not been fully opened up. Big money is reluctant to go all in; this wave of increase is a combination of positive news fulfillment and a bounce from oversold levels, so it’s absolutely crucial not to chase highs and get caught.

When the market rises sharply, people often get restless, making it easy to chase at the peak. Remember the words of the big player: control your positions, operate in batches, don’t be greedy or anxious.

For Bitcoin, 74k-75k is a high-pressure line, and breaking through in the short term is difficult. Chasing high prices is likely to get you washed out. The best strategy is to take short positions in batches within this range, waiting for the main players to distribute. With strong support observed around 70k-71k, as long as this range holds, bulls won’t collapse. If it pulls back to support, enter with smaller positions; don’t chase the uptrend.

Ethereum is completely following Bitcoin's lead, with no independent trend. The resistance above is at 2200-2250, while support is at 2060-2100, with strong support at the 2000 mark. The operation strategy is the same as Bitcoin; just do the linked trades without putting in extra effort.

Short-term trading strategy is mainly high shorts with lower longs. Open short positions near 74000 which have a higher win rate than bottom fishing; if you must go long, wait for the support levels at 70000-71000. Lastly, I emphasize again that in a market like this with a bear trend, leverage should never exceed 5 times; otherwise, you will surely face disaster. The big players can easily move the market by 3,000 to 5,000 points at any moment; if you use 50 to 100 times leverage, tell me how much capital you need to withstand the big players' strikes?

Brothers, currently the market is: simultaneous scripts of repair rebounds and "caution against lures"; the good news is real, but the risks are also real. Investing is like simmering a soup; don’t increase the heat if the timing isn’t right. Now, don’t be anxious about missing the opportunity and don’t blindly promote bullishness.

What we need to do is to recognize the main player's strategies, not to chase after surges, not to panic during corrections, and to wait for clear signals before taking action. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is surviving capital. Rest assured, the trends that should come will not be absent; avoid dealing with trades that shouldn’t be taken. Let’s go with the flow! Alright, if you haven’t followed yet, please do so, and the big player will help you slowly become wealthy! #NewLeaderInIran #CryptoMarketRebound #Trump15%GlobalTariffsWillTakeEffectThisWeek #WoshNominatedIsItPositiveOrNegative #TrendingTopics

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