The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profits going away! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to friends in the cryptocurrency community. Welcome to all friends in the cryptocurrency community for your attention and likes, and we refuse to deceive the market with smoke screens!   

Bitcoin has finally returned to Lao Cui's comfort zone, and stabilizing at seventy thousand seems to have become a foregone conclusion; today, I also looked at the news, which mostly released positive information, including content related to interest rate cuts. All of this completely aligns with our previous speculations. Before this, Lao Cui was almost standing on the opposite side of all practitioners and was relieved to finally see the market rebound. For the future market, everyone can wait for the breakthrough of 75,000; it will not be far, just a matter of the next few days. Secondly, the breakthrough trend aimed at March is to at least stabilize at eighty thousand, which can be considered Lao Cui's prediction. Regarding this prediction, what sets Lao Cui apart from major analysts can also be directly told to everyone, which is that many friends overlook the key factor of Russia. Perhaps the swift conflict between Iran and Israel has caused people to begin forgetting the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

This key factor lies in the fact that both Russia and Iran are supporters of cryptocurrency. Iran directly recognizes Bitcoin's linkage to military sales and even energy, while Russia accepts settlement in energy and Bitcoin. At the same time, in recent strategies, Russia has re-embraced the dollar system. Since Iran blocked the Gulf, the performance of Japanese and South Korean stock markets has been extremely worrying, with South Korea even triggering a circuit breaker directly. Many friends find it difficult to link this information directly to the cryptocurrency circle. Perhaps everyone has forgotten the rapid depreciation rate of Iran's fiat currency; their currency has become worthless, and therefore, when trading with them, they themselves will not recognize their fiat currency. As for trading in dollars, it is sanctioned by Trump. Thus, there arises a problem regarding their energy exports and Russia's direct outputs: how to exchange? Domestically, equivalent goods or infrastructure can be used; after all, it is the largest industrial country.

But how do you make countries like South Korea and Japan trade? Germany is a typical example; its over-reliance on Russian energy has directly led to a surge in domestic natural gas and oil prices, which in turn has led to uncontrollable inflation. The result is that the Chancellor took all the capital back home for help. This is a chain reaction, and it was also revealed a few years ago that the energy trade between Russia and Germany used Bitcoin payment, which are solid examples. So, will Iran's energy also adopt this method? Clearly, it is also a country that supports Bitcoin payments; this is a possible option. From the recent fluctuations, it is certain that a transaction has already been completed, though it remains unclear with whom. Perhaps your rebuttal includes another option: gold, which can be completely avoided. The traceability of gold cannot escape American monitoring; its massive scale is not suitable for trade between sanctioned countries.

Considering these viewpoints, Bitcoin's function will be infinitely amplified in the short term, and you can also see signs from the recent fluctuations. During this time, I emphasized one point yesterday; as the conflict began, while Bitcoin saw a wave of risk-averse capital withdrawal, as the situation in Iran became clearer, the recovery was almost unprecedented; this recovery, you can observe the K-line, has no obvious pressure, and the bullish assault is almost step by step. After standing firm at 71,000 today, there was no significant pullback, and it didn't even touch seventy thousand. The subsequent fluctuations are all around one thousand points in testing; this is not an ordinary counterattack. Meanwhile, in Lao Cui's observation of on-chain data, the actions of giants like BlackRock and MicroStrategy show that their final intervention still occurred around the 2nd, and the wallet data from the 3-4th shows no incoming. So who is buying in this wave? This data presentation is quite interesting; the short-term increase in Bitcoin reaching more than ten thousand points in fluctuation cannot be driven by retail investors.

This article is divided into two time periods; after taking a nap, the market has already broken above 74,000 and Ethereum's 2200, although not as rapid as the previous wave of growth; fortunately, the trend has not changed. Bitcoin and Ethereum's Asia trading session correction depth remains insufficient, and the upward momentum is still strong. At the same time, both Japanese and South Korean stocks have shown a phase of rebound, and gold has too; the post-recovery market impact on the cryptocurrency circle is somewhat significant. However, in the current downward trend, there has been no appearance of suppression strength, which means there's still support below, and there is no obvious pressure above. This morning, I took a look at MicroStrategy's movements, where in yesterday's upward trajectory, data showed the purchase of 1,000 coins. This is noted; it's not that they hadn't bought in these two days. Goldman Sachs predicts that the Bank of England will cut rates by 25 basis points in April, July, and November, previously forecasting cuts in March, June, and September. Predicting the Bank of England's rate cut rhythm will also become America's trend.

Everyone should not overlook the issue of interest rate cuts; the activation of the cryptocurrency circle will likely be linked to the rate cut rhythm. Almost the entire world is affected by the recent strait of Hormuz and will experience a certain degree of inflation. The rise in oil prices is not necessarily good news for energy-exporting countries. Although America is also an exporter, oil prices will link many industrial cost increases, and due to the decrease in American tariffs, this has a substantial negative impact on their profits. Where this money will be compensated still needs to be observed through future strategies; we do not have significant energy transactions with America, as their exports are nearly all covered by European buyers. Even if America starts producing more oil, exporting it remains a factor they need to balance, while the issues displayed by America are also very clear, such as job fabrication, market bubbles, trade exports, failed strategic objectives, and the resultant domestic inflation is formed. Everyone needs to remember that America is currently implementing a weak dollar strategy; as dollar assets begin to decline, it contradicts their strategy entirely, which can define their strategic goals as failures.

Lao Cui's summary: Looking at it as a whole, the growth of the cryptocurrency circle is likely to encounter certain breakthroughs in the short term, and this short-term trend is difficult to change. Now, discussing market trends and talking about oscillating upward seems somewhat excessively conservative; the performance over the past two days appears more like a unidirectional upward trend. I also provide data for everyone to focus on this year's Russian fiscal deficit; Russia's re-entry into the dollar system is a tremendous benefit for the cryptocurrency circle, at least flows of assets worth hundreds of billions into the crypto market will occur. They are merely entering unilaterally; the sanctions from Europe and the US against them have not ended, and for them, recognizing dollar assets might be more about integrating into the cryptocurrency system, likely taking the form of stablecoins, followed by Bitcoin and Ethereum. Pay attention to the minting volume of USDC, which has also surged recently. America is diligently promoting stablecoins, primarily to resolve trading issues with these sanctioned countries; it can now be confirmed that the future of stablecoins will certainly break through a trillion in market value, so any cryptocurrency using stablecoins as a vehicle will appreciate. Perhaps the turning point between the bull and bear market has already begun. Lastly, I remind everyone that the current market is not a unidirectional upward trend; it continues to oscillate upward, and reaching 75,000 is merely a matter of time. Do not chase, as a pullback will occur.

Original content created by WeChat Public Account: Lao Cui talks about coins. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like chess; masters can foresee five steps, seven steps, or even ten steps ahead, while amateurs can only see two or three steps. The skilled consider the overall situation, strategize for the greater trend, do not value one piece or one territory, and aim to win the game ultimately. In contrast, amateurs fight for every inch, frequently shift between longs and shorts, only contend for short-term trades, and end up frequently trapped.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Any trading based on this is done at your own risk!

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