The opinion is that almost everyone is against the counter-trend, and the value of the airdrop is not as good as the platform's fee income?

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

TGE Time Continues to Be Delayed, Leading to a Further Drop in Off-chain Price of Points

In February this year, raised another $20 million in financing, Opinion was once considered the most anticipated airdrop of 2026

The narrative of the prediction market continues to heat up, garnering significant attention for Opinion before the TGE. Coupled with endorsements from top VCs and deep ties to the Binance ecosystem, the market once viewed it as one of the most anticipated airdrop projects of 2026.

In terms of financing, Opinion completed two rounds, raising a total of over $25 million. In March 2024, the project was selected for Yzi Labs' 7th season MVB accelerator program, becoming one of the 13 early projects. In March 2025, Opinion completed a $5 million seed round led by Yzi Labs, with participation from Echo, Animoca Ventures, Manifold Trading, Amber Group, and others. By February 2026, Opinion announced it had completed a $20 million Pre-Series A financing led jointly by Hack VC and Jump Crypto, with participation from Primitive Ventures, Decasonic, Continue Fund, and others.

Continuous support from multiple leading institutions led the market to develop higher expectations for its airdrop scale and potential valuation.

TGE Originally Scheduled Before the Spring Festival, but Constantly Delayed Due to Market Conditions

In December 2025, Opinion founder Forrest mentioned in the official Discord that the project was expected to conduct TGE before the Spring Festival. This statement quickly ignited the community's enthusiasm, and many users began to "work overtime" to brush points and frequently participate in various prediction events to increase trading volume. As the competition for points intensified, some users even found their point-brushing costs exceeding $20/point, just to accumulate more points before TGE, hoping to claim the first "big prize" of 2026.

Opinion founder previously stated that TGE would occur before the Spring Festival

However, after entering February, the entire crypto market experienced a significant correction, and Opinion’s TGE timing began to become uncertain. The TGE, originally expected before the Spring Festival, remained elusive, and the market’s expectations for points cooled down. Although on February 4, Binance launched the Opinion-related Binance Wallet Booster and Alpha airdrop activities, the official still did not release a clear TGE timetable. As expectations gradually cooled, the off-chain OTC price of Opinion points fell from a high of about $45/point to $20/point.

As the TGE date was continuously postponed, community sentiment began to turn negative. Some users started questioning the project’s progress in the community, but in the official Discord, any apparent negative voices were often quickly removed from the community. Some dissatisfied users even turned to other prediction market project communities, such as predict.fun, to continue voicing their grievances about Opinion's various issues.

Opinion community members venting in other prediction market project communities

The constant postponement of the TGE date, continuous dilution of points, and arbitrary removal from the official community led to a growing dissatisfaction within the Opinion community. Points were continuously increasing, transaction fees were continuously being spent, but when the project would perform TGE and how much it would ultimately be worth, remained increasingly unanswered.

Airdrop Allocation Sparks Controversy: Only 3.5% of TGE Airdrop Shares Unlocked, Marketing Portion Unlocks Up to 7.7%

After Token Model Release, Price of 1 Point Plummets to $6

On the evening of March 2, the Opinion foundation officially announced the tokenomics of its native token OPN. The total supply of OPN is 1 billion, with airdrop accounting for 23.5% (235 million). At first glance, this ratio does not seem low among current crypto projects.

However, what truly sparked controversy was the actual unlock ratio of the TGE. Of the total airdrop shares, only 3.5% (35 million) is released on the day of TGE, with the remaining portion to be released linearly over 7 months. This means that for the vast majority of point-brushing users participating in the airdrop, the actual number of tokens they could receive on TGE day was far below earlier market expectations.

What further dissatisfied the community was the unlock ratio of other allocation portions. According to the official token distribution, the marketing portion accounts for 8.9%, but 7.7% is released on TGE, significantly higher than the release ratio for airdrops. In contrast, users who participated in early interactions and contributed trading volume could only receive 3.5% on TGE day.

This comparison quickly sparked controversy in the community—users who engaged in early interactions and contributed trading volumes could only receive a minimal amount on TGE, while marketing-related shares could be released in higher proportions upon launch. Meanwhile, Binance Launchpool directly received 2% of the token supply, further intensifying community dissatisfaction.

Additionally, the internal holding ratios of the project further exacerbated community dissatisfaction. According to the token distribution, investors account for 23%, teams and advisors for 19.5%, and the foundation for 12%, totaling over 54%.

OPN Token Unlock Illustration

After the tokenomics announcement, market expectations swiftly changed. Previously, OPN points had been quoted at $45/point in the secondary market. With only 3.5% airdrop on TGE, the off-chain OTC price of Opinion points rapidly plummeted, with pre-market quotes quickly falling to $6/point.

Moreover, many “airdrop hunters” spent real money on transaction fees to brush points, only to be left disappointed. According to feedback from community members, 1 point ultimately corresponded to $6, but many top-ranked users received airdrop values even lower than this level. KOL 带带带比特 posted on the X platform detailing their losses: spending $200,000 to brush points, ultimately receiving 2,000 OPN tokens, which when calculated at current prices amounted to about $1,000. “$200,000 for 2,000 tokens. Yes, you read that right.” This statement quickly went viral in the Chinese crypto community.

What further struck the community as ironic was that according to Dune data, Opinion had accumulated over $17 million in revenue from transaction fees over the past few months. And calculated at current market prices, the value of the TGE airdrop was even lower than this figure.

Opinion's cumulative revenue from fees exceeded $17 million

Summary

From being "the most anticipated airdrop of 2026" to being teased by the community as "almost all participants getting burned," Opinion's storyline reversed in just a few months. Although Opinion founder Forrest recently stated that they will place more emphasis on the rewards for Season 2, for many early participants, the results of the Season 1 airdrop have severely drained trust.

Opinion founder emphasizes that they will place more importance on S2 rewards

This sentiment has quickly reflected in user behavior. An increasing number of participants are choosing to reduce or even halt trading on the platform, and on-chain data has shown a marked decline. The platform's TVL has plummeted from about $150 million to $36 million, and trading volume has dropped from $150 million to about $15 million, with user activity significantly cooling down.

Against this backdrop, the controversy surrounding Opinion extends beyond just airdrop issues. As one of the most watched prediction market projects in the BNB Chain ecosystem, this incident has also had a considerable impact on the entire sector.

After this turmoil, will the BNB Chain ecosystem still be able to produce new prediction market platforms?

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