Last week's data already mentioned that institutions are very worried about the private credit issue, and today we see from Goldman Sachs' data that the open interest in put options on credit ETFs has reached a historic high.

In plain language, the market's concern about credit defaults is no longer just talk; it's real money being wagered. Although this doesn't mean that defaults will happen immediately or certainly, if we say that the biggest concern for institutions right now is neither war nor inflation, but credit defaults, if they occur, it is very likely to lead to a new recession.

Therefore, the current attitude of institutions is very clear: gradually reducing holdings in risky assets, increasing cash reserves, going long on gold, and going short on credit.

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