Recently, due to the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, my investment thoughts have shifted. I have allocated some funds to "short the euro and long oil," and this strategy has proven to be quite stable.

Currently, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has focused the market's core attention on the game in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy artery where one in every five barrels of oil passes through. Moreover, Qatar is the world's number one liquefied natural gas exporter, with almost 100% of its LNG needing to transit the Strait of Hormuz. By 2025, approximately 20% of global LNG trade is expected to go through this channel.

Thus, the logic of financial market considerations becomes straightforward, focusing on two core points: the flow of safe-haven funds and the return of inflation expectations.

1️⃣ Why short the euro (EUR/USD)?

Firstly, the ultimate safe-haven property of the dollar. The current logic is “when the world is in chaos, it's good for the dollar.” When gold appears “less safe” due to high US Treasury yields, global funds’ first choice is the dollar.

Secondly, energy cost killer: Europe is a net importer of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices rise, production and living costs in Europe soar, and the trade deficit directly drags down the euro.

Finally, the market anticipates a rise in US inflation, prompting hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve. The secondary inflation risk from rising oil prices continues to delay expectations of Fed rate cuts. In contrast, the European economy is fragile; if the European Central Bank is forced to cut rates to support growth, a weaker euro becomes a relatively certain outcome.

2️⃣ Why long oil?

This logic is very simple and straightforward, not much to elaborate on, it’s a typical geopolitical premium logic. With the throat being choked, the Strait of Hormuz bears 20% of global oil supply. As long as there's a slight disturbance in this area, bears would not dare to hold positions overnight; as long as the situation does not ease, oil remains the hardest currency.

In the face of the current global geopolitical landscape, #Bitget is my best all-in-one arsenal. Most of my recent operations have been conducted on Bitget. One of my favorite points is the one-stop hedge for all investment positions, achieving an all-scenario investment layout.

For instance, shorting the euro and longing oil, along with recently favorable defense stocks due to the war (such as Lockheed Martin) or energy stocks (like ExxonMobil), can all be managed seamlessly on Bitget, providing a very smooth experience.

The current fee rates are also very enticing, lasting until April 30. Newcomers to US stocks can receive 10 USD after completing their first transaction. Additionally, the 0-fee incentives are quite sincere, with a 0 fee rate for stock contracts on the Maker side and only 0.0065% for the Taker side. Precious metals (gold and silver) also have a 0 fee rate for Makers. Compared to traditional US stock brokers, this almost drives trading costs to the floor, saving every penny in fees results in real profit.

In summary, as Churchill once said, do not waste a crisis. Every crisis hides opportunities; the greater the crisis, the greater the opportunity! This Middle Eastern geopolitical conflict represents a huge opportunity arising from a crisis. Grasping it well often leads to unexpected gains!🧐

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