Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher（@Asher_0210）

Last night, Nasdaq submitted a rule change proposal to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to launch an options contract that allows investors to make a "yes or no" judgment on major stock indices.

According to the document, Nasdaq intends to list "binary options," also known as "outcome-related options," based on its flagship products—the Nasdaq 100 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Micro Index. If approved, this will be the first time Nasdaq officially launches products with predictive market attributes.

This move signifies that traditional securities exchange giants are proactively entering the rapidly growing predictive market sector.

What are binary options?

The proposed contract pricing range is from 1 cent to 1 dollar, with the price itself directly reflecting the market's judgment on the probability of a certain outcome occurring.

For example, if a contract revolves around "whether the Nasdaq 100 index meets a certain condition at a specific point in time," then:

• If the market believes the probability of that outcome is 80%, the price may be close to 0.8 dollars;
• If the condition is met at expiration, the contract settles at 1 dollar;
• If the condition is not met, the contract value goes to zero.

If traditional options are betting on "how much it will rise or fall," binary options are more concerned with "whether it will happen." There are no complex parameters, no range calculations, only the outcome itself. This all-or-nothing settlement method makes trading more like making a clear judgment about the future.

Because of this, such products are form-wise closer to predictive market logic.

Why choose Nasdaq 100?

Nasdaq's choice is not an ordinary index but one of the assets most sensitive to market sentiment. The Nasdaq 100 has long been regarded as the core indicator of the U.S. technology sector, with constituent stocks concentrated in major companies like Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, etc. These companies almost every quarter become the focus of the market; a financial report, a regulatory announcement, or even a policy statement can quickly be reflected in the index's trend.

The high concentration of constituents causes the Nasdaq 100's performance to often revolve around a single focal point. For a period, the market may bet on AI expectations, then shift to interest rate paths or policy changes. During earnings reports or periods of intensive policy announcements, the index usually reacts to market judgments in a relatively short time rather than through prolonged back-and-forth.

Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 itself has a mature derivatives trading base, with ample liquidity and a sound pricing system. Launching new structured products on this underlying asset is manageable in terms of risk and more likely to gain market acceptance.

Two ways traditional exchanges can enter the market

Nasdaq is not the first traditional exchange to express interest in predictive markets. In October 2025, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, announced a strategic investment of about 2 billion dollars in Polymarket, holding approximately 20% of the shares, with the trading valuation peaking at around 8 billion dollars.

The NYSE's approach was not to launch its own predictive product but to enter the field through capital participation and data collaboration. Its core intention is to acquire real-time probability data generated by predictive markets and incorporate it into institutional service systems. For the NYSE, predictive markets serve more as a supplementary emotional indicator and data asset.

In contrast, Nasdaq's approach is more direct. It chooses to embed binary structures into its core index product line, extending within the existing trading framework. Compared to investing in external predictive market platforms, this method means predictive trading is incorporated into standardized securities product systems rather than just being an external data source.

The differences in the two strategies reflect traditional exchanges' varying judgments in the face of new trading structures.

Predictive markets begin to be integrated into traditional exchange product systems

Regardless of whether the SEC ultimately approves this proposal, Nasdaq's submission of the rule change application has already released a clear signal—predictive trading is no longer just an experiment on crypto platforms or niche markets but is beginning to be incorporated into the product systems of traditional exchanges.

For a long time, mainstream derivatives have revolved around price fluctuations, with investors assessing the magnitude and time window of rises and falls through different structures. Binary options simplify the question to whether the outcome is valid, shifting the focus of trading from magnitude to the conclusion itself.

Once the Nasdaq 100 index is incorporated into this type of contract structure, the trading logic becomes more straightforward. What the market focuses on is no longer the magnitude of price changes but whether a certain outcome can be fulfilled. The price reflects not just volatility, but the consensus on the probability of the outcome.

For Nasdaq, this represents an extension of its product line. For predictive markets, this marks the beginning of its structure being formally accepted by mainstream systems. If this product ultimately materializes, it could become a connection attempt between traditional derivatives and event-based trading.

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