On February 28, the United States and Israel jointly struck Iran, and Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in the airstrike.

Since Trump openly challenged Iran in early January and commanded an aircraft carrier to the Middle East, the question of "when will there be a strike" has never ceased. Almost everyone has been saying, "A strike is imminent," but very few can clearly indicate "which day a strike will definitely occur."

Of course, there are indeed people who can provide exact dates and are willing to bet real money against non-believers. These individuals are insiders such as soldiers and intelligence personnel currently on alert aboard the aircraft carrier, waiting to strike.

For these insiders holding confidential information, the prediction market Polymarket has become the best channel for them to monetize their insider knowledge: here, they can bet on whether a certain event will occur, and if their prediction turns out to be correct, they can earn profits based on their bet amount and real-time odds.

To those with a distinct information advantage, such betting has already predetermined the outcome from the start.

Betting on Military Actions, the Three Brothers on the Battlefield Made $1.6 Million

For the past two months, "Will the U.S. strike Iran by a certain date?" has been the core trading topic in the prediction market. In this market, three accounts collectively profited over $700,000 by betting that "the U.S. would strike Iran before February 28."

Two of these accounts were newly registered in February and had no other trading records besides betting on Iran-related events—it was almost as if they were created for this event: betting on the strike, waiting for it to happen, then profiting by leaving.

The third account is even more special. This account was created on June 17, 2025, and began betting on "the U.S. will take military action against Iran" on the same day. On June 22, Trump announced strikes on three core nuclear facilities in Iran, earning this account $256,000 in profits. For the next six months, the account had no trading records—until just before this round of strikes, it became active again, betting that Iran would be struck and earning another $301,000.

The signs are already quite clear, but the story is not over.

After Iran was struck by a joint U.S.-Israeli attack on February 28, these three accounts did not stop. They shifted their newly gained $700,000 to bet that "Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei will resign on February 28." At this point, there were less than 12 hours left in February, and Iran's official statement had just announced that "Khamenei would address the nation regarding this attack." To most traders, this appeared to be a very high-risk bet.

The final outcome is well-known: Khamenei was killed in the airstrike. The three accounts collectively made about $1.6 million from bets related to the strike on Iran. The monitoring channel PolyBeats has continuously tracked and reported their betting activities since February; each bet was made before the event occurred, bringing the progression of the conflict to public attention in advance.

The First Criminal Case in Prediction Market Insider Trading

Similar situations occurred during the "Twelve Day War" last June. The difference is that the insider traders at that time were ultimately identified and convicted. This is also the first case in the history of prediction market insider trading to leave a formal criminal record.

In mid-June 2025, during Israel's strikes on Iran, an account named ricosuave666 accurately bet on the timing of the strikes and peace talks, profiting $150,000. After cashing out, this account then went silent for a long time until it became active again on January 6, 2026, betting that Israel would strike Iran.

However, this time the situation quickly reversed. Due to its "prophetic" perfect trading operations, ricosuave666's return to the prediction market and further betting on the same topic spread widely.

Having its insider trading activities exposed is likely the last thing an insider wants to see.

Thus, the day after placing the bet, the account liquidated its holdings and changed its name to Rundeep, trying to avoid attention. On the 12th of the following month, Israel's Ministry of Defense, Israel's Internal Security Agency, and Israeli police jointly announced the arrest of the two citizens behind the account, on charges of serious security crimes, bribery, and obstruction of justice.

Investigations revealed that ricosuave666 was operated jointly by a reserve soldier of the Israel Defense Forces and a civilian: the reserve soldier utilized confidential operational intelligence obtained during service to relay information to the civilian, who then placed bets on related military actions at Polymarket.

Similar to the three accounts appearing in this round, PolyBeats identified ricosuave666 as a suspected insider holding confidential information just one hour after the account placed its bet on January 6, tracking its betting, liquidation, and name change actions continuously.

On the day ricosuave666 was arrested, Roy Yanovski, head of the criminal affairs department and a reporter at Israel's public broadcaster Kan News, stated in a news segment on Channel 12: "Israel's enemies are using the prediction market Polymarket as an important source of military intelligence."

This assertion is not unfounded; the three accounts involved in the recent Iranian strikes serve as a testament. Even with the precedent of ricosuave666, for some frontline personnel trading their lives for money, the threat of imprisonment is not enough to deter them from using military secrets for high returns.

The combination of blockchain and prediction markets creates a dual structure: on one hand, the anonymity of on-chain addresses provides insiders with a channel for monetization; on the other hand, the public transparency of on-chain transactions allows all operations to be traced, analyzed, and interpreted.

When transaction data is opened to everyone, as long as someone can understand these unusual betting behaviors, they may foresee the outlines of the future before the events actually occur.

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