I'm a long-term Bitcoin bull who has recognized the short-term headwinds since Nov.'25 at $97k.

Unlike other long-term Bitcoin bulls, I will not post "bottom is in" charts every week to justify my long-term outlook.

On the contrary, I'll be prudent, strategic, & patient.

Why?

Because, "short-term headwinds" for Bitcoin are brutal.

Even during bull markets, price has historically experienced multiple 20% corrections and even -30% corrections within the context of an uptrend.

In bear markets, they don't last for weeks or months...

They last for quarters.

I'm not saying that this bear market will last for quarters.

Maybe it will, maybe it won't.

But I'll tell you what...

I'd rather be prepared for it to last for quarters and be pleasantly surprised, than be prepared for it to last for only a few months and then be disappointed.

You see the difference, right?

Just because something HAS happened in the past, doesn't guarantee that it MUST happen in the present.

Just because something HASN'T happened in the past, doesn't guarantee that it WON'T happen in the present.

But I think it's important to use historical data nonetheless.

To be prepared.

To develop & execute plans.

To diagnose the environment & optimize.

It's like when I shared the breakdown below the 2-day 200 moving average cloud...

Every single bear market for Bitcoin began with that breakdown and resulted in an average decline of -58% after the breakdown.

That breakdown occurred at $97k.

So I did the math...

And said... "hmmm, the average decline would suggest a downtrend towards $41k."

I also saw that every bear market fell to the 200-week moving average cloud.

At the time of the breakdown, the range was $55k-$65k.

So that has helped to set expectations.

But then I saw that the 2022 bear market fell -30% below the 200W MA cloud.

So how should I reconcile that?

I prepared for a retest of the 200W MA cloud and told myself that I'd buy there because bear markets have ended there in the past, but I should also be prepared for more downside and a potential breakdown below the 200W MA cloud.

How much lower?

-20% to -33% lower.

So that would put price targets of $37k to $44k.

Okay, nice!

So that gets us to the average -58.5% decline after the breakdown below the 2-day 200 MA cloud!

Then I decided to look at the behavior with the long-term holder realized price (LTHRP), which has always been a magnet for price during a bear market.

Where's that currently trading?

$41,700.

Wow, isn't that something...

We've now used data to measure the weight of the evidence and conclude that a logical, data-backed, and objective outcome is for price to likely trend towards $40k.

Maybe a little higher.

Maybe a little lower.

But I also have to recognize...

Just because this data has existed in the past doesn't guarantee that it will happen again in the current environment.

So yes, I'm bearish based on this data and the fact that we've been in a downtrend since I called it out in real-time in mid-November.

But I can't hold my breath waiting for a retest of $40k because there's a chance that the historical data may not actually repeat and $40k won't actually come.

So I can't box myself into a corner, only waiting to buy on more downside.

I must have conditions in place to buy in the event that the bear market is over faster than the historical data would suggest and price doesn't fall as much as it did in past bear markets.

How do I solve this problem?

I buy on a breakout above the 2-day 200 moving average cloud (which is roughly the 55-week MA cloud).

If the 2-day 200 MA was my line in the sand to officially flip bearish, which has been effective, then it should also be effective to the upside.

Now I have a plan.

Now I have a baseline expectation.

Now I have an invalidation criteria to adapt.

Now, I'm allowed to execute based on data rather than emotions, protecting myself from making rash decisions under emotional distress and panic.

No matter what happens, I'm ready.

Thanks to data.

Thanks to historical facts.

Thanks to the ability to adapt.

This isn't even 20% of the work that I've done and what I shared back in November when I wrote my "Bear Market Playbook".

I haven't even mentioned price structure, key levels, accumulation signals, or other important metrics.

When I sprinkle those on, I'm even more prepared.

Embrace nuance.

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