🔥 Event Review

Recently, the global market has once again experienced severe fluctuations due to sudden geopolitical events. The United States and Israel announced a joint military strike against Iran, with multiple reports indicating that Israel acted preemptively, and significant targets in Iran were hit by missile attacks. Trump also publicly confirmed U.S. involvement in the operation. This series of events instantly triggered market panic, causing a sharp decline in crypto assets, including Bitcoin. Some institutions and retail investors faced forced liquidations, massive capital outflows occurred, and market risk-averse sentiment sharply escalated, leading to violent downward volatility.

⏰ Timeline

• 14:10: BTC is at a high point, with a price of about $65,560, and market sentiment is strong.
• 14:16: Sudden news emerges, with US and Israel conducting preemptive strikes against Iran, and the situation suddenly becomes tense.
• 14:30: On-chain monitoring indicates that approximately $100 million worth of crypto long positions were forcibly liquidated in the past 15 minutes, leading to increased selling pressure.
• 14:37: Some data shows that the price of Bitcoin drops below $64,000, with a daily decline of about 3.2%.
• 14:42: Further reports emerge that the BTC price approaches $63,000, and panic sentiment spreads.
• 14:53: Officials confirm that the U.S. and Israel are jointly conducting airstrikes on Iran, continuing to heighten market uncertainty.
• 14:55: The BTC price plummets to about $62,980, with a cumulative decline of nearly 4%.
• 15:11: Israeli defense officials announce a four-day intensive joint strike operation, with the situation escalating further.
• 15:14: Media reports repeatedly highlight "Bitcoin plummeting," further spreading market panic sentiment.
• 16:05: After a sharp drop, BTC briefly stabilizes and rebounds to about $63,703.9, indicating the market is seeking support during the correction.

🔍 Reason Analysis

The analysis of BTC's severe fluctuations can be primarily attributed to two core reasons:

1. Escalation of Geopolitical Tensions

• The joint strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran have led to a sudden deterioration in the Middle East situation, with global risk-averse sentiment heightened.
• The policy and military risk transmission effects are evident, coupled with related public opinion continuously fermenting, leading to a rapid withdrawal of funds from risk assets.

1. Liquidation of Leverage Positions and Risk Management Responses

• The sudden emergence of geopolitical news has significantly increased market uncertainty, prompting some institutions and retail investors to quickly trigger forced liquidation mechanisms for leverage positions, creating a "selling effect."
• The chain reaction has led to a sudden decrease in liquidity, further exacerbating price declines and volatility dissemination.

📈 Technical Analysis

Based on the 45-minute candlestick chart of Binance's USDT perpetual contract, this BTC market demonstrates obvious extreme bearish characteristics:

• Bollinger Bands and Moving Average Performance

• The current price is hovering along the lower Bollinger Band, indicating extreme lows and deviation from the average.

• The price is below MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and EMA5, EMA10, EMA20, EMA50, EMA120, with the moving averages in a bearish arrangement, indicating weak bullish power and a dominant bearish market.

• Volume and Momentum Indicators

• Trading volume surged by 102.69%, and the current volume is far above the 10-day and 20-day average, indicating a spike in selling pressure.

• The MACD histogram is gradually decreasing, and downward momentum is increasing; the RSI indicator is in the oversold region, with a potential short-term rebound signal, but overall, the downward pressure remains significant.

• Other Technical Indicators

• TD price reversal and engulfing pattern appear in some candlesticks, suggesting potential reversal possibilities, but the overall bearish strength is strong, and an effective support at the bottom of the fluctuation has yet to form.

🔮 Market Outlook

The current situation is complex, with short-term BTC price volatility mainly influenced by the panic sentiments triggered by the U.S.-Israel joint strikes against Iran. Looking ahead:

• If the U.S.-Israel military actions continue and the situation does not show obvious alleviation, the market may remain depressed, and uncertainty will drive risk-averse capital towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
• Although technical indicators show some oversold signals, whether the short-term stabilization and rebound can continue still carries significant risk; investors are advised to closely monitor subsequent news and changes in on-chain positions.
• In the current high-volatility environment, controlling positions, strictly limiting losses, and staggered allocation will be important strategies for prudent investment, while also paying attention to the latest dynamics of global situations and policies.

Overall, this round of BTC plummet is both a direct reflection of geopolitical risks and a result of the combined effects of leverage and liquidity depletion. Investors should remain highly vigilant, respond rationally to market fluctuations, and avoid blindly chasing gains or cutting losses; prudent positioning in a high-uncertainty environment is the long-term strategy.

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