📝 Event Review

Recently, the ETH market experienced severe volatility. From the large-scale sale of ETH by Ethereum founder Vitalik, to the explosion of chain leverage liquidations, and the forced liquidation of large long positions under high leverage, multiple negative signals have collectively impacted market confidence. At the same time, macroeconomic and policy uncertainties have also intensified market panic. Overall, the entire market feels like a shockwave following a heavy blow, with extreme fluctuations and filled with uncertainty.

⏰ Timeline

• 02-23 08:42: Major sell-off news hit the market, Vitalik began to sell ETH in large quantities, adding supply pressure to the market.
• 02-23 08:56: In just 8 minutes, the ETH price rapidly dropped from about $1942 to $1888, a decline of 2.79%, triggering widespread panic.
• 02-23 09:03: ETH broke through the key support level of $1900 and continued to drop about 1.46% within 5 minutes, showing intense selling pressure.
• 02-23 09:10: Leverage trading risks exploded, with over $154 million in long positions being forcibly liquidated in the past hour, triggering a chain liquidation effect.
• 02-23 09:16: A big player opened a long position of 1700 ETH with 25x leverage, betting on a short-term market rebound, but risks escalated significantly.
• 02-23 09:18: The market continued to fluctuate, and due to the chain liquidation effect, long positions further encountered liquidations, with cumulative losses exceeding $28.8 million.
• 02-23 09:35: After a round of intense fluctuations, the ETH price temporarily stabilized at about $1873.29, but overall market sentiment remained gloomy.

🔍 Cause Analysis

1. The risks of leveraged trading are constantly magnifying
   Leveraged trading can bring excess returns when the market is favorable, but once the market starts to decline, the liquidation effect can amplify like an avalanche. According to on-chain data, over $154 million in long positions were liquidated within just one hour, with multiple traders facing liquidation, creating a vicious cycle that further drives down prices.

2. Macroeconomic and policy uncertainties
   Recent macroeconomic data and policy news keep emerging—divergences in the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, adjustments to tariff policies, and fluctuations in U.S. core PCE data all make the market cautious about future economic trends. This uncertainty in the external environment further intensifies investors’ panic, prompting funds to prefer quick exits.

📈 Technical Analysis

Based on Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT 45-minute candlestick data, we can observe the following points:

• The current J indicator shows extreme overselling, suggesting a possible short-term rebound opportunity in the market;
• Trading volume surged, up 183.19% compared to the 10-day average, indicating that buying power in the market is starting to show, but at the same time prices remain in a weak range;
• A Doji candlestick pattern appeared, which often indicates a potential trend reversal when the market is hesitant;
• Multiple moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and EMA series) show that prices are on a downward trajectory and form a perfect bearish arrangement, indicating weakness in the short, medium, and long terms;
• RSI is in the oversold area, indicating that prices are close to the lower boundary, technically suggesting some rebound signals, but the overall trend still requires vigilance.

🔮 Market Outlook

The current market remains shrouded in gloom under multiple negative shocks. In the short term, although technical indicators (such as RSI and J value) suggest that the market may experience a technical rebound, leverage liquidations and macro uncertainties may impact prices again. Investors need to closely monitor the following aspects:

• The divergence between market trading volume and prices to confirm whether a real reversal signal is coming;
• Major market news and policy directions, such as changes in U.S. macroeconomic data and global trade policies;
• Subsequent large position liquidation situations to prevent chain effects from triggering extreme volatility again.

It is advised that market participants remain cautious, reduce leverage operations, pay more attention to technical aspects and changes in capital flow, and adjust position allocation as needed. Although future trends are still full of uncertainties, investing at low points and diversifying risks may provide some protection for stable operations.

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