Encrypted Market Secondary Fund MVC February Market Observation Guide

1/ As the Chinese Lunar New Year arrives, I wish all readers a happy and prosperous new year.

2/ From the market perspective, although positions were cleared last year, the lifeless cryptocurrency market still causes concern. As of now, there are no signs indicating the end of this round of deep adjustments. The clearing of large leveraged positions at the end of January has only temporarily created demand through significant volatility, further accelerating the clearing of old cryptocurrency chips.

3/ Looking ahead, we are not optimistic about short-term cryptocurrency assets, but overall, we tend to view this adjustment as a continued consolidation since the end of 2024. For Bitcoin, which has led dollar assets for two consecutive years, this adjustment has not changed the upward trend since 2022. In terms of international markets, we are optimistic about the performance of non-ferrous related industries in the capital market and some companies benefiting from AI disruption throughout the year.

Overview and Review of Overall Market Trends

The market is lackluster; we have seen further declines in Bitcoin and increased trading volumes, although we have also observed optimistic signals:

① Despite the surge in trading volume, the outflow data is manageable, and the foundation of cryptocurrency ETFs remains intact;

② MSTR does not face any actual liquidation or financing pressure;

③ On-site liquidation data is relatively mild compared to 1011;

However, the market has not provided positive reasons, and we still see U.S. stocks positioned high, continuous bleeding in cryptocurrencies, and a dire situation where the endogenous liquidity of the dollar does not progress but regresses. Thus, there is little to expect in the short to medium term for cryptocurrency, which is the main reason we did not provide a separate observation on the cryptocurrency market in January.

However, we are more inclined to view the market since November 2024 as Bitcoin's consolidation following a new high against the backdrop of disrupted dollar endogenous liquidity. For a major asset class, this trend suggests the potential for a magnificent future. From a fortune-telling perspective, we optimistically speculate that the consolidation of cryptocurrency assets will enter a new allocation cycle in Q3-Q4 of this year, with subsequent market levels not falling below this round of silver.

In addition, we are particularly optimistic about the directions in global asset trends for the entire year of 2026, including:

① Non-ferrous metals as a category represented by Latin American and RMB resource stocks;

② Benefiting targets in AI disruption industries, prominently represented by China and the U.S.;

Standing at the starting point of 2026 and the Year of the Horse, our perception of the world's disparities is more profound than in 2025 and 2024, as the world's production order rapidly iterates, while the silent majority may face the helplessness of having their decades of efforts taken away overnight by a single occurrence. This round of opportunities in the capital market might be the best chance for most people who have no opportunity to transform themselves into AI sensors. The significant opportunities in non-ferrous metals that occur every 15 years will also begin in 2026. Let’s strive together.

Once again, I wish everyone a smooth journey and success in all endeavors.

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