The first day of the weekend has passed uneventfully, just as expected yesterday. After all, the two important data points this week, non-farm payroll and CPI, performed unexpectedly, boosting investor sentiment. However, the primary focus remains on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Even though the CPI data is very impressive, the CME's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is still less than 10%, and economists predict that there will only be three rate cuts by 2026.

Of course, my view on this data remains unchanged. The economy is one thing, but Trump is another. If June is when the Federal Reserve makes its first rate cut in 2026, then three cuts would be quite good, considering there are only four Federal Reserve meetings left after June and only two before June, which are in March and April. The probability of a rate cut in March seems very low at the moment, and the probability for April is now also less than 30%.

It seems the market's confidence in Powell is not very strong, or perhaps Powell anticipates that after his retirement, Trump will strongly demand a rate cut. Therefore, he tries to keep the interest rate stable while still in office. Regardless, the trend toward monetary easing in the United States is unquestionable; it's just a matter of time.

Looking at Bitcoin's data, today is the first day of the New Year holiday, which is also the first day of the long weekend in the U.S. A decrease in liquidity is very normal, and the turnover rate is not high. Starting from Sunday, it is likely to drop even lower. At such times, as long as there are no unexpected issues, it's better than anything else. I even specifically checked if Trump would say anything crazy, but fortunately, apart from his usual rants, there was nothing. Moreover, the issue of the Department of Homeland Security's shutdown is not significant; only a few people have been affected.

The chip structure remains very healthy. Although it has broken through two support levels consecutively, there has been no panic sell-off among investors at these levels. This is the biggest change this cycle; there wasn't much movement during the decline. Next, it will be interesting to see if there will be a reaction if the price goes up.

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