Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.36 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.3%, totaling $1.37 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $30.79 billion, with an increase of 2.16% over the past 7 days, of which USDT accounts for 59.66%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, half saw an increase and half a decrease, including: BTC with a 7-day decrease of 1.99%, ETH with a 7-day decrease of 1.5%, SOL with a 7-day decrease of 3.64%, PIPPIN with a 7-day increase of 229.46%, and H with a 7-day increase of 56.35%.
This week, the net outflow from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $358.9 million; the net outflow from the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $161 million.
Market Prediction (February 16 - February 22):
BTC: $66,000-70,000
ETH: $1,880-2,120
SOL: $75-100
The current RSI index is 55.7 (neutral zone), and the Fear and Greed Index is 8 (extreme fear, down from last week), with the Altcoin Season Index at 45 (neutral, up from last week).
As a strong rebound triggered by favorable regulations was just experienced this past Friday, market sentiment is boosted in the short term; however, there is clear technical resistance above. It is expected that next week, the market will fluctuate while digesting positive news and macro data guidance, leading to an initial consolidation followed by a delineation of direction. Therefore, the strategy must remain flexible, controlling positions and focusing on buy low and sell high, while closely monitoring breakthrough signals from macro data.
The market next week will not operate independently, and attention should be paid to the following variables:
Macroeconomic Data: Keep an eye on U.S. economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials; any hints regarding interest rate policy will affect risk assets.
ETF Fund Flows: Whether Friday's rebound can attract institutional funds back is key to the sustainability of the rebound. If ETFs continue to see significant outflows next week, the rebound may falter.
Regulatory Developments: This week's remarks by the U.S. Treasury Secretary represent a significant benefit; future attention should be paid to Congress's discussion progress on the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Review
On February 8, cryptocurrency journalist Eleanor Terrett revealed details of the White House crypto meeting scheduled for next Tuesday. This meeting is the second round of a series of meetings and will still be at the staff level, not inviting CEOs from various companies, but senior policy staff from banks will attend;
On February 8, Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua published a statement after selling off ETH under his Trend Research, stating, "First of all, I acknowledge that market cycles remain valid. In this new phase where the U.S. stock market is strong and cryptocurrency treasury (DAT) coexists with ETFs, the consensus in the crypto community has not been broken, combined with a market that can be easily manipulated. However, on the other hand, entering a bear market in crypto is also the best timing for layout, just like we harvested in the previous bear market. The future is bright, and I am optimistic about the next round of bull market opportunities in the industry, and will continue to work on Building. The pessimists are correct, but the optimists will prevail.”;
Yi Lihua's Trend Research completely exited ETH, incurring total losses of approximately $688 million;
On February 8, according to Etherscan data, the number of transactions on the Ethereum network rose to 2,896,853 yesterday, setting a new historical high;
On February 10, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin published an article updating his systematic thinking regarding the intersection of Ethereum and artificial intelligence, emphasizing that we should not pursue AGI through "indiscriminate acceleration," but deeply integrate the values of crypto and AI to build an AI future that is beneficial for human freedom, security, and decentralized collaboration;
On February 9, even when Bitcoin rebounded close to $70,000, its derivatives market was still sounding warning signals. Traders remained defensive in their positions, with almost no signs of new long positions;
On February 9, even when Bitcoin rebounded close to $70,000, its derivatives market was still sounding warning signals. Traders remained defensive in their positions, with almost no signs of new long positions;
On February 11, according to official news, LayerZero announced the launch of Layer 1 blockchain network Zero;
On February 11, according to CoinDesk reports, Le Jae-won, CEO of South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb, stated that due to a lack of appropriate internal control measures, the platform mistakenly transferred Bitcoin worth over $40 billion into customer accounts, while the amount originally planned to be distributed was only about $428. Most of the funds have been recovered;
Bithumb acknowledged that a severe internal system vulnerability led to the erroneous transfer of about $40 billion in Bitcoin to customers. This error briefly triggered a 17% drop in Bitcoin prices on the Bithumb platform and prompted an investigation by the Financial Supervisory Service of South Korea, while exposing the exchange's deficiencies in asset matching and account isolation controls. Although Bithumb has recovered most of the Bitcoin, 1,786 Bitcoin sold before the accounts were frozen have not yet been retrieved, exacerbating legislators' concerns about weak regulation.
Macroeconomics
On February 10, U.S. retail sales for December recorded 0%, expected 0.4%.
On February 11, U.S. unemployment rate for January stood at 4.3%, slightly lower than the expected 4.40%, and previous value 4.40%.
On February 12, initial jobless claims for the week ending February 7 were 227,000, expected 222,000, with the previous value revised from 231,000 to 232,000.
On February 13, U.S. non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year dropped from 2.7% to 2.4%, marking the lowest since May 2025, with the market's median expectation at 2.5;
On February 13, according to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 8.4%, and the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 91.6%.
ETFs
According to statistics, from February 9 to February 13, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow amounted to $358.9 million; as of February 13, GBTC (Grayscale) had a cumulative outflow of $25.909 billion, currently holding $10.713 billion, with IBIT (BlackRock) currently holding $52.522 billion. The total market value of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is: $90.458 billion.
U.S. Ethereum spot ETF net outflow totaled $16.1 million.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Meetings
ETHDenver 2026 will be held from February 17 to 21 in Denver, USA;
EthCC 9 will be held from March 30 to April 2, 2026, in Cannes, France. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of Europe’s largest and oldest annual Ethereum events, focusing on technology and community development;
The Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held from April 20 to 23, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
Project Progress
Bitcoin mining company Bit Origin’s compliance deadline has been extended to February 16, 2026. If Bit Origin fails to regain compliance by this time, NASDAQ will notify Bit Origin in writing that it will be delisted;
Upbit will delist Groestlcoin token GRS, and will still support withdrawals for 34 days (until February 19, 2026) after the termination of trading support.
Important Events
Belgium's KBC Bank announced that starting the week of February 16, it will provide cryptocurrency buying and selling services for private investors through its online investment platform Bolero;
On February 19 at 21:30, the U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14 (in ten thousand);
On February 20 at 21:30, the U.S. will publish the year-on-year Core PCE Price Index for December.
Token Unlocks
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on February 15, valued at approximately $5.97 million, accounting for 4.61% of the circulating supply;
Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.55 million tokens on February 15, valued at approximately $4.12 million, accounting for 1.03% of the circulating supply;
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on February 16, valued at approximately $10.08 million, accounting for 1.82% of the circulating supply;
YZY (YZY) will unlock 62.5 million tokens on February 17, valued at approximately $20.96 million, accounting for 17.24% of the circulating supply;
LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.7 million tokens on February 20, valued at approximately $48.33 million, accounting for 5.98% of the circulating supply;
KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 32.53 million tokens on February 20, valued at approximately $10.25 million, accounting for 10.64% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research serves as the core research and analysis institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to converting professional analysis into your practical tool. We analyze market trends through “Weekly Insights” and “In-Depth Research Reports”; with the exclusive column “Hotcoin Selection” (AI + Expert dual screening), we lock in potential assets to reduce trial and error costs. Each week, our researchers will also meet you face-to-face via live streaming, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and grasp value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly recommend investors to fully understand these risks and invest under strict risk management frameworks to ensure the security of funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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